Amadinejad Promises to "Disappoint" Enemies, Tyrants February 11th
"I am sure the Iranian people will do something on February 11, which will disappoint the enemies and the tyrants completely."
--Mahmoud Amadinejad
These words almost certainly refer to street demonstrations of pro-government factions. However, there are three recent wrinkles to keep in mind before writing such a remark off.
First, while the government is definitely being challenged, it is not unstable-- a revolution is entirely unlikely in the near term. Nevertheless, a successful demonstration of an ability to stand up to the west or Israel might very well help to re-solidify governmental control.
Second, a high-level Hamas official was recently killed abroad. A number of people, purportedly from (or, at least, with passports claiming origins in) various countries have been arrested. There is a widespread assumption, both within and beyond the Arab world, that the Israeli Mossad is responsible for the killing. The belief is so widespread that any alternate actual reality may not matter unless it is extremely convincing. A move against Israel would, so the theory goes, help unify Iran with like-minded neighbors.
Finally, Iran continues to attempt to procure high-grade defense materials from Russia, including the SA-300 (actually, Iran almost certainly wants the state-of-the-art SA-400, but good luck with that). Make no mistake, if there is one thing Russia, like the Soviet Union before it, actually does well in defense, it is missiles. It isn't so much a matter of technological prowess as just extremely well-refined processes. Even the somewhat-dated versions are quite potent, and meaningful modernization and upgrade kits have been sold for years (and, quite possibly, are where the real money is made). Russia has felt a need to reassert its military relevance in recent years, and it may yet be willing to stand up to the west more strongly through a proxy than directly, to test the waters. Iran, meanwhile, still wants to acquire hardware Moscow is still on the fence about selling.
Amadinejad's speech contained the following, as well:
"This year will see the definite failure of capitalism, inhuman liberalism and the start of globalization of the Islamic revolution."
This, of course, fails the "And I want a pony" test.
Nevertheless, as an exercise, it would be a good idea to at least take an exasperated look at the Domestic Threat Checklist for Iran. It's late, and I'm tired, so I'm going to cut to the chase on this one.
The only even marginally credible meaningful strategic threat Iran will have at some point against the domestic United States is the deployment of an EMP-optimized nuclear weapon via their emerging longer-range rockets high above America, probably from a cargo vessel offshore. The reasons this is their most credible strategy go roughly like this:
1. Modern missile guidance can be almost completely ignored; the damn thing just has to go almost straight up and then arc for a bit.
2. Anti-ballistic missile defense (which we do have a very limited, but not negligible, capability for) probably won't help, since the missile would be too high for mid-course interceptors and terminal-phase interceptors will be irrelevant, since the physics package will have activated prior to that point.
3. Various effects will greatly amplify the EMP effect of even a normal nuclear weapon when detonated high above the bulk of the atmosphere. A moderately-sized weapon that could be shrugged off when coupled with a crappy guidance system may nonetheless cause a significant EMP effect.
4. American vulnerability to, and cascade damage from, EMP effects continues, and will continue, to increase. I usually offer the ray of hope here that resupplying these materials from our trading partners abroad would only be a matter of days in many cases-- cargo ships will already be en-route due to their normal operations, after all-- but it would be, nonetheless, extremely disruptive.
So, for what it's worth, the one eye-rolling, devil's advocate domestic U.S. option Iran either has or will develop at some point is a stratosphere-exosphere EMP device.
So-- what do you, Joe Public, do?
Not a hell of a lot, honestly. The things you should do anyway, of course:
Three months of any life-critical medications. Always, always, no exceptions.
A week of water, changed out every three months.
A week of food, changed out as appropriate for the ration type.
If you have somewhere to store it safely-- not in the house-- ten gallons of gas.
However, for EMP, you should consider doing the following:
Spare, high-value electronics (meaning communications gear, really) should have the batteries removed, all antennas and long wires disconnected, and be packed into metal containers. Old metal ammo cans are great for cell phones, radios, and so on. While you're at it, make sure the waterproofing seals are still good. And those lids are supposed to scrape the sides of the can.
