Casey at the Bat.
Time for the annual preview. Per the usual, we'll start with my trio of teams.
The Joe Torre Era has officially come to an end. First, I'd like to take pause to really just say what a service he did for the team in his tenure. Far and away one of the greatest managers, not only in Yankee history, but in baseball itself. His work will not be forgotten. Good luck in LA, Joe.
So for the first time in 13 years, there's a new coach running the show. The coaching carousel was rampant with nominees. Don Mattingly, Tony Pena, Tony La Russa, even Bobby Valentine's name was thrown in there. But they ultimately picked the right guy for the job in Joe Girardi. I was even on the Sportsline message board shortly after, and Red Sox fans were saying they wished they didn't pick him as he was the most qualified for the job. It's kinda weird seeing Girardi coach since I remember seeing him play as a kid. So I can just imagine the adjustment needed for the players who are still on the team that played along side him. But they seem to be buying into his philosiphies. Torre was a players manager meaning he felt for them and helped them out. But sometimes you do need that kick in the butt, which Girardi is supplying. Supposedly, they're better conditioned than they were last year by doing a lot of running. By all means, Joe, keep it up. If Spring Training is any indication (I take no solace in Spring Training, good or bad, but...) he's got a pretty smooth ship to sail, setting up the Yanks for victory. Let's hope he can translate all that into 162+ games.
There aren't a lot of big additions. Most of the offseason was spent making sure to bring back all their potential departees, which they successfully did (sans Luis Vizcaino). Posada, Mariano, Pettitte, and A-Rod are all remaining in pinstripes. The Yankees would've been doomed without any of them, methinks. I'm willing to put the whole A-Rod opt-out fiasco behind me, but I'm still not a big fan of his personally. He has to earn his keep in my mind,and we all know the old mantra: playoffs. Hopefully there's a return trip back there so he gets another chance to redeem himself.
All the "experts" are saying the weak link in the Yankees is their pitching. While I agree to an extent, I don't think it'll be as bad as some people want to make it out to be. The bullpen is going to be the question mark, more particularly the middle relief. The 8th and 9th innings are locked down with Joba and Mo fielding those roles respectively. But in between them, there's LaTroy Hawkins, Ross Ohlendorf, and ... who else? Hawkins is a worthy vet who I expect good results, taking on the punch out role that Vizcaino had last year. Ohlendorf has made the successful transition from starter to reliever. We'll have to see just how he handles it. But who else is after that? Jonathan Albejado is starting the year on the team, but only until Andy Pettitte is ready to come off the DL. Hopefully they can establish themselves early as strong points.
Then you look at the rotation. They still lack a definitive #1 starter, which will come back to haunt them. But where they lack a #1, they make up for with ample gunning arms. Hopefully Andy Pettitte isn't injury prone all year where he can supply big time results like he has in the past. Phil Hughes will take the next step this year and become a power pitcher, racking up the K's. Ian Kennedy will be the surprise. When you talk about their young pitching, he's usually the last one mentioned. But I predict a monster year from him. Or, let's put it this way, for Cashman's sake, I hope he does. Otherwise refusing to part with him for Johan Santana will look foolish. Chien Ming Wang is a lock for another 15+ win season if he stays healthy. That sinkerball is one of the best in the business, and he's been working on a four-seam fastball that clearly was effective in spring training when he struck out 7. The big question is going to be Mike Mussina. Moose is clearly in the twilight of his career. He fell apart at the seams last year. But out of the gate he's looked good in spring training. While I don't expect him to anchor the rotation by any means--he's clearly the fifth starter whether anyone wants to admit it or not--I think he can still show flashes of his former self. If they can win 1 out of 2 of his starts, I think it'll be ok.
No need to explain the offense, which is still solid and hasn't changed much at all since last year. I don't expect the career year A-Rod had last year, but I do expect some big numbers. A .300/30/100 season and I'll be satisfied with his input. It's everyone else that needs to step up.
I'm afraid the Yankees are become the New Braves. Make the playoffs every year, then bomb. Last three years were exits in the first round because of incapable offense and unprepared pitching. Hopefully they get another shot at it. This team looks different, but I still think they have that intangible figure that helps them overcome.
Best Case Scenario: AL Pennant
Worst Case Scenario: Injuries, old age, and bad pitching result in no playoffs.
