April can only mean one thing: Major League Baseball has started! I love baseball. With still many props given to football and baskeball, baseball is my favorite spectator sport. There are just so many stories that unfold during the course of the season. So many surprises, so many heroes, so many amazing plays. So here it comes, my annual preview:
As always, let's start with the teams near and dear to my heart.
The Bronx Bombers are back for more, ready to take another AL East Division title, completing their decade of dominance. It's going to be a tough road though. Most "experts" think the questions the Yankees face are going to blow up in their face, and that the Red Sox will take advantage. But honestly, what do those "experts" know anyway? They've been claiming the Yanks were going to fall off each of the last 4 years. So I've already long disregarded what any of these so-called experts say. Besides, if you ask me, the Red Sox have far more formidable questions. How exactly will Mr. Gyroball adapt to the major leagues? And don't give me no shit about how stellar he was in spring training. Spring training is essentially playing against minor leaguers with a few major leaguers mixed in. I take absolutely no solace out of spring training games, that includes if the Yankees do well. So Daisuke is still a question mark. Also, how long until JD Drew breaks his back again? Can the Sox get any chemistry out of their hodgepodge team? Will Curt Schilling's heel just fall off? Can Papelbon actually pitch an entire season? See, these are questions they must overcome.
But back to the Yankees. Once again, they have probably the most brutal lineup in the majors. And actually, this is one of their weaker lineups in the last couple years, if you ask me. Last couple years, they could beat you 1 - 9. But now, it looks like there will be a small, one position gap where opposing pitchers can say "Phew, an out". I do speak of Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yankees admit he's only on board to shore up the defense at that corner of the infield. And on defense, I don't think you can do much better in the bigs. And that's a good thing, because offensively, he sure isn't anything special. No lightning-quick hands, no homerun strength, not much of a speed threat. He does surprise with a little pop occasionally. But otherwise, take the out, and move along to Robbie Cano. Still, even with Doug filling that hole, it's still a very deep lineup. Any time you can bat Hideki Matsui 6th, it's a pretty damn good lineup. Injuries have to be at a minimum. Melky Cabrera really stepped up when Hideki went down, and he'll be there if one of the outfielders falls victim to the injury bug again. But any infielder goes down, and the Yanks could be in trouble. True, they have Miguel Cairo waiting for an offer. But the farm system has some less than steller-options available in worst case scenario.
The pitching is going to be a strength, I don't care what any goddamned "expert" says. The rotation is easily better than last year's. Randy Johnson took his broken back packing, as did Jaret Wright and his explosive inconsistency. That's addition by subtraction there. Adding to the equation Bronx and playoff proven fan favorite Andy Pettitte, Japanese strikeout king Kei Igawa, as well as a healthy Carl Pavano (I know, I hate him too. But let's face it, a healthy Pavano is probably better than the next best option). Wang, when he comes back from his injury, will be a sinker-ball machine and rack up the wins again. A sinker-ball ace? Whoda thunk? Plus, if Mussina repeats his awesome year last year, this could be a great season for the Yankee rotation. The injuries are already racking up for the rotation though. Wang is already on the DL for the first month iwth a hammy issue. Jeff Karstens, the team's insurance policy, also is on the DL. But they won't be gone long. Karstens is one of the kids I look forward to seeing this year. He's going to be a starter by next year, I all but guarantee it. Also, Darrell Rasner is showing a lot of promise. Humberto Sanchez and Ohlendorf are also looking to make waves. Plus, there's some kid named Phil Hughes, don't know if you've heard of him. After the looks he got in spring training, he'll need some time in AAA to work himself into the groove. But there is very little doubt in anyone's mind that he's coming up to the majors at some point this year. Health is the issue for the rotation. Stay healthy and they'll be on target.
The bullpen, meanwhile, will be one of the best 'pens in the league. Scott Proctor is Torre's go-to guy, and he did not disappoint last year. Luis Vizcaino looks to be a quality addition. Kyle Farnsworth will hopefully be improved if Torre doesn't feel like he's forced to go to him as much as he did last year. And dear god, don't let him close. The time he was closer when Mo went down caused for some heart-attack save opportunities. On top of those guys, there will be Sean Henn, who looked dynamite in spring training as a relieve, plus Brian Bruney who shocked everyone with a stellar performance last year. When Jeff Karstens comes back to fill up the long-relief role, the bullpen will solidify. I'm going out on a limb this year and saying that they will have the lowest comprised bullpen ERA of anyone in the American League (yes, I'm even talking better than the likes of Anaheim or Boston too). Mariano Rivera. That's all that needs to be said.