If you know what you're doing, you can compress steel wool carefully against the circuit boards, or otherwise ensure a safe shunt to keep long circuit traces from discharging into components.
While disconnected motors and refrigerators which are not plugged in at the time may be reasonably survivable, DO NOT expect to be able to run a refrigerator or motor off a UPS (uninterruptible power supply)! The startup current required for these is very high, and nasty for a UPS.
Outdoor antennas should always have lightning protection. It's unlikely the E1 spike from an EMP event would start a fire in most antenna systems, but it's worth thinking about, and you want the lightning protection anyway, so do it.
Anyway, there you go. EMP defense from a software engineer after three drinks. Sheesh. Whatever happened to Civil Defense?
--Mahmoud Amadinejad
These words almost certainly refer to street demonstrations of pro-government factions. However, there are three recent wrinkles to keep in mind before writing such a remark off.
First, while the government is definitely being challenged, it is not unstable-- a revolution is entirely unlikely in the near term. Nevertheless, a successful demonstration of an ability to stand up to the west or Israel might very well help to re-solidify governmental control.
Second, a high-level Hamas official was recently killed abroad. A number of people, purportedly from (or, at least, with passports claiming origins in) various countries have been arrested. There is a widespread assumption, both within and beyond the Arab world, that the Israeli Mossad is responsible for the killing. The belief is so widespread that any alternate actual reality may not matter unless it is extremely convincing. A move against Israel would, so the theory goes, help unify Iran with like-minded neighbors.
Finally, Iran continues to attempt to procure high-grade defense materials from Russia, including the SA-300 (actually, Iran almost certainly wants the state-of-the-art SA-400, but good luck with that). Make no mistake, if there is one thing Russia, like the Soviet Union before it, actually does well in defense, it is missiles. It isn't so much a matter of technological prowess as just extremely well-refined processes. Even the somewhat-dated versions are quite potent, and meaningful modernization and upgrade kits have been sold for years (and, quite possibly, are where the real money is made). Russia has felt a need to reassert its military relevance in recent years, and it may yet be willing to stand up to the west more strongly through a proxy than directly, to test the waters. Iran, meanwhile, still wants to acquire hardware Moscow is still on the fence about selling.
Amadinejad's speech contained the following, as well:
"This year will see the definite failure of capitalism, inhuman liberalism and the start of globalization of the Islamic revolution."
This, of course, fails the "And I want a pony" test.
Nevertheless, as an exercise, it would be a good idea to at least take an exasperated look at the Domestic Threat Checklist for Iran. It's late, and I'm tired, so I'm going to cut to the chase on this one.
The only even marginally credible meaningful strategic threat Iran will have at some point against the domestic United States is the deployment of an EMP-optimized nuclear weapon via their emerging longer-range rockets high above America, probably from a cargo vessel offshore. The reasons this is their most credible strategy go roughly like this:
1. Modern missile guidance can be almost completely ignored; the damn thing just has to go almost straight up and then arc for a bit.
2. Anti-ballistic missile defense (which we do have a very limited, but not negligible, capability for) probably won't help, since the missile would be too high for mid-course interceptors and terminal-phase interceptors will be irrelevant, since the physics package will have activated prior to that point.
3. Various effects will greatly amplify the EMP effect of even a normal nuclear weapon when detonated high above the bulk of the atmosphere. A moderately-sized weapon that could be shrugged off when coupled with a crappy guidance system may nonetheless cause a significant EMP effect.
4. American vulnerability to, and cascade damage from, EMP effects continues, and will continue, to increase. I usually offer the ray of hope here that resupplying these materials from our trading partners abroad would only be a matter of days in many cases-- cargo ships will already be en-route due to their normal operations, after all-- but it would be, nonetheless, extremely disruptive.
So, for what it's worth, the one eye-rolling, devil's advocate domestic U.S. option Iran either has or will develop at some point is a stratosphere-exosphere EMP device.
So-- what do you, Joe Public, do?
Not a hell of a lot, honestly. The things you should do anyway, of course:
However, for EMP, you should consider doing the following:
Anyway, there you go. EMP defense from a software engineer after three drinks. Sheesh. Whatever happened to Civil Defense?