Realistic Scenario: 90-win season with a ticket to the playoffs
The Mets were the team that pulled the trigger on Johan Santana. After last year's crushing collapse, they needed to do something drastic. Though they sold the farm to get Santana, it should prove to be worth it. There are so few bona fide aces left in the league. They need to get the confidence back in their fans, and this move worked. To say it beefed up their pitching is an understatement. That said, there pitching is still going to be their weakness. Santana will be a lock every 5th game. But after him it's hit or miss. Pedro is coming off a year of injuries, so it'll be interesting to see if he can come back to form at all. John Maine has been a pleasant surprise, but his pitches aren't exactly on par with Santana. So hitters who were second guessing themselves before may hack away and make Maine a pinata. Oliver Perez has always been hit or miss. He can have a good outing one day and then tank the next. Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez is another year older and who knows how effective he can be anymore. And Mike Pelfrey didn't look like what the Mets had hoped for last year. The bullpen is also a mystery. Also, can Billy Wagner retain his fiery left hander mantra? The pitching will make or break the Mets this year. Santana was a step in the right direction, but who knows what they're going to get from everyone else.
The lineup lost Paul Lo Duca, but as he was losing a step, it's welcome. The defensive minded Brian Schneider is a welcome replacement. The top of the line up will maintain to be where the scoring needs to take place. Carlos Beltran and David Wright as well as a healthy Moises Alou (currently on the DL, surprise surprise) need to rack up the runs and RBIs to give this team enough to have a chance to win when Santana isn't pitching. The hex over Carlos Delgado needs to be lifted. He hasn't been the homerun machine the Mets hoped for when they traded for him. And now that he's been tanking during the preseason, you have to wonder just what is wrong with him. Did he slip that far from his prime already? He needs to be a force to be reckoned with, not only so he could knock in some runs, but also for protection throughout the lineup. Back in the day, Delgado was one of the best left-handed hitters in the game. He needs to get in touch with that guy right away.
One thing the Mets are is prepared. They've been waiting for Opening Day since the last game of last year's regular season. They need to get the bad taste of their historic collapse out of their minds. I'm sure the fans feel the same way. They've got a team well worthy to compete. Hopefully they get the final nail down and bring the NL East back home.
Best Case Scenario: NL East title, NLCS berth
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching (sans Santana) explodes, Delgado remains in his funk, Alou and Pedro spend more time on the DL than on the field, massive disappointment and out of the playoffs
Realistic Scenario: An awesome back and forth clawing with the Phillies for the NL East.
It baffles me somewhat that teams can rise and fall and rise again and fall again within the course of 15 years. What have the Pirates been doing the last 15 years? Falling. And staying down. They've had 15 consecutive losing seasons, and there's no reason to think they won't make it 16. They have a lot of scrappy players and some pretty showy pitching. But you need more than scrappiness and showiness to make it in this league. They lack a veteran leader (unless you consider Matt fucking Morris a leader). They lack true power. And they lack a whole hell of a lot. Hell, besides certain players, there isn't even much potential to these guys.
So why do I still insist the Pirates are one of my teams? Because I like their charisma. I like their history. And I know one of these years they're going to turn it around. Now, I'm not saying they're my team just because I'll be able to say "I WAS ROOTING FOR THEM BEFORE!" (granted I will be saying that, but that's not the reason). I say it because I've always had a thing for them. They're so rootable, even in decades of cellar-dwelling.
One thing I would look for is the Pirates trying to move Jason Bay. I was against this move before, but now I realize that Bay isn't a leader. He would be good in a better lineup where he doesn't have to be The Guy. But I think the Pirates are trying to get rid of the tag that they're just a feeding ground for the high market teams, thus won't trade him.
It's going to be another long year for the Pirates. But I'll still visit their site for updates every day like I've done in the past.These guys are the new "loveable losers".
Tom Gorzellany. I love that name.
Best Case Scenario: Less than 15 games under .500
Worst Case Scenario: More than 105 losses.
Realistic Scenario: Last place in the NL Central, but hopefully not the worst team in the league.
And the rest of the picks are as follows...
AL East
1 - New York Yankees
2 - Boston Red Sox
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles
Mark my words, the Sox pitching will be worse than last year. It'll still be good, but not nearly AS good. And I don't care, they're still the Devil Rays to me.
