Iran, why the attack is going to happen.
And it will happen, dear reader. Because of the very same reason why everything (using this word in its most ample and universal) happens in politics: because it interests. To someone. Usually, a very small and selected group of someones.
For the USA, the invasion of Iraq is a catastrophe in more than one sense. Besides locking eight of the ten operational divisions of the US army, burning the credibility of a country with the search of non-existent weapons e placing photos of naked prisoners being torture in the hands of all anti-american militant on the face of the planet, the invasion dropped the first domino in the strategic sense. Backwards. With the political power in Iraq changing to the Shiite majority, Iranian interests are two steps away in the direction of the oil fields of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. There's even no need to annex then, just need to start bonding with the nearest Shiite cities, what is already happening silently in the oil fields in the southern Iraq. Washington is the hammer that's forging a Shiite crescent from Iran to the Mediterranean. Scored a goal against itself.
But what about Ahmedinejad? this is the most complex enigma in the theme, a hard to solve Rubik's cube. Let's say, theoretically, that Iran is really building the bomb (every inspection, document and data until now points exactly the opposite). That being the case, there are two possibilities: one, there's a second nuclear program, secret one, running alongside to complete the research made by the legal nuclear program. Second, that they are using the official program to legally develop as much as they can, gaining the capacity and quality needed to then go in a surprise-breakthrough with the TNP (Treaty of Non-Nuclear Proliferation) and assemble the warhead.
In both alternatives, patience and moderation are the best path to follow. If there is a secret plan, why not just shut down the legal operation (just a face operation, after all) to calm down the occident? And if the peaceful program is the one that will give birth atomic weapons in the future, its quite worth to suspend then for a while. But the foaming Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, is gearing 4th and flying like a bat out of hell on the wrong way, chanting praises to the annihilation of Israel, calling for a fight in every language that the ONU can translate on the fly. How to explain this?
When I think of Ahmedinejad, the figure that comes to my mind is Anthony Garotinho... squared. (Note of the translator: Garotinho is a minor Brazilian politician that managed to become Governor of the Rio de Janeiro state) A grade 3 politician with a discourse in volume 11, using basic populism to try maneuvers of a level, around, 6. His mediocrity in stereo is exactly the kind of danger that makes an unstable situation in a permanent crisis. The Iranian president has much, much less power than the occident fears (or pretends to fear). As explained before, Iran is governed by a conjunct of Islamic councils, that spread itself in all economic and other powers with its intermediaries. The president figure itself is just an extension, an adornment that even if not completely decorative, can be changed without too much trouble.
Ahmedinejad is trying to expand his influence, and to accomplish this nothing better than do what every good poker player does: bluff with all his weapons. If he manages to reach the vast mass of unemployed youth, reminiscent of the high birth rates of the 80's, the president can forge a block of popular power that even the Ayatollahs wouldn't dare to oppose. And for this, nothing better than using the rhetoric of being the protector of a threatened country. Look how this have helped one particular American president in the last five years, plus some extra time.
Equally, the White House has few to lose. Bush's popularity is around thirty percent, and his attempt to semi-privatize the welfare system deflated. Big shots like Tom Delay, Bill Frist and Scooter Libby are up to their necks with charges of corruption and even treason. The only success of the actual government were the installation of ultra-conservative judges in all courts, including the supreme, and cutting taxes in a time of explosive deficit. With the legislative elections in November Bush needs a banner, any banner, to wave.
In the 80's, astronomer Carl Sagan classified the Cold War as a 'deadly embrace': radicals from both sides needed each other to justify their abuses. The difference, now, is that we can't trust in the natural fear of complete annihilation caused by a big fat crisis. Iran trusts that the Iraq war pressure, and the low popularity of Bush, will keep Washington buffing but passive. In the case that the USA attack, Tehran regimen will manage a symbol in the magnitude of 9/11 to mobilize its bases. While the USA are addicted to the philosophy or siege; they can't work without an omnipresent enemy to be fought in every aspect: press, finance, government, army...
Invest your money in gold and oil, dear reader. This year is one to be remembered.
