Apocalypse Now

[cambro]

I'm teaching an environmental science class this semester, which means that I'm up to my ears in utterly depressing stories of destroyed ecosystems and hopeless futures. I'm trying to keep things chipper, and focus on functional ecosystems as much as dysfunctional ones, and to emphasize possible solutions to our problems....but, man, there's not

Comments

[cambro]

In many ways, I agree. There was a bit of deliberate hyperbole in that "significant chance that civilization will collapse" statement. However, I do think there's a significant chance that our way of life will undergo major changes that we won't like.

Economics and greed will indeed be the main things that will save us, to the extent that we get saved. I'm just worried their effects won't really kick in until the infrastructure has already taken some major kicks to the teeth, and that those infrastructure problems will make it hard to properly implement the new ideas. I'm also worried that the profit motive won't necessarily lead the innovators to real solutions...at least not initially. Misguided subsidies and pork-barrel money may initially reward "solutions" that are as bad as, or worse than, the original problems. Ethanol, for instance, seems problematic at best for lots of reasons, and gasoline itself wouldn't have quite such a stranglehold if massive subsidies weren't making it appear cheaper than it actually is.

I'm also less optimistic about nuclear and electric cars and such than you seem to be, although I won't pretend to be an expert on either subject. (I wasn't aware that nuclear is making a comeback; have new plants been commissioned?) The problems you mention in the developing world, apart from being horrible humanitarian crises in their own right, may come around to bite us in ways we haven't anticipated. You can also add the loss of whole ecosystems into my personal sense of dread, although I realize that in some ways it's just my personal hangup, since the average American is better able to live with such things than I am. (However, I think that the economic and social impact of all those ecological changes is going to be bigger than many people expect. Witness the recent NYT story about collapsing fish stocks creating new groups of displaced, illegal-migrant fisherman.)

If the next president, whoever he or she is, decides to launch a renewable energy Apollo Project, then I might start to feel better. Otherwise, given the myopia and sense of entitlement of Americans in particular and people in general, I'm not convinced that even enlightened self-interest will save us from some seriously unpleasant situations. I agree that it's not going to be Cloverfield , though-- at least in the sense that a 30-story-tall squid-bat-slug-mantis monster will not be stepping on your neighborhood anytime soon.

[derekasaurus]

I share your concerns, and I agree that terrible economic policies (like dirt cheap subsidized gas) make market forces far less effective engines of change, so I'm not expecting an efficient transition.

I don't think nuclear power is a silver bullet. It only accounts for about 17% of domestic electricity generation, probably in large part because the last plant was started in 1972 (and not fully completed until 1989). No one in the U.S. has attempted to build a new plant in 30+ years, but five applications were submitted in 2007, so that seems to be changing. That's not exactly a Mighty Ducks comeback, but it's a start.

While nuclear power alone won't save us, any upswing in energy sources that don't fuck the atmosphere - nuclear, solar, wind, etc. - is good news. I can't think of a single power source that doesn't come with a lot of not-in-my-backyard syndrome, so things will get worse before getting better, but rising energy bills and rolling blackouts will probably change minds. It's like you said, the infrastructure will probably have to take some kicks to the teeth before people really notice.

I also don't think electric cars will be our salvation, in large part because they will put more strain on our already faltering electrical generation capacity, but again, it's encouraging to see the work being done. It's a step in the right direction. If nothing else maybe if fusion finally comes through in 50 years we'll have vehicles on the road that can take advantage of it. :-)

In short, I feel that many technological advancements from the last quarter century have given us the tools to change our society. It will take serious damage before those technologies are implemented, so folks like us will have to keep buying CFL bulbs and not driving SUVs in the meantime. :-)