AL Central
1 - Cleveland Indians
2 - Detroit Tigers
3 - Chicago White Sox
4 - Kansas City Royals
5 - Minnesota Twins
Everyone's so quick to annoint the Tigers as the best team in the league. They're not even the best in their division in my book. Miguel Cabrera definitely helps, but the offense isn't what needed help here. Besides Verlander, who do the Tigers have for pitchers? I rest my case. Also, this is the year the Royals get out of the cellar. I'm calling it right now.
AL West
1 - Seattle Mariners
2 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3 - Oakland A's
4 - Texas Rangers
Everyone's so quick to dismiss the Angels. The Mariners have a lot to prove, but I do believe they'll get the job done.
NL East
1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies
3 - Atlanta Braves
4 - Florida Marlins
5 - Washington Marlins
It's going to come down to the last week to decide the divison, but I think the Mets take it by 2 games.
NL Central
1 - Chicago Cubs
2 - Houston Astros
3 - Milwaukee Brewers
4 - St. Louis Cardinals
5 - Cincinnati Reds
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the weakest division in baseball, so virtually everyone is in it... except the Pirates and Reds. They are perennially out of it by May.
NL West
1 - San Diego Padres
2 - Colorado Rockies
3 - Los Angeles Dodgers
4 - Arizona Diamondbacks
5 - San Francisco Giants
Meanwhile, this is the best division in baseball. You can make a great case for any of the top 4 teams. The only automatic is the Giants in the cellar. I went with the team that has the most experience, and arguably the best pitcher in the NL (yes, even against Santana).
AL Wild Card
Boston Red Sox
AL MVP
Grady Sizemore - Cleveland
AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander - Detroit
AL Coach of the Year
Joe Girardi - New York
AL Surprise Team
Kansas City Royals
NL Wild Card
Philadelphia Phillies
NL MVP
David Wright - New York
NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy - San Diego
NL Coach of the Year
Lou Pinella - Chicago
NL Surprise Team
Houston Astros
Playoffs
Seattle defeats NY Yankees
Cleveland defeats Boston
NY Mets defeat Chicago
San Diego defeats Philadelphia
Cleveland defeats Seattle
San Diego defeats NY Mets
ALCS MVP
Cici Sabathia
NLCS MVP
Trevor Hoffman
Cleveland defeats San Diego
World Series MVP
Victor Martinez
The Joe Torre Era has officially come to an end. First, I'd like to take pause to really just say what a service he did for the team in his tenure. Far and away one of the greatest managers, not only in Yankee history, but in baseball itself. His work will not be forgotten. Good luck in LA, Joe.
So for the first time in 13 years, there's a new coach running the show. The coaching carousel was rampant with nominees. Don Mattingly, Tony Pena, Tony La Russa, even Bobby Valentine's name was thrown in there. But they ultimately picked the right guy for the job in Joe Girardi. I was even on the Sportsline message board shortly after, and Red Sox fans were saying they wished they didn't pick him as he was the most qualified for the job. It's kinda weird seeing Girardi coach since I remember seeing him play as a kid. So I can just imagine the adjustment needed for the players who are still on the team that played along side him. But they seem to be buying into his philosiphies. Torre was a players manager meaning he felt for them and helped them out. But sometimes you do need that kick in the butt, which Girardi is supplying. Supposedly, they're better conditioned than they were last year by doing a lot of running. By all means, Joe, keep it up. If Spring Training is any indication (I take no solace in Spring Training, good or bad, but...) he's got a pretty smooth ship to sail, setting up the Yanks for victory. Let's hope he can translate all that into 162+ games.
There aren't a lot of big additions. Most of the offseason was spent making sure to bring back all their potential departees, which they successfully did (sans Luis Vizcaino). Posada, Mariano, Pettitte, and A-Rod are all remaining in pinstripes. The Yankees would've been doomed without any of them, methinks. I'm willing to put the whole A-Rod opt-out fiasco behind me, but I'm still not a big fan of his personally. He has to earn his keep in my mind,and we all know the old mantra: playoffs. Hopefully there's a return trip back there so he gets another chance to redeem himself.
All the "experts" are saying the weak link in the Yankees is their pitching. While I agree to an extent, I don't think it'll be as bad as some people want to make it out to be. The bullpen is going to be the question mark, more particularly the middle relief. The 8th and 9th innings are locked down with Joba and Mo fielding those roles respectively. But in between them, there's LaTroy Hawkins, Ross Ohlendorf, and ... who else? Hawkins is a worthy vet who I expect good results, taking on the punch out role that Vizcaino had last year. Ohlendorf has made the successful transition from starter to reliever. We'll have to see just how he handles it. But who else is after that? Jonathan Albejado is starting the year on the team, but only until Andy Pettitte is ready to come off the DL. Hopefully they can establish themselves early as strong points.
