essay: so about those northern invasions...
This is as much an attempt to make sure I have my own thoughts sorted out straight as it is to explain them to anyone else, really, because a lot of my opinions on canon are kind of pulling in tidbits from a lot of other places and throwing it all at the wall and seeing what sticks.
The entire issue of the northern campaigns is slightly problematic in characterizing Jiang Wei. It's the main reason he's a controversial figure in actual history, and it's...a little weird to reconcile with his portrayal in Shu mode in some ways, even if it lines up okay in others. Historically, there has been an assload of debate about whether Jiang Wei was a good general or not, and the bottom line in a lot of it seems to come down to that one big question:
What the hell was he thinking?
(You know, aside from "BENEVOLENCE!!!")
I keep a very loose eye on some of the debates that continue on kongming.net, which can be a pretty amazing place if you like watching knowledgeable amateurs argue about dead Chinese men. Some of the theories I've seen thrown around are pretty interesting, and have wormed their way into my headcanon. They may or may not be accurate, but hell, guys, I'm playing from Dynasty Warriors. Accuracy is only for when it works with the story, and when it stops working with the story, it gets thrown out the window, which is how Jiang Wei's most amazingly badass moment got left on the cutting room floor. Yes, I mad.1
For starters, I do think that Jiang Wei's actions are probably a little less stupid than Jin story mode makes them look. The story modes all have some definite viewpoint bias -- look at how Cao Cao is treated between Shu and Wei modes, for example. Being that Jiang Wei's the endboss of Jin mode, of course he's not going to be very sympathetic there. This isn't to say that he didn't make some very bad decisions in how to handle the north, but I'm actually not so sure if there were really good decisions to make, at that point. (Aside from "surrender and spare everyone the trouble," which really isn't an option in his eyes. Despite being a latecomer to the kingdom, his mindset is very old-school Shu, and playing DW7 really made me think that he had the misfortune of coming along a generation too late.)
Jin story mode does get the basic idea spot on -- that Jiang Wei is too stubbornly attached to Shu's ideals to surrender, and that the northern campaigns were tactically not a good move. But since we only see Shu on the battlefield, we don't see what considerations were made in making their plans, and even given the degree of stubborn obsessiveness Boyue's showing by this era, I have difficulty believing that a guy who's introduced as nearly getting the best of Zhuge Liang isn't going to be putting more thought into this than "INVADE. NORTH. SMASH. ENEMY."
So there are a couple of things that I think were probably big factors in his decision to put Shu on an offensive strategy.
First: to my understanding, Shu had a pretty shitty infrastructure. This much is even alluded to in the game at points; there's an NPC who mentions that Shu is suffering from food shortages, because their mountainous terrain makes it difficult to produce enough to feed the population. Transporting goods and food between areas would presumably also be difficult, with the mountains.
What complicates this a little more is something that I have seen discussed but have not checked the sources on, so I don't know the viability of this argument in a pure historical debate, but I think it works well enough for fictional purposes anyway, so -- Shu's leadership did a poor job of promoting development of the infrastructure, or so it has been argued. In Jiang Wei's case, this is perfectly excusable; his authority only extends over the military, and he doesn't have the power to set domestic policy. (Nor the interest, probably; unlike his mentor, he does seem to have been a military man through and through.) But Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang don't have that excuse, and we already know that Zhuge Liang was very capable in domestic affairs, so if Shu has a bad infrastructure, it's either so bad even he has a hard time improving it, or it's not a priority.
If the first is true, then...that's that, and Shu would have serious problems standing as an independent kingdom in the long term. If the second is true, and it simply wasn't a priority, then Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang presumably never intended for Shu to have to stand as an independent kingdom in the long term -- just for it to function independently long enough to act as their base from which to fight the war and defeat Wei, and then they could sort things out when the empire was properly united.
Either way: Shu's prospects for supporting both its population and its military don't look too good the longer it lasts. And getting rid of the military would be an invitation to be conquered.
We already know that Zhuge Liang, towards the end of his lifespan, got really gung-ho about conquering the north himself, and launched a number of campaigns (although not as many as Jiang Wei). A good stretch of his time before he dies in the novel is spent desperately trying to lure Sima Yi into a confrontation, because he's worried that if the Wei army keeps turtling up and waiting him out, he'll die before they're able to engage them. Desperation at his own ticking clock, certainly -- but it could just as easily be desperation for Shu's ticking clock, as well. The longer the war drags on, the weaker Shu's position may become, and it's in their best interest to try and finish things quickly.
