following up on sunday night's discussion
s: so who will Obama pick for VP?
candid: you already asked me this question
s: yes, do you care to revise your answer?
candid: sebelius [this was my original answer]
s: ok, good to know :-)
candid: if it's biden, I'll be very unhappy
s: yes, i know
s: and that's what intrade is predicting i think
candid: "predicting"
s: heh
s: but i know how you feel about him
candid: last I checked he was trading around 0.3
candid: I would interpret that as intrade predicting "not Biden"
s: ok, have you checked recently?
candid: yesterday
s: well, he's ahead of everyone else
s: by a fair bit
candid: he is still trading around 0.3
s: yes
candid: which means "not biden" is trading around 0.7
s: yes
s: i understand how it works
candid: I am just arguing
s: yes, i understand how you work
candid: that biden at 0.3 does not mean the market is predicting biden
s: the market is favor biden over anyone else
candid: sure
candid: the same way that if I buy two lottery tickets and everyone else buys one, I have the highest chance of winning the lottery
s: yes, joel, i understand these things
candid: this is a topic I feel strongly about
s: probability?
s: and properly understanding it?
candid: yes, but more specifically "misinterpretation of prices in prediction markets"
s: ok, fair enough
s: my language was too loose, but i do get the ideas
candid: I guess my hangup
candid: is the "the most likely candidate" does not mean "the likely candidate"
candid: but people tend to talk as if they are the same thing
candid: you already asked me this question
s: yes, do you care to revise your answer?
candid: sebelius [this was my original answer]
s: ok, good to know :-)
candid: if it's biden, I'll be very unhappy
s: yes, i know
s: and that's what intrade is predicting i think
candid: "predicting"
s: heh
s: but i know how you feel about him
candid: last I checked he was trading around 0.3
candid: I would interpret that as intrade predicting "not Biden"
s: ok, have you checked recently?
candid: yesterday
s: well, he's ahead of everyone else
s: by a fair bit
candid: he is still trading around 0.3
s: yes
candid: which means "not biden" is trading around 0.7
s: yes
s: i understand how it works
candid: I am just arguing
s: yes, i understand how you work
candid: that biden at 0.3 does not mean the market is predicting biden
s: the market is favor biden over anyone else
candid: sure
candid: the same way that if I buy two lottery tickets and everyone else buys one, I have the highest chance of winning the lottery
s: yes, joel, i understand these things
candid: this is a topic I feel strongly about
s: probability?
s: and properly understanding it?
candid: yes, but more specifically "misinterpretation of prices in prediction markets"
s: ok, fair enough
s: my language was too loose, but i do get the ideas
candid: I guess my hangup
candid: is the "the most likely candidate" does not mean "the likely candidate"
candid: but people tend to talk as if they are the same thing