Then you look at the rotation. They still lack a definitive #1 starter, which will come back to haunt them. But where they lack a #1, they make up for with ample gunning arms. Hopefully Andy Pettitte isn't injury prone all year where he can supply big time results like he has in the past. Phil Hughes will take the next step this year and become a power pitcher, racking up the K's. Ian Kennedy will be the surprise. When you talk about their young pitching, he's usually the last one mentioned. But I predict a monster year from him. Or, let's put it this way, for Cashman's sake, I hope he does. Otherwise refusing to part with him for Johan Santana will look foolish. Chien Ming Wang is a lock for another 15+ win season if he stays healthy. That sinkerball is one of the best in the business, and he's been working on a four-seam fastball that clearly was effective in spring training when he struck out 7. The big question is going to be Mike Mussina. Moose is clearly in the twilight of his career. He fell apart at the seams last year. But out of the gate he's looked good in spring training. While I don't expect him to anchor the rotation by any means--he's clearly the fifth starter whether anyone wants to admit it or not--I think he can still show flashes of his former self. If they can win 1 out of 2 of his starts, I think it'll be ok.
No need to explain the offense, which is still solid and hasn't changed much at all since last year. I don't expect the career year A-Rod had last year, but I do expect some big numbers. A .300/30/100 season and I'll be satisfied with his input. It's everyone else that needs to step up.
I'm afraid the Yankees are become the New Braves. Make the playoffs every year, then bomb. Last three years were exits in the first round because of incapable offense and unprepared pitching. Hopefully they get another shot at it. This team looks different, but I still think they have that intangible figure that helps them overcome.
Best Case Scenario: AL Pennant
Worst Case Scenario: Injuries, old age, and bad pitching result in no playoffs.
Realistic Scenario: 90-win season with a ticket to the playoffs
The Mets were the team that pulled the trigger on Johan Santana. After last year's crushing collapse, they needed to do something drastic. Though they sold the farm to get Santana, it should prove to be worth it. There are so few bona fide aces left in the league. They need to get the confidence back in their fans, and this move worked. To say it beefed up their pitching is an understatement. That said, there pitching is still going to be their weakness. Santana will be a lock every 5th game. But after him it's hit or miss. Pedro is coming off a year of injuries, so it'll be interesting to see if he can come back to form at all. John Maine has been a pleasant surprise, but his pitches aren't exactly on par with Santana. So hitters who were second guessing themselves before may hack away and make Maine a pinata. Oliver Perez has always been hit or miss. He can have a good outing one day and then tank the next. Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez is another year older and who knows how effective he can be anymore. And Mike Pelfrey didn't look like what the Mets had hoped for last year. The bullpen is also a mystery. Also, can Billy Wagner retain his fiery left hander mantra? The pitching will make or break the Mets this year. Santana was a step in the right direction, but who knows what they're going to get from everyone else.
The lineup lost Paul Lo Duca, but as he was losing a step, it's welcome. The defensive minded Brian Schneider is a welcome replacement. The top of the line up will maintain to be where the scoring needs to take place. Carlos Beltran and David Wright as well as a healthy Moises Alou (currently on the DL, surprise surprise) need to rack up the runs and RBIs to give this team enough to have a chance to win when Santana isn't pitching. The hex over Carlos Delgado needs to be lifted. He hasn't been the homerun machine the Mets hoped for when they traded for him. And now that he's been tanking during the preseason, you have to wonder just what is wrong with him. Did he slip that far from his prime already? He needs to be a force to be reckoned with, not only so he could knock in some runs, but also for protection throughout the lineup. Back in the day, Delgado was one of the best left-handed hitters in the game. He needs to get in touch with that guy right away.
One thing the Mets are is prepared. They've been waiting for Opening Day since the last game of last year's regular season. They need to get the bad taste of their historic collapse out of their minds. I'm sure the fans feel the same way. They've got a team well worthy to compete. Hopefully they get the final nail down and bring the NL East back home.
Best Case Scenario: NL East title, NLCS berth
Worst Case Scenario: The pitching (sans Santana) explodes, Delgado remains in his funk, Alou and Pedro spend more time on the DL than on the field, massive disappointment and out of the playoffs
Realistic Scenario: An awesome back and forth clawing with the Phillies for the NL East.
