2009 NASCAR Predictions
A bit late to the party here, but who's counting?
#1) HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
They're debatably the best team in NASCAR right now. Johnson is still on a hot streak, and is going to contend for the title this year. I actually think he has the best shot at it. He's got the best equipment and one of the best crew chiefs in the garage. Johnson and Knaus are the best combination since Gordon & Evernham. Jeff Gordon isn't done yet, either, but I doubt he'll win the Chase unless he has an incredible hot streak at the end. He'll win races and make the Chase for sure, though. Junior will make the Chase, but if he has any chance of winning a championship, it needs to happen soon. He'll need more than one win to do it, too. And the old man? Mark Martin will make the Chase. He'll probably have more top 10s than anyone else at Hendrick, but I don't think he'll win a race. He's a very consistent driver, but he's also fourth in the pecking order at Hendrick, and we know how well that's worked out in the past. (And I really really hope I'm wrong.)
#2) ROUSH-FENWAY RACING
This is other candidate for best team in NASCAR. Carl Edwards will win a number of races, probably five or six, and will make the Chase, but I don't think he'll win it so long as he runs full-time in the Nationwide series. If he's not running in the latter, he could easily win ten races and the Chase. Greg Biffle is running out of time to win a championship. This may be his year, but he'll have to start strong and stay strong. Matt Kenseth will return to his winning ways this year and make the Chase yet again. David Ragan continues to improve, and if his season is more like the second half of 2008, he'll make the Chase and get at least one win this year. Jamie McMurray is much more of a question mark. He'll continue to be wildly inconsistent, even with Wingo as his crew chief, and won't make the Chase. He could still win a race or two.
#3) RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
RCR was in an enviable position last year - they were practically beating off sponsors with a stick. Bowyer and Burton will both win and make the Chase. Of the two, Burton has a great chance to win the championship this year. Harvick may win, but will probably just barely miss the Chase. Mears, on the other hand, needs to show some major improvement to keep his job in the long run, and won't come close to making it in.
#4) JOE GIBBS RACING
JGR lands behind RCR mainly because RCR has three drivers in position to make the Chase, while JGR only has two. Kyle Busch will dominate in the first half of the season, but will peter out towards the end and he might not even get into the Chase. Denny Hamlin will probably make the Chase again, but he needs to get some wins under his belt, and soon, if he wants to win the championship. Logano is not ready. He should have spent a couple seasons in the Nationwide series, and will struggle greatly in the first half of the season. Like David Ragan, he'll get better with experience, and might post some top tens in the second half.
#5) STEWART-HAAS RACING
Despite what people may be saying about this team, Tony Stewart will A) find a way to win and B) get into the Chase. He won't win it all, but he's not missing it just because he's started a new team. Ryan Newman, on the other hand, won't make the Chase. He might win a race, but even that's debatable.
#6) RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS
Kasey Kahne will win races, but will be too inconsistent to make the Chase. Elliott Sadler will continue to drive like a moron and wreck everyone at least once by the end of the year. The question mark here is the 43 and 44. Sorenson is a good driver, but not a great one. I don't see the 43 making the Chase, but I do see it doing better than it has in years past. Allmendinger, on the other hand, might be a better driver than Sorenson. Unfortunately, without sponsorship, the 44 may disappear before he has a chance to prove it.
#7-9 are more unclear. They could be good or bad, but they're all at about the same level.
#7) RED BULL RACING
This team is one big question mark. Vickers has shown flashes of great driving, but couldn't close the deal last year. Scott Speed is a phenom, but he may have moved up too quickly. These two drivers could both win multiple races and make the Chase, or they could wreck every other week. There's just no way to know right now.
#8) YATES RACING
Bobby Labonte is the best thing this team has right now, and he won't win or make the Chase. At least they have two full-time teams, and will probably be able to get about a half-season sponsorship for Kvapil if he starts strong.
#9) EARNHARDT-GANASSI RACING
What a mess. I can't even figure who's actually going to be racing, and with which sponsors aside from Montoya. Truex and BPS will both be gone after this year, and I wouldn't bet on Montoya staying, either. They'll be lucky to get one win between them. Almirola won't be in more than 10 races.
#10) MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING
In a word? Done. Reutimann wasn't even a great driver in the Nationwide series, and Ambrose should have run another season there. And why the hell is Waltrip still racing? Please retire and go commentate. You're better than both DW and Rusty.
#11) EVERYONE ELSE
No single car team is going to win this year. Robby Gordon and Max Papis will come close at the road courses, but they won't be able to pull it off. We'll probably also see fields averaging about 40 drivers, with less in the West and more in the South. I'd say Daytona, Charlotte, Darlington, and Talladega are the only tracks which will attract full fields. Possibly Atlanta as well.
THE CHASE:
1) Johnson
2) Burton
3) Edwards
4) Bowyer
5) Ragan
6) Stewart
7) Gordon
8) Junior
9) Kenseth
10) Martin
11) Biffle
12) Hamlin
Johnson, Burton, and Edwards will be the three really competing for the Championship. Denny Hamlin will barely make it in; Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick will be barely left out.
