Kim Jong-Il is Dead. How Screwed is the World?
Turns out that freeloaders like me with free accounts can't create polls in LJ. So, if you have an opinion, you'll have to leave it in comments. The way I see it, North Korea can go down several paths at this point, only one or two of them good for both North Korea and the world. It's kind of sad that the best (realistic) outcome is that a horrible man's horrible son manages to consolidate power and keep oppressing his people. But that's better than the whole rickety edifice falling apart into a) a civil war. b) an invasion of the south. c) nuking the south. d) all of the above.
I'm probably being pessimistic, as these things tend to work out. Regimes will usually end with a wimper, not a bang. I just don't like that we know so little about the generals who run the country, and how much Jong-Un has been able to consolidate power over the last year and half. At a time of uncertainty like this, it would only take one wacko to start something the rest of the regime would feel obligated to back up. It also saddens me that I'm banking on China's ability to repress and control its neighbors.
In 1994 I was filled with both amazement and hope when Kim Il Sung died. Now I'm filled with fear and very little hope. I think things will get better for North Korea eventually, but right now I'm mostly hoping things don't get dramatically worse.
I'm probably being pessimistic, as these things tend to work out. Regimes will usually end with a wimper, not a bang. I just don't like that we know so little about the generals who run the country, and how much Jong-Un has been able to consolidate power over the last year and half. At a time of uncertainty like this, it would only take one wacko to start something the rest of the regime would feel obligated to back up. It also saddens me that I'm banking on China's ability to repress and control its neighbors.
In 1994 I was filled with both amazement and hope when Kim Il Sung died. Now I'm filled with fear and very little hope. I think things will get better for North Korea eventually, but right now I'm mostly hoping things don't get dramatically worse.