Jiang Wei would be in a position to know this, and would be in a position to have been warned by Zhuge Liang that they can't sit back and wait too long while still maintaining their military, especially given that the Shu military was a pretty high percentage of the population (I usually see it estimated at 10%). And even with that high soldier-to-civvie ratio, they're still woefully outnumbered, so while they need that population's working power out in the fields, they also need it right where it is, lest they shoot their defensive strategy in the foot.
So we have a ridiculously outnumbered army; most figures I've seen place Shu's military strength at around 100,000 men, and I believe that figure was used somewhere in the novel, although my memory eludes me as to where. Wei, according to the novel, was able to field a million men at Chibi. I'm sure that's literary hyperbole, but my canon is nothing if not literary hyperbole, so I don't mind rolling with that over real history, and either way, the basic point is the same -- although Wei doesn't continue fielding the sheer numbers they brought to Chibi, they're still going to be far ahead of Shu's numbers. Wei's advantages as a kingdom were always superior population and a much stronger infrastructure, so they don't have as many supply issues to overcome.
Shu sounds pretty fucked.
Given the disparity of...well, just about everything, I tend to read Jiang Wei's persistent offensive strategy as an attempt to set the pace of engagement before Wei could set it for him. He can't do anything to change the disadvantages he's already got, so what can he do? He can strike first to try and maintain control of where and when his forces are fighting, rather than risk letting Wei choose the battlefields.
Sure, he could sit back and take a defensive strategy, but every season he has to prepare and stockpile, Wei also has to do the same, and given their better infrastructure I think they'd be able to increase their resources at a better rate. His constant campaigning doesn't leave him much time to recover from each battle, but if he takes the time, they'll get as much if not more out of it than he does, so he opts to keep pushing and not give them the chance.
In short: since he doesn't trust that Wei isn't going to come knocking on Shu's door sooner or later, he keeps pushing in hopes of preventing them from doing so -- if he strikes first, then even if (when) they repel him, they'll hold back and lick their wounds instead of storming Shu and steamrollering over his army. That's what he's counting on, and to be fair, it did keep them out for almost fifteen years (if I'm remembering my dates right). Unfortunately, when they decide to say "fuck you" and keep pushing back instead of just repelling him and waiting...well, that's a problem.
And he did at least try to go for what openings he could find. He timed invasions to coincide with attacks from Wu, or he struck when Wei was distracted by internal disputes. He tried to bring the Qiang in as allies, even if that didn't work out so well in the end.
That stubborn obsession with taking down Wei? Well, definitely a problem. But ultimately, I think there were other factors in Shu's offensive strategy than "Jiang Wei really wants to kick Cao Somebody in the teeth FUCK YOU ALL
". The offensive strategy wasn't a good idea -- it was a drain of resources that Shu couldn't easily replace. But on the other hand, a defensive strategy could've easily left him fighting an even bigger Wei force on their terms, not his, so in light of that, I think it's a little more understandable. Bad decision, yes -- I'm just not so sure if there was actually a good decision in there that he could've made.
(Aside from "surrender." To which there's not much to say but...it's Shu.)
I've compared Jiang Wei before to that adorable puppy that loves his master and wags his tail and just wants to make master happy!!!1 and keeps pissing on Wei's carpet and trying to bite Deng Ai the mailman. To keep following that analogy, I see Shu's final days as something like...when the master fakes throwing the stick but is actually still holding it, so it's not out there to be found, but the dog is just searching the yard frantically and trying so hard because he has to find the stick or master will be so disappointed in him!
Or, tl;dr, man does it suck to be Boyue.
1In chapter 109 of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Guo Huai is pursuing Jiang Wei. Both are on horseback, and while Jiang Wei still has his bow, he lost his quiver in the rush. So he just keeps turning back and plucking the bowstring like he's shooting. Guo Huai figures out that he's bluffing and takes a shot of his own -- and Jiang Wei dodges, catches the arrow in midair, and then shoots it right back, hitting Guo Huai in the head. Honestly, I'd rather have this than the Moment of Drama for Xiahou Ba that replaced it, but I'm obviously a little biased here. Incidentally, I do still hold in my headcanon that Jiang Wei did this to some general...just not Guo Huai, apparently. Pick an NPC officer from Jin story mode, I guess.
