Borealin's Guide to Election Night
As some of you know, I get addictively drawn in to elections...so in the effort to organize my thoughts, I thought I'd go ahead and blog a roadmap of states to watch on election night.
The list of states to watch are all the states that are currently being actively contested by both parties. Although most of the pundits are reducing the "battleground states" to about a handful, this list is uncommonly long, at least for the last generation's worth of presidential elections.
But first, the states which are "locked in" to each candidate, or at least have been essentially conceded.
In Obama's corner are: HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, NY, DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, and ME. 18 states + DC for a total of 234 Electoral Votes (EV's).
In McCain's bin are: AK, ID, UT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL and SC. 16 states for a total of 127 EV's.
16 states are contested with a remaining total of 177 EV's. 270 EV's wins the White House. Obama only needs to scrounge up 36 EV's whereas McCain needs a full 143. Put another way, Obama needs only a fifth of the remaining EV's. McCain would need 80% of them, a significantly uphill battle.
I've placed these states on a blue-to-red scale and divided them into tiers of descending probability (or ascending if you're a McCainiac). Keep your eyes on these states as they come in Tuesday night. Listed are the states, their EV's, and their current average polling numbers.
Tier 1 (True Blue)
-------------------
NH 4 Obama +11
PA 21 Obama +9
These should be called for Obama right away as soon as their polls close, but NH is Mavericky like McCain, and McCain is contesting PA heavily. If Obama takes these states, he will be at 259 EV's.
Tier 2 (Shades of Blue)
------------------------
NM 5 Obama +10
CO 9 Obama +7
NV 5 Obama +5
These went for Bush in the last elections, but are Obama's best opportunities for pickups. McCain has not led in a poll in these states for over a month. If Obama sweeps this triad, he reaches 278 EV's and wins the presidency.
Tier 3 (Hot Spots)
-------------------
FL 27 Obama +2
OH 20 Obama +5
VA 13 Obama +6
Two of the "Big Three" in this category, along with surprising Virginia. Every President in the last generation has won at least two of the "Big Three", and every Republican en route to the White House has won Ohio. If Obama pulls these off, he'll have 338 EV's, limiting McCain to only 200.
Tier 4 (Shades of Red)
-----------------------
MO 11 Dead Heat
IN 11 Dead Heat
NC 15 Obama +1
The last of the "Big Three" and commonly red Indiana and North Carolina are amazingly in play. Missouri is known as the "Bellweather" of elections; as Missouri goes, so goes the nation. If Obama grabs these states, which are definitely within his reach, he will have gained a whopping 375 EV's. This is the point where pundits will be talking about a landslide, and will be looking at downticket races to see if Obama has any "coattails".
Note: Indiana's polls close really early, at 7 PM Eastern time. If Indiana is "too close to call" when their polls close, that will be the first indication of an electoral shift in the map. The longer it takes to call, the longer the night will be for Republicans. If Indiana is called for Obama, the GOP dam will have effectively burst.
Tier 5 (The Red Zone)
----------------------
WV 5 McCain +8
GA 15 McCain +4
ND 3 Dead Heat
MT 3 McCain +2
Glimmers of blue have recently shown in these states. West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have had recent polls showing either a dead heat or an Obama lead. Georgia has the very real possibility of being tipped by a high African-American turnout along with Bob Barr being a potential spoiler on the Libertarian ticket. Ron Paul has a significant following in Montana and could play the spoiler there, as he happens to be on the ballot. Sweeping these states makes Obama break through the 400 barrier with 401 EV's, and the word of the night will be "mandate".
Tier 6 (The End Zone)
----------------------
AZ 10 McCain +4
Arizona?!? McCain's "home state"?!? You betcha! ;^D The most recent poll, by Mason-Dixon, gives McCain a 4 point lead. Thing is Mason-Dixon reliably leans Republican by a few percentage points. McCain is actually now spending money in his home state in the form of robocalls, which are of dubious efficacy. Rumor has it that Obama himself is considering a swing through Arizona. If Obama manages to win Arizona, his total EV's will be 411, and it will be the equivalent of spiking the ball and doing the Ickey Shuffle in McCain's end zone.
This is the point where I predict Bill O'Reilly will cry on national television.
Must see TV! :^D
Another way of looking at it is by the order the polls close. A list of poll closing times is here. Virginia's polls close at 7 PM ET and New Hampshire's and Pennsylvania's close at 8. If those three get called for Obama, that would effectively give him 272 EV's and the win, and the rest of the night can be spent watching Obama run up the score...or you can simply go to bed early with a great deal of peace of mind.
Happy watching!
