Presidential Politics

[broceliand]

Those of you who have known me a while know that I was seriously pissed at the Democratic Party for nominating John Kerry in 2004. It wasn't personal - but anyone who'd heard the man over the previous 20 years in the Senate knew he was a policy wonk. While that might be welcome in Massachusetts, it certainly was not going to play well outside the

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[broceliand]

Christian Science Monitor just reported a poll that said 80% of likely Democratic voters would like to vote for a female candidate, but only 60% of them thought other Democrats would vote for a female

Which goes to my point. The Democratic party could *easily* nominate her (hell, they've practically anointed her already). In a general election, I do not remotely believe she could win.

And in addition to her problems on the right, she has alienated most of the real liberals I know.

Mitt Romney will stumble coming out of the starting gate, BTW. He's flipped and flopped so many times in Massachusetts it's ridiculous. The Democrats could make serious hay with him, and the Republicans know it. I don't think Romney will get the fundamentalist vote - he's changed position too often, and they don't really think Mormons are Christian anyway. He is a very easy target for the Democrats. If they miss on that one, they aren't trying.

Kucinich is not viable. I suspect the hard left *may* have learned a lesson or two in the past and may not support him as much as they did before, in order to get a progressive Dem the nod rather than giving it away to the "moderate" and "right" part of the Democratic party.

Brownback can certainly get the fundy vote if the Republican frontrunner is not an evangelical. I don't believe he can get the nomination because the Republican power brokers are not stupid, and he's not electable. He is much too extreme, even for them.

Guiliani can't get the nomination, I don't think. I think a lot of the right will hold their collective noses and vote for McCain, but he's really hurt himself with independents and right leaning Democrats by...what was Julilla's term? Something about knob polishing? I think he would have a hard time in the general election, harder than people think. I suspect the Republican nominee will be someone we aren't thinking of as a frontrunner at the moment.

[jessebc]

All the candidates are assuming they have to capture the swing voters. So, of course, no Republicans are going to vote for Hillary. But probably most of those who wouldn't vote for a woman on principle aren't going to vote for any Democrat anyway. I think underestimating a Clinton on the campaign trail is a mistake. They really kick ass when they campaign.

The common wisdom was that Romney wouldn't get the Christians, but now both Dobson and Falwell are talking him up and, whoever they choose will take the bulk of the religious right vote. They're leaving themselves an out, but it's Romney they're pointing at, not Brownback, for the time being. Besides, they love Orrin Hatch and you can't much more Mormon than him and "flip-flopping" only seems to bother them when Democrats do it.

Kucinich and Brownback will probably both run independently when they don't get the major party nomination. And they'll probably both take votes.

I just can't see who else the Republicans have to run nor how any of them would beat Hillary. Barring another terrorist attack that might boost Guiliani's chances or a sudden rock star explosion from Obama, I'm guessing it'll be a Hillary vs. McCain contest, with Dobson and Falwell pushing their flock to vote McCain, but with a fair number breaking rank for Brownback.