SA Senate preferences

[bungo]

Australia has a complicated preferential voting system for electing its Senate. later this month, skip here.'>

The ABC's election calculator makes it look like looks like the Australian Democrats are in danger of being wiped out as a party with presence in Parliament. So I looked at SA senate preference distributions.

Interestingly the winners of preferencing deals seem to be:

• Family First receives first preferences from both the National and Liberal parties. (Since they don't give each other first preferences, They also get first preferences from the Fishing and Lifestyle Party, and 2nd preferences from One Nation and Nick Xenophon.
• The Greens, who get Labor 1st preferences as well as those from What Women Want and the Climate Change Coalition.
• Climate Change Coalition, with 1st preferences from the Australian Democrats, Greens, and Senator On-Line.

Losers seem to be:

• The Australian Democrats, who get only second preferences from several groups (Labor, What Women Want, Climate Change), after Greens but these are unlikely to have any effect on the outcome (to the extend I understand the nuances of the Senate preferencing system.
• The Nationals. Since Liberal preferences go to Family First first, I think this means an FF senator is more likely than a National party or 3rd Liberal senator. They do get 1st preferences from FF and the Fred Nile Group.

I assume the first four Senate seats will be two Labor, two Liberal, and that the remainder will be decided on preferences. I guess one of the last two could go to Family First or Greens, and the 6th is a toss-up.

(Why is AD Senator Stott Despoja not on the SA ballot paper?)