It baffles me somewhat that teams can rise and fall and rise again and fall again within the course of 15 years. What have the Pirates been doing the last 15 years? Falling. And staying down. They've had 15 consecutive losing seasons, and there's no reason to think they won't make it 16. They have a lot of scrappy players and some pretty showy pitching. But you need more than scrappiness and showiness to make it in this league. They lack a veteran leader (unless you consider Matt fucking Morris a leader). They lack true power. And they lack a whole hell of a lot. Hell, besides certain players, there isn't even much potential to these guys.
So why do I still insist the Pirates are one of my teams? Because I like their charisma. I like their history. And I know one of these years they're going to turn it around. Now, I'm not saying they're my team just because I'll be able to say "I WAS ROOTING FOR THEM BEFORE!" (granted I will be saying that, but that's not the reason). I say it because I've always had a thing for them. They're so rootable, even in decades of cellar-dwelling.
One thing I would look for is the Pirates trying to move Jason Bay. I was against this move before, but now I realize that Bay isn't a leader. He would be good in a better lineup where he doesn't have to be The Guy. But I think the Pirates are trying to get rid of the tag that they're just a feeding ground for the high market teams, thus won't trade him.
It's going to be another long year for the Pirates. But I'll still visit their site for updates every day like I've done in the past.These guys are the new "loveable losers".
Tom Gorzellany. I love that name.
Best Case Scenario: Less than 15 games under .500
Worst Case Scenario: More than 105 losses.
Realistic Scenario: Last place in the NL Central, but hopefully not the worst team in the league.
And the rest of the picks are as follows...
AL East
1 - New York Yankees
2 - Boston Red Sox
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay (Devil) Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles
Mark my words, the Sox pitching will be worse than last year. It'll still be good, but not nearly AS good. And I don't care, they're still the Devil Rays to me.
AL Central
1 - Cleveland Indians
2 - Detroit Tigers
3 - Chicago White Sox
4 - Kansas City Royals
5 - Minnesota Twins
Everyone's so quick to annoint the Tigers as the best team in the league. They're not even the best in their division in my book. Miguel Cabrera definitely helps, but the offense isn't what needed help here. Besides Verlander, who do the Tigers have for pitchers? I rest my case. Also, this is the year the Royals get out of the cellar. I'm calling it right now.
AL West
1 - Seattle Mariners
2 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3 - Oakland A's
4 - Texas Rangers
Everyone's so quick to dismiss the Angels. The Mariners have a lot to prove, but I do believe they'll get the job done.
NL East
1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies
3 - Atlanta Braves
4 - Florida Marlins
5 - Washington Marlins
It's going to come down to the last week to decide the divison, but I think the Mets take it by 2 games.
NL Central
1 - Chicago Cubs
2 - Houston Astros
3 - Milwaukee Brewers
4 - St. Louis Cardinals
5 - Cincinnati Reds
6 - Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the weakest division in baseball, so virtually everyone is in it... except the Pirates and Reds. They are perennially out of it by May.
NL West
1 - San Diego Padres
2 - Colorado Rockies
3 - Los Angeles Dodgers
4 - Arizona Diamondbacks
5 - San Francisco Giants
Meanwhile, this is the best division in baseball. You can make a great case for any of the top 4 teams. The only automatic is the Giants in the cellar. I went with the team that has the most experience, and arguably the best pitcher in the NL (yes, even against Santana).
AL Wild Card
Boston Red Sox
AL MVP
Grady Sizemore - Cleveland
AL Cy Young
Justin Verlander - Detroit
AL Coach of the Year
Joe Girardi - New York
AL Surprise Team
Kansas City Royals
NL Wild Card
Philadelphia Phillies
NL MVP
David Wright - New York
NL Cy Young
Jake Peavy - San Diego
NL Coach of the Year
Lou Pinella - Chicago
NL Surprise Team
Houston Astros
Playoffs
Seattle defeats NY Yankees
Cleveland defeats Boston
NY Mets defeat Chicago
San Diego defeats Philadelphia
Cleveland defeats Seattle
San Diego defeats NY Mets
ALCS MVP
Cici Sabathia
NLCS MVP
Trevor Hoffman
Cleveland defeats San Diego
World Series MVP
Victor Martinez