[cfuw, game 1, day 1]

Sep 15, 2005 02:58

Hey, Eva?

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 10:01:22 UTC
Good evening, Uotani Arisa.

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 10:03:19 UTC
Ossu.

Okay, long story short: I don't think you're a wolf.

But I think you are being set up to be voted out as one.

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 10:06:14 UTC
Well, that makes two of us then, doesn't it? I agree there.

Have you heard anything else from the shepherd?

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 10:12:00 UTC
No... I doubt anyone will until the next 'round', so to speak.

I don't think you're the wolf... because if you were, the other two wolves would be running back up. Trying to get suspicion detracted away from you. But as is, there's no reason to suspect you and not, y'know, Excel for acting like a lunatic. (Business as usual. Heh.)

So, we've picked out four 'safe' people. You, me, Momoko, one other person I've been chatting with... (Ying) and that's it, so far. The suspicion is Riddle's a wolf... but it's only a suspicion for now.

What do you think?

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 10:19:12 UTC
Why do you think Ying is a sheep? For the record, I have my own reasons for agreeing. And I suspect Riddle as well. I think the other two wolves are relying on him to discredit me so that when the vote comes down to the two of us--which it undoubtedly will--I'll be the one ousted and you'll be down two sheep when morning comes.

I was told who voted for me first, although I would have known anyway. Haruno Sakura. I believe she is a sheep.

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 10:26:50 UTC
I was the first one to vote her out.

When it happened, her response was a more denying: "I'm not a wolf."

Compare that to Riddle's: "What reason do you have to believe I'm a wolf?" ...therefore, I trust her. (It's a gamble though, not denying that.)

You believe Sakura is a sheep? For any particular reason? She's been arguing with me a little... here.

This makes me think she may be a wolf with Riddle, but... what's your reason for thinking she's a sheep?

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 10:41:03 UTC
I believe Huang Yue Ying is a sheep because if we're assuming the wolves have voted for me, I'm fairly certain her votes's not among them. I was the second to vote. Ying posted her surprise at having a vote almost immediately after it showed up, suggesting that she too voted early so the poll was showing in her window when it happened. Most likely she was Wednesday Addams's first vote. One of Wednesday's votes was transferred to Tom Riddle almost immediately after Ying had an argument with him about him transferring blame to me. Ying's current vote is in for Riddle--and so she's not a wolf. That's my logic ( ... )

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 10:52:50 UTC
I switched my vote to Wednesday at one point... then I was the first to vote for Riddle. Ying has reported she's been the third person to vote for Riddle.

Hmm.... possible... either she's being overly paranoid, or she is a wolf. I wouldn't say she's suspicion-less, but at the very least no reason to suspect her too much yet.

Riddle did talk to Ari a little about Al, here. He's also trying to put a little suspicion on Excel... which suggests she's safe. (Too bad she's psychotic.)

At any rate, we're certain you're not a wolf, so we'll do our best to ensure Riddle's the one that's out... even if he turns out to be a sheep somehow, we'll gain more from knowing that than having you gone.

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 11:05:02 UTC
I voted for Riddle and changed my vote to Alphonse Elric, and then back. I do suspect Alphonse still, but more based on gut feeling than actual evidence.

She seems an overly-paranoid and suggestible sort to me in general, but as you say, nobody is without suspicion!

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 11:09:18 UTC
That's a shame...

All right, I think we've got organized as well as we can...

The main question now is: "How do we convince people to vote for Riddle and not you if the public comments by themselves aren't enough?"

You got any questions for me, while you're at it?

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 11:16:25 UTC
I'm considering making a public comment about some of what we're discussing here tomorrow afternoon to see if anyone listens. I'm not sure they will. I'm also revising my opinion on Sakura, considering what's happening in the post as we speak.

Only if you have any other information or suspicion you haven't shared. Since we both got the same clue in the e-mail, I hardly suspect you of anything.

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 11:24:17 UTC
Yeah, it might be wise. You, me, Ying, AND Momoko can't all be wolves, and if we reveal ourselves completely, it adds trust, because why would the wolves reveal themselves?

But... we'll have to plan it, a little. Saying it the wrong way could mess everyting up... at any rate, I think it's a little too early. It's better to wait until the wolves are down to two, because then they have to be careful about being seen to cooperate together and can be easier voted out at the same time.

...problem with that is you or me may be just as dead.

Heh. You really did get that clue? I was wondering... for a moment.

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 11:29:44 UTC
There is risk--if we reveal ourselves and we're right, the chances are high that one of us will be "killed" right away. But at this rate, that's likely anyway!

I did, yes. Of course there's not much I can say to convince you. But I was told the Angel was with me in the flock.

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 11:34:02 UTC
Nah. I believe you.

If Sakura was a wolf... then she's effectively made you, me, and Momoko safe from dying by saying we're lying about Momoko being safe. ('Cause if we did, we couldn't be the wolves, could we?) So, they're banking on getting us voted out... IF Sakura is a wolf and not confused. O'course.

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bloodtwosugars September 15 2005, 11:38:06 UTC
That's an excellent point. I die, I'm not a wolf, you and Momoko are essentially validated for the rest of the game. By the same token, if I'm voted out and it's revealed the next morning that I'm not a wolf, you and Momoko are again validated. Perhaps she is confused and suspicious and not a wolf.

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buttrflywannabe September 15 2005, 11:50:34 UTC
True... or perhaps, they're hoping to vote you out, then kill either Momoko or me in the second day, reducing the 'safes' to zero as quick as they can...

Hm... why single Yuusuke out?

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