I don't predict any atmospheric numbers. There won't be any 50 homerun hitters. There won't be any 20 game winners. The team is well capable of it, but I don't predict a 100 win season this year. However, I do see that if everything goes to plan, they will hoist yet another AL East flag. I'm going to agree with some stories that I've seen that the absolute catalyst to the team this year is going to be Jorge Posada. He's on the last year of his contract, and it's been made pretty clear that the Yankees want him to work for his money. I'm fairly sure that they are going to offer him a contract at the end of the year (because honestly, where else are they going to go?). How much and how long depends on how he does this year. But I predict yet another big year out of him. Everyone seems to poke at the fact that he's at the age where catchers usually decline. But for whatever reason, Posada isn't. His offensive numbers are still stout, and while his defense isn't the best, he can still deliver a snap throw to second to nail a speedy basestealer. His offensive numbers aren't the reason why Jorge is the most important member of this team. His leadership is a huge quality. His endurance is amazing. And his ability to work with pitchers, both old and new, is not overlooked. Also, look in the fact that if Posada is met with injury, the Yankees will be royally screwed. Wil Nieves is Posada's backup catcher. And while Nieves plays stellar defense, his offensive numbers and intangibles pale in comparison. Depending on how long the injury is, the Yankees might be forced to shop for a catcher, and the price would be steep in players and money. Posada is primed for a big year. The Yankees success hinges on how well he plays and staying off the DL.
Best Case Scenario: 2007 World Series Champions.
Worst Case Scenario: Jorge Posada gets injured, rotation blows up, miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.
Realistic Scenario: Decade of Dominance: 10th straight AL East title, ALCS berth.
The New York Metropolitans. A fantastic year last year. I won't say it was surprising, but it sure must've knocked some people back. They delivered a national league best record, mostly done without a whole lot of healthy pitching. The lineup mashed out some big games, and the Mets got into the playoffs for the first time since they were in the World Series. They came within one inning of going to another World Series before meeting their end in a fantastic game 7 against the eventual champion Cardinals.
This year, the Mets did little on an offseason standpoint. But if something isn't broke, why fix it? They brought in a couple minor leaguers, as well as releasing Cliff Floyd in trade for an aging Moises Alou. Alou still has some life left in the bat, but they seem to be clearing a seat for him to hit the DL some time this season. The lineup is fierce yet again. Reyes, LoDuca, Beltran, Wright, Delgado. That is a scary lineup already. If the bottom half of it can hold water, they'll once again be the most dynamic lineup in the NL.
The biggest glaring problem with the Mets is their starting rotation. Pedro is still locked up on the DL with his foot issue, and he's going to be staying there until the All-Star Break. Right now, their starting 5 looks like this: Tom Glavine - Orlando Hernandez - John Maine - Oliver Perez. The fifth spot is completely up for grabs. Insiders think former big-league star Aaron Sele has the inside track on it, but minor league prodigy Mike Pelfrey is also a worthy candidate. They may share the spot. At any rate, that's not a very scary rotation. El Duque is still a good pitcher. But he's definitely not 2nd starter good. And any time you have John Maine locking up 3rd, you know you're in trouble. He and Oliver Perez pitched excellently during the playoffs last year, but it's hard to see them continuing that same wealth of dominance. I mean, there's a reason why the Pirates gave up on Perez. This is why the Mets should've made a serious run at Barry Zito. They would at least have a dominant, definite ace. As it is, they're going to scour the trade market in hopes to find a good arm. They have Lastings Milledge as a bargaining chip they're willing to part with, so they might be able to haul in a pretty reliable arm with it.
The bullpen will once again look absolutely godly. Pedro Feliciano, Aaron Heilman, Scott Schoenewis, newly acquired Ambiorix Burgos, minor league jaw-dropper Joe Smith, currently on the DL but still can nail the coffin shut Duaner Sanchez, and (when he gets back from his steroid suspension) Guillermo Mota. All those guys have the capability of being go-to guys. Bases loaded, high pressure situations? All these guys have the ability to get that out and keep all the bases sacked. Mota and Burgos are the flamethrowers. Sanchez and Feliciano are the finesse guys. And the rest can get the ball right up to Billy Wagner. This is the bullpen dreams are made of.
