Politics and Thinking Things Through

[boffo]

I frequently see political wonk types make an argument along the lines of "the political party or faction I dislike will make a strategically stupid move, and it will be disastrous for their side and great for my side

Comments

[boffo]

None of those people had negatives as high as Palin prior to the campaign. Whether or not her reputation is deserved, it exists and Republicans can't wish it away.

If she runs and gains any sort of traction, a majority of Republicans would recognize the problem and rally around an alternative.

Primaries favor extremist candidates only in lower profile races. Not for the Presidency. In every Presidential election since I've been old enough to pay attention, the candidates who presented themselves as the moderates won the nomination for both parties. (They may not have actually been moderate, but they presented themselves that way.)

[boffo]

Starting in 1992, which is when I was old enough to pay attention, and ignoring incumbents:

1992: Clinton was the moderate
1996: Dole was the moderate
2000: People forget that Bush ran as a moderate because he's so polarizing now, but that's how he ran in 2000. Remember "Compassionate conservatism" and "I'm a uniter, not a divider?" I suppose it's debatable whether McCain was even more moderate. But clearly the primary voters quickly coalesced around the two most moderate candidates.
2004: Kerry was more moderate than Edwards
2008: McCain was clearly the most moderate of the Republicans. And Obama presented himself as a moderate post-partisan.

[perich]

Giuliani was the moderate

On which issues?

[robbbbbb]

She's also physically attractive. Don't underestimate that part of the equation. People respond to beautiful people.