The list of states to watch are all the states that are currently being actively contested by both parties. Although most of the pundits are reducing the "battleground states" to about a handful, this list is uncommonly long, at least for the last generation's worth of presidential elections.
But first, the states which are "locked in" to each candidate, or at least have been essentially conceded.
In Obama's corner are: HI, CA, WA, OR, MN, IA, WI, IL, MI, NY, DC, MD, DE, NJ, CT, RI, MA, VT, and ME. 18 states + DC for a total of 234 Electoral Votes (EV's).
In McCain's bin are: AK, ID, UT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, KY, TN, MS, AL and SC. 16 states for a total of 127 EV's.
16 states are contested with a remaining total of 177 EV's. 270 EV's wins the White House. Obama only needs to scrounge up 36 EV's whereas McCain needs a full 143. Put another way, Obama needs only a fifth of the remaining EV's. McCain would need 80% of them, a significantly uphill battle.
I've placed these states on a blue-to-red scale and divided them into tiers of descending probability (or ascending if you're a McCainiac). Keep your eyes on these states as they come in Tuesday night. Listed are the states, their EV's, and their current average polling numbers.
Tier 1 (True Blue)
-------------------
NH 4 Obama +11
PA 21 Obama +9
These should be called for Obama right away as soon as their polls close, but NH is Mavericky like McCain, and McCain is contesting PA heavily. If Obama takes these states, he will be at 259 EV's.
Tier 2 (Shades of Blue)
------------------------
NM 5 Obama +10
CO 9 Obama +7
NV 5 Obama +5
These went for Bush in the last elections, but are Obama's best opportunities for pickups. McCain has not led in a poll in these states for over a month. If Obama sweeps this triad, he reaches 278 EV's and wins the presidency.
Tier 3 (Hot Spots)
-------------------
FL 27 Obama +2
OH 20 Obama +5
VA 13 Obama +6
Two of the "Big Three" in this category, along with surprising Virginia. Every President in the last generation has won at least two of the "Big Three", and every Republican en route to the White House has won Ohio. If Obama pulls these off, he'll have 338 EV's, limiting McCain to only 200.
Tier 4 (Shades of Red)
-----------------------
MO 11 Dead Heat
IN 11 Dead Heat
NC 15 Obama +1
The last of the "Big Three" and commonly red Indiana and North Carolina are amazingly in play. Missouri is known as the "Bellweather" of elections; as Missouri goes, so goes the nation. If Obama grabs these states, which are definitely within his reach, he will have gained a whopping 375 EV's. This is the point where pundits will be talking about a landslide, and will be looking at downticket races to see if Obama has any "coattails".
Note: Indiana's polls close really early, at 7 PM Eastern time. If Indiana is "too close to call" when their polls close, that will be the first indication of an electoral shift in the map. The longer it takes to call, the longer the night will be for Republicans. If Indiana is called for Obama, the GOP dam will have effectively burst.
Tier 5 (The Red Zone)
----------------------
WV 5 McCain +8
GA 15 McCain +4
ND 3 Dead Heat
MT 3 McCain +2
Glimmers of blue have recently shown in these states. West Virginia, North Dakota and Montana have had recent polls showing either a dead heat or an Obama lead. Georgia has the very real possibility of being tipped by a high African-American turnout along with Bob Barr being a potential spoiler on the Libertarian ticket. Ron Paul has a significant following in Montana and could play the spoiler there, as he happens to be on the ballot. Sweeping these states makes Obama break through the 400 barrier with 401 EV's, and the word of the night will be "mandate".
Tier 6 (The End Zone)
----------------------
AZ 10 McCain +4
Arizona?!? McCain's "home state"?!? You betcha! ;^D The most recent poll, by Mason-Dixon, gives McCain a 4 point lead. Thing is Mason-Dixon reliably leans Republican by a few percentage points. McCain is actually now spending money in his home state in the form of robocalls, which are of dubious efficacy. Rumor has it that Obama himself is considering a swing through Arizona. If Obama manages to win Arizona, his total EV's will be 411, and it will be the equivalent of spiking the ball and doing the Ickey Shuffle in McCain's end zone.
This is the point where I predict Bill O'Reilly will cry on national television.
Must see TV! :^D
Another way of looking at it is by the order the polls close. A list of poll closing times is here. Virginia's polls close at 7 PM ET and New Hampshire's and Pennsylvania's close at 8. If those three get called for Obama, that would effectively give him 272 EV's and the win, and the rest of the night can be spent watching Obama run up the score...or you can simply go to bed early with a great deal of peace of mind.
Happy watching!