ed_rex
in
canpolitik
Dion Triumphant
(Note: I'm posting this in response to suitablyemoname's recent post here, in which he asked for opinions as to who would be leading the Liberals five years down the line. I chose to start an entirely new thread rather than post a response there, because I reject his thesis and so think I would have been off-topic.)
suitablyemoname began with the following.
Increasingly, it seems to be a common view that Stephane Dion will probably not be leading the Liberal party in five years' time.
As usual, the common view is wrong.
I said this in my own journal shortly after the leadership convention, and I stand by those words: not only will Stephane Dion still be leading the Liberal Party five years from now, but he will be doing so as the Prime Minister of Canada leading a majority government. (For the record, I am not a Liberal, have never voted Liberal and will almost certainly not be voting for them in the next election.)
Why do I think Dion will lead the Liberals to a majority government?
First, because I believe he is "a man of both conviction and flexibility, who seems to know when to draw the proverbial line in the sand and when to compromise." He is also a doggedly hard-worker who (like Harper, actually) understands that there is more to politics than just providing sound-bites on television. Over the past year or so, while the chattering classes have been writing his political obituary, Dion has been quietly re-building his party and networks across the country, not just talking to people, but listening to them.
Second, although (also like Harper) he doesn't have much going for him in the charisma department, unlike Harper, he doesn't come across as either perpetually angry or petulantly petty. Harper's not-so-hidden hard-right agenda aside, I think most Canadians would not want that man to baby-sit their children for a night, let alone their country for five years.
Third and finally, the politics. Steven Harper won't win the next election simply because he does not share the political values of most Canadians, and most Canadians know it, no matter how much he has downplayed his real politics due to his position as the leader of a minority government.
Long story short: the forthcoming election will see Dion's liberals shock our pundits with a tough, well-organized and intellectually coherent campaign that will be tactically effective and politically palatable to a plurality of Canadians large enough to grab a majority in the House of Commmons.
You read it hear first, folks!
suitablyemoname began with the following.
Increasingly, it seems to be a common view that Stephane Dion will probably not be leading the Liberal party in five years' time.
As usual, the common view is wrong.
I said this in my own journal shortly after the leadership convention, and I stand by those words: not only will Stephane Dion still be leading the Liberal Party five years from now, but he will be doing so as the Prime Minister of Canada leading a majority government. (For the record, I am not a Liberal, have never voted Liberal and will almost certainly not be voting for them in the next election.)
Why do I think Dion will lead the Liberals to a majority government?
First, because I believe he is "a man of both conviction and flexibility, who seems to know when to draw the proverbial line in the sand and when to compromise." He is also a doggedly hard-worker who (like Harper, actually) understands that there is more to politics than just providing sound-bites on television. Over the past year or so, while the chattering classes have been writing his political obituary, Dion has been quietly re-building his party and networks across the country, not just talking to people, but listening to them.
Second, although (also like Harper) he doesn't have much going for him in the charisma department, unlike Harper, he doesn't come across as either perpetually angry or petulantly petty. Harper's not-so-hidden hard-right agenda aside, I think most Canadians would not want that man to baby-sit their children for a night, let alone their country for five years.
Third and finally, the politics. Steven Harper won't win the next election simply because he does not share the political values of most Canadians, and most Canadians know it, no matter how much he has downplayed his real politics due to his position as the leader of a minority government.
Long story short: the forthcoming election will see Dion's liberals shock our pundits with a tough, well-organized and intellectually coherent campaign that will be tactically effective and politically palatable to a plurality of Canadians large enough to grab a majority in the House of Commmons.
You read it hear first, folks!