************************
Original report, in Portuguese, available at the URL:
http://www.mundori.com/home/view.asp?paNumero=560&paCategoria=25
For the USA, the invasion of Iraq is a catastrophe in more than one sense. Besides locking eight of the ten operational divisions of the US army, burning the credibility of a country with the search of non-existent weapons e placing photos of naked prisoners being torture in the hands of all anti-american militant on the face of the planet, the invasion dropped the first domino in the strategic sense. Backwards. With the political power in Iraq changing to the Shiite majority, Iranian interests are two steps away in the direction of the oil fields of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. There's even no need to annex then, just need to start bonding with the nearest Shiite cities, what is already happening silently in the oil fields in the southern Iraq. Washington is the hammer that's forging a Shiite crescent from Iran to the Mediterranean. Scored a goal against itself.
But what about Ahmedinejad? this is the most complex enigma in the theme, a hard to solve Rubik's cube. Let's say, theoretically, that Iran is really building the bomb (every inspection, document and data until now points exactly the opposite). That being the case, there are two possibilities: one, there's a second nuclear program, secret one, running alongside to complete the research made by the legal nuclear program. Second, that they are using the official program to legally develop as much as they can, gaining the capacity and quality needed to then go in a surprise-breakthrough with the TNP (Treaty of Non-Nuclear Proliferation) and assemble the warhead.
In both alternatives, patience and moderation are the best path to follow. If there is a secret plan, why not just shut down the legal operation (just a face operation, after all) to calm down the occident? And if the peaceful program is the one that will give birth atomic weapons in the future, its quite worth to suspend then for a while. But the foaming Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, is gearing 4th and flying like a bat out of hell on the wrong way, chanting praises to the annihilation of Israel, calling for a fight in every language that the ONU can translate on the fly. How to explain this?
When I think of Ahmedinejad, the figure that comes to my mind is Anthony Garotinho... squared. (Note of the translator: Garotinho is a minor Brazilian politician that managed to become Governor of the Rio de Janeiro state) A grade 3 politician with a discourse in volume 11, using basic populism to try maneuvers of a level, around, 6. His mediocrity in stereo is exactly the kind of danger that makes an unstable situation in a permanent crisis. The Iranian president has much, much less power than the occident fears (or pretends to fear). As explained before, Iran is governed by a conjunct of Islamic councils, that spread itself in all economic and other powers with its intermediaries. The president figure itself is just an extension, an adornment that even if not completely decorative, can be changed without too much trouble.
Ahmedinejad is trying to expand his influence, and to accomplish this nothing better than do what every good poker player does: bluff with all his weapons. If he manages to reach the vast mass of unemployed youth, reminiscent of the high birth rates of the 80's, the president can forge a block of popular power that even the Ayatollahs wouldn't dare to oppose. And for this, nothing better than using the rhetoric of being the protector of a threatened country. Look how this have helped one particular American president in the last five years, plus some extra time.
Equally, the White House has few to lose. Bush's popularity is around thirty percent, and his attempt to semi-privatize the welfare system deflated. Big shots like Tom Delay, Bill Frist and Scooter Libby are up to their necks with charges of corruption and even treason. The only success of the actual government were the installation of ultra-conservative judges in all courts, including the supreme, and cutting taxes in a time of explosive deficit. With the legislative elections in November Bush needs a banner, any banner, to wave.
In the 80's, astronomer Carl Sagan classified the Cold War as a 'deadly embrace': radicals from both sides needed each other to justify their abuses. The difference, now, is that we can't trust in the natural fear of complete annihilation caused by a big fat crisis. Iran trusts that the Iraq war pressure, and the low popularity of Bush, will keep Washington buffing but passive. In the case that the USA attack, Tehran regimen will manage a symbol in the magnitude of 9/11 to mobilize its bases. While the USA are addicted to the philosophy or siege; they can't work without an omnipresent enemy to be fought in every aspect: press, finance, government, army...
Invest your money in gold and oil, dear reader. This year is one to be remembered.
************************
Original report, in Portuguese, available at the URL:
http://www.mundori.com/home/view.asp?paNumero=560&paCategoria=25