The NL East is the Mets' to lose. They really have only one opponent vying to take it from them (the Phillies), but I definitely don't foresee that this year. Philly is missing too much to challenge. The Mets are going to be one of, if not THE best, team in the National League again this year.
Best Case Scenario: 100-win season, World Series berth.
Worst Case Scenario: Rotation proves it's ineffectiveness, lose out on the NL East, miss playoffs altogether.
Realistic Scenario: 2nd straight NL East title, NLCS berth.
What are we going to do with you, Pittsburgh? We want to believe in you, but every year, you manage to shatter any and all faith we put into you. However, this year, we like what you're doing (why am I talking like I have a symbiote spawn attached to me). The Pirates left 2006 on a good note. They had a spectacular run the last month and a half and, even though saddled with an 8 game losing streak, still finished that month and a half with an above .500 clip (37-35). If they can find some way to translate that kind of success into 162 games, they can finally achieve my dream: a Pittsburgh record above .500! This year looks like a good year that it could happen. Freddy Sanchez is a machine with a bat. Last year's NL batting champ looks to give Pittsburgh a huge lift. The lineup got a big boost with the acquisition of Adam LaRoche. Sticking him behind Jason Bay in the lineup will only do wonders for Bay. Now pitchers can't pitch around him, giving Bay a lot of pitches to look at. I predict a huge year out of Bay. Dare I say MVP-like numbers? Once again, the Pirates have a pretty underrated front half of their rotation. Zach Duke will be a monster as the ace, and Ian Snell will make a name for himself around the majors. It's going to be the back half of the rotation, as well as the suspect bullpen, that'll hinder the Bucs. A lot of the bullpen is unproven. Solomon Torres isn't exactly the guy you want locking the door in games. But he is the best at the job that the Pirates have. Still, I see the Pirates improving, and if they can ride the high they got at the end of last year, it should be an interesting team.... that of course assuming they don't trade all their players like they seemingly always do.
Best Case Scenario: Record above .500, Wild Card contention into August
Worst Case Scenario: Rock bottom.
Realistic Scenario: Record only 10 or fewer games under .500, Jason Bay has some arguments for MVP, 4th place in NL Central.
Here are the rest of my picks:
AL East
1 - New York Yankees
2 - Boston Red Sox
3 - Toronto Blue Jays
4 - Tampa Bay Devil Rays
5 - Baltimore Orioles
AL Central
1 - Detroit Tigers
2 - Chicago White Sox
3 - Minnesota Twins
4 - Cleveland Indians
5 - Kansas City Royals
AL West
1 - Oakland A's
2 - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
3 - Seattle Mariners
4 - Texas Rangers
NL East
1 - New York Mets
2 - Philadelphia Phillies
3 - Florida Marlins
4 - Atlanta Braves
5 - Washington Nationals
NL Central
1 - St. Louis Cardinals
2 - Houston Astros
3 - Chicago Cubs
4 - Pittsburgh Pirates
5 - Cincinatti Reds
6 - Milwaukee Brewers
NL West
1 - Colorado Rockies
2 - Los Angeles Dodgers
3 - San Francisco Giants
4 - San Diego Padres
5 - Arizona Diamondbacks
(yeah, I went there. I think the NL West is a crapshoot. I also think that Colorado is underrated and has made even more improvements from last year.)
AL Wild Card
Boston Red Sox
AL MVP
David Ortiz - Boston
AL Cy Young
Rich Harden - Oakland
AL Coach of the Year
Joe Torre - New York
NL Wild Card
Philadelphia Phillies
NL MVP
Miguel Cabrera - Florida
NL Cy Young
Bronson Arroyo - Cincinatti
NL Coach of the Year
Clint Hurdle - Colorado
Playoffs
NY Yankees defeat Oakland
Boston defeats Detroit
NY Mets defeat Colorado
St. Louis defeats Philadelphia
NY Yankees defeat Boston
NY Mets defeat St. Louis
ALCS MVP
Alex Rodriguez
NLCS MVP
David Wright
NY Yankees defeat NY Mets
World Series MVP
Robinson Cano
(Note: Just because my picks match my bias means nothing. NOTHING I SAY!)