The entire issue of the northern campaigns is slightly problematic in characterizing Jiang Wei. It's the main reason he's a controversial figure in actual history, and it's...a little weird to reconcile with his portrayal in Shu mode in some ways, even if it lines up okay in others. Historically, there has been an assload of debate about whether Jiang Wei was a good general or not, and the bottom line in a lot of it seems to come down to that one big question:
What the hell was he thinking?
(You know, aside from "BENEVOLENCE!!!")
I keep a very loose eye on some of the debates that continue on kongming.net, which can be a pretty amazing place if you like watching knowledgeable amateurs argue about dead Chinese men. Some of the theories I've seen thrown around are pretty interesting, and have wormed their way into my headcanon. They may or may not be accurate, but hell, guys, I'm playing from Dynasty Warriors. Accuracy is only for when it works with the story, and when it stops working with the story, it gets thrown out the window, which is how Jiang Wei's most amazingly badass moment got left on the cutting room floor. Yes, I mad.1
For starters, I do think that Jiang Wei's actions are probably a little less stupid than Jin story mode makes them look. The story modes all have some definite viewpoint bias -- look at how Cao Cao is treated between Shu and Wei modes, for example. Being that Jiang Wei's the endboss of Jin mode, of course he's not going to be very sympathetic there. This isn't to say that he didn't make some very bad decisions in how to handle the north, but I'm actually not so sure if there were really good decisions to make, at that point. (Aside from "surrender and spare everyone the trouble," which really isn't an option in his eyes. Despite being a latecomer to the kingdom, his mindset is very old-school Shu, and playing DW7 really made me think that he had the misfortune of coming along a generation too late.)
Jin story mode does get the basic idea spot on -- that Jiang Wei is too stubbornly attached to Shu's ideals to surrender, and that the northern campaigns were tactically not a good move. But since we only see Shu on the battlefield, we don't see what considerations were made in making their plans, and even given the degree of stubborn obsessiveness Boyue's showing by this era, I have difficulty believing that a guy who's introduced as nearly getting the best of Zhuge Liang isn't going to be putting more thought into this than "INVADE. NORTH. SMASH. ENEMY."
So there are a couple of things that I think were probably big factors in his decision to put Shu on an offensive strategy.
First: to my understanding, Shu had a pretty shitty infrastructure. This much is even alluded to in the game at points; there's an NPC who mentions that Shu is suffering from food shortages, because their mountainous terrain makes it difficult to produce enough to feed the population. Transporting goods and food between areas would presumably also be difficult, with the mountains.
What complicates this a little more is something that I have seen discussed but have not checked the sources on, so I don't know the viability of this argument in a pure historical debate, but I think it works well enough for fictional purposes anyway, so -- Shu's leadership did a poor job of promoting development of the infrastructure, or so it has been argued. In Jiang Wei's case, this is perfectly excusable; his authority only extends over the military, and he doesn't have the power to set domestic policy. (Nor the interest, probably; unlike his mentor, he does seem to have been a military man through and through.) But Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang don't have that excuse, and we already know that Zhuge Liang was very capable in domestic affairs, so if Shu has a bad infrastructure, it's either so bad even he has a hard time improving it, or it's not a priority.
If the first is true, then...that's that, and Shu would have serious problems standing as an independent kingdom in the long term. If the second is true, and it simply wasn't a priority, then Liu Bei and Zhuge Liang presumably never intended for Shu to have to stand as an independent kingdom in the long term -- just for it to function independently long enough to act as their base from which to fight the war and defeat Wei, and then they could sort things out when the empire was properly united.
Either way: Shu's prospects for supporting both its population and its military don't look too good the longer it lasts. And getting rid of the military would be an invitation to be conquered.
We already know that Zhuge Liang, towards the end of his lifespan, got really gung-ho about conquering the north himself, and launched a number of campaigns (although not as many as Jiang Wei). A good stretch of his time before he dies in the novel is spent desperately trying to lure Sima Yi into a confrontation, because he's worried that if the Wei army keeps turtling up and waiting him out, he'll die before they're able to engage them. Desperation at his own ticking clock, certainly -- but it could just as easily be desperation for Shu's ticking clock, as well. The longer the war drags on, the weaker Shu's position may become, and it's in their best interest to try and finish things quickly.