#1) HENDRICK MOTORSPORTS
They're debatably the best team in NASCAR right now. Johnson is still on a hot streak, and is going to contend for the title this year. I actually think he has the best shot at it. He's got the best equipment and one of the best crew chiefs in the garage. Johnson and Knaus are the best combination since Gordon & Evernham. Jeff Gordon isn't done yet, either, but I doubt he'll win the Chase unless he has an incredible hot streak at the end. He'll win races and make the Chase for sure, though. Junior will make the Chase, but if he has any chance of winning a championship, it needs to happen soon. He'll need more than one win to do it, too. And the old man? Mark Martin will make the Chase. He'll probably have more top 10s than anyone else at Hendrick, but I don't think he'll win a race. He's a very consistent driver, but he's also fourth in the pecking order at Hendrick, and we know how well that's worked out in the past. (And I really really hope I'm wrong.)
#2) ROUSH-FENWAY RACING
This is other candidate for best team in NASCAR. Carl Edwards will win a number of races, probably five or six, and will make the Chase, but I don't think he'll win it so long as he runs full-time in the Nationwide series. If he's not running in the latter, he could easily win ten races and the Chase. Greg Biffle is running out of time to win a championship. This may be his year, but he'll have to start strong and stay strong. Matt Kenseth will return to his winning ways this year and make the Chase yet again. David Ragan continues to improve, and if his season is more like the second half of 2008, he'll make the Chase and get at least one win this year. Jamie McMurray is much more of a question mark. He'll continue to be wildly inconsistent, even with Wingo as his crew chief, and won't make the Chase. He could still win a race or two.
#3) RICHARD CHILDRESS RACING
RCR was in an enviable position last year - they were practically beating off sponsors with a stick. Bowyer and Burton will both win and make the Chase. Of the two, Burton has a great chance to win the championship this year. Harvick may win, but will probably just barely miss the Chase. Mears, on the other hand, needs to show some major improvement to keep his job in the long run, and won't come close to making it in.
#4) JOE GIBBS RACING
JGR lands behind RCR mainly because RCR has three drivers in position to make the Chase, while JGR only has two. Kyle Busch will dominate in the first half of the season, but will peter out towards the end and he might not even get into the Chase. Denny Hamlin will probably make the Chase again, but he needs to get some wins under his belt, and soon, if he wants to win the championship. Logano is not ready. He should have spent a couple seasons in the Nationwide series, and will struggle greatly in the first half of the season. Like David Ragan, he'll get better with experience, and might post some top tens in the second half.
#5) STEWART-HAAS RACING
Despite what people may be saying about this team, Tony Stewart will A) find a way to win and B) get into the Chase. He won't win it all, but he's not missing it just because he's started a new team. Ryan Newman, on the other hand, won't make the Chase. He might win a race, but even that's debatable.
#6) RICHARD PETTY MOTORSPORTS
Kasey Kahne will win races, but will be too inconsistent to make the Chase. Elliott Sadler will continue to drive like a moron and wreck everyone at least once by the end of the year. The question mark here is the 43 and 44. Sorenson is a good driver, but not a great one. I don't see the 43 making the Chase, but I do see it doing better than it has in years past. Allmendinger, on the other hand, might be a better driver than Sorenson. Unfortunately, without sponsorship, the 44 may disappear before he has a chance to prove it.
#7-9 are more unclear. They could be good or bad, but they're all at about the same level.
#7) RED BULL RACING
This team is one big question mark. Vickers has shown flashes of great driving, but couldn't close the deal last year. Scott Speed is a phenom, but he may have moved up too quickly. These two drivers could both win multiple races and make the Chase, or they could wreck every other week. There's just no way to know right now.
#8) YATES RACING
Bobby Labonte is the best thing this team has right now, and he won't win or make the Chase. At least they have two full-time teams, and will probably be able to get about a half-season sponsorship for Kvapil if he starts strong.
#9) EARNHARDT-GANASSI RACING
What a mess. I can't even figure who's actually going to be racing, and with which sponsors aside from Montoya. Truex and BPS will both be gone after this year, and I wouldn't bet on Montoya staying, either. They'll be lucky to get one win between them. Almirola won't be in more than 10 races.
#10) MICHAEL WALTRIP RACING
In a word? Done. Reutimann wasn't even a great driver in the Nationwide series, and Ambrose should have run another season there. And why the hell is Waltrip still racing? Please retire and go commentate. You're better than both DW and Rusty.
#11) EVERYONE ELSE
No single car team is going to win this year. Robby Gordon and Max Papis will come close at the road courses, but they won't be able to pull it off. We'll probably also see fields averaging about 40 drivers, with less in the West and more in the South. I'd say Daytona, Charlotte, Darlington, and Talladega are the only tracks which will attract full fields. Possibly Atlanta as well.
THE CHASE:
1) Johnson
2) Burton
3) Edwards
4) Bowyer
5) Ragan
6) Stewart
7) Gordon
8) Junior
9) Kenseth
10) Martin
11) Biffle
12) Hamlin
Johnson, Burton, and Edwards will be the three really competing for the Championship. Denny Hamlin will barely make it in; Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick will be barely left out.