Jiang Wei would be in a position to know this, and would be in a position to have been warned by Zhuge Liang that they can't sit back and wait too long while still maintaining their military, especially given that the Shu military was a pretty high percentage of the population (I usually see it estimated at 10%). And even with that high soldier-to-civvie ratio, they're still woefully outnumbered, so while they need that population's working power out in the fields, they also need it right where it is, lest they shoot their defensive strategy in the foot.
So we have a ridiculously outnumbered army; most figures I've seen place Shu's military strength at around 100,000 men, and I believe that figure was used somewhere in the novel, although my memory eludes me as to where. Wei, according to the novel, was able to field a million men at Chibi. I'm sure that's literary hyperbole, but my canon is nothing if not literary hyperbole, so I don't mind rolling with that over real history, and either way, the basic point is the same -- although Wei doesn't continue fielding the sheer numbers they brought to Chibi, they're still going to be far ahead of Shu's numbers. Wei's advantages as a kingdom were always superior population and a much stronger infrastructure, so they don't have as many supply issues to overcome.
Shu sounds pretty fucked.
Given the disparity of...well, just about everything, I tend to read Jiang Wei's persistent offensive strategy as an attempt to set the pace of engagement before Wei could set it for him. He can't do anything to change the disadvantages he's already got, so what can he do? He can strike first to try and maintain control of where and when his forces are fighting, rather than risk letting Wei choose the battlefields.
Sure, he could sit back and take a defensive strategy, but every season he has to prepare and stockpile, Wei also has to do the same, and given their better infrastructure I think they'd be able to increase their resources at a better rate. His constant campaigning doesn't leave him much time to recover from each battle, but if he takes the time, they'll get as much if not more out of it than he does, so he opts to keep pushing and not give them the chance.
In short: since he doesn't trust that Wei isn't going to come knocking on Shu's door sooner or later, he keeps pushing in hopes of preventing them from doing so -- if he strikes first, then even if (when) they repel him, they'll hold back and lick their wounds instead of storming Shu and steamrollering over his army. That's what he's counting on, and to be fair, it did keep them out for almost fifteen years (if I'm remembering my dates right). Unfortunately, when they decide to say "fuck you" and keep pushing back instead of just repelling him and waiting...well, that's a problem.
And he did at least try to go for what openings he could find. He timed invasions to coincide with attacks from Wu, or he struck when Wei was distracted by internal disputes. He tried to bring the Qiang in as allies, even if that didn't work out so well in the end.
That stubborn obsession with taking down Wei? Well, definitely a problem. But ultimately, I think there were other factors in Shu's offensive strategy than "Jiang Wei really wants to kick Cao Somebody in the teeth FUCK YOU ALL
". The offensive strategy wasn't a good idea -- it was a drain of resources that Shu couldn't easily replace. But on the other hand, a defensive strategy could've easily left him fighting an even bigger Wei force on their terms, not his, so in light of that, I think it's a little more understandable. Bad decision, yes -- I'm just not so sure if there was actually a good decision in there that he could've made.
(Aside from "surrender." To which there's not much to say but...it's Shu.)
I've compared Jiang Wei before to that adorable puppy that loves his master and wags his tail and just wants to make master happy!!!1 and keeps pissing on Wei's carpet and trying to bite Deng Ai the mailman. To keep following that analogy, I see Shu's final days as something like...when the master fakes throwing the stick but is actually still holding it, so it's not out there to be found, but the dog is just searching the yard frantically and trying so hard because he has to find the stick or master will be so disappointed in him!
Or, tl;dr, man does it suck to be Boyue.
1In chapter 109 of Romance of the Three Kingdoms, Guo Huai is pursuing Jiang Wei. Both are on horseback, and while Jiang Wei still has his bow, he lost his quiver in the rush. So he just keeps turning back and plucking the bowstring like he's shooting. Guo Huai figures out that he's bluffing and takes a shot of his own -- and Jiang Wei dodges, catches the arrow in midair, and then shoots it right back, hitting Guo Huai in the head. Honestly, I'd rather have this than the Moment of Drama for Xiahou Ba that replaced it, but I'm obviously a little biased here. Incidentally, I do still hold in my headcanon that Jiang Wei did this to some general...just not Guo Huai, apparently. Pick an NPC officer from Jin story mode, I guess.