Kentucky Derby 2011
So, the post position draw for the Derby was today. I'm not following the sport like I used to, especially now that I no longer have TVG since Mom and Dad moved out, but I still try to follow it occasionally, and I've been following the trail a little. So, let's have a look and see at what's planning to be in the gate on Saturday!
1. Archarcharch (10-1) T: Jinks Fires J: Jon Court
dkb/br c by Arch out of Woodman's Dancer by Woodman [KY]
record: 6 starts, 3-1-1, total earnings: $832,744
I have heard this horse's name thrown around a lot, but nothing really sticks to my memory, though I am far, far too amused at that trainer's name. This horse looks to me like a wild card. I know next to nothing about the progeny of Arch, and Woodman as a broodmare sire is, well, mediocre as far as I know. This colt is one big question mark. And considering the cavalry charge that the first quarter mile of the race is, I have a feeling this youngster will end up with a face-full of dirt and will never factor into the race. I could be wrong, but there are so many question marks here that I think 10-1 is generous.
2. Brilliant Speed (30-1) T: Tom Albertrani J: Joel Rosario
dkb/br c by Dynaformer out of Speed Succeeds by Gone West [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-2-2, total earnings: $515,750
With a name like that, I expected a sprinter's pedigree. What the hell is this? That's a turf pedigree all the way around. Mind you, Barbaro (another son of Dynaformer) was a grass horse who took to Churchill's dirt without batting an eyelash. The Dynaformers can definitely run on dirt (especially if it rains -- they love the slop, I swear!) However, I'm impressed with the Dynaformers as a whole. They may not be the fastest horses out there, but they are sturdy and persistent, and they generally make a good showing of themselves. And as far as I know, no son of Dynaformer has come even close to being as successful a sire as he is, so there probably won't be any rush to hurry this guy off to stud unless he wins the Triple Crown. If he flops here, I wouldn't be surprised if Live Oak pulls him, gives him a rest, and then throws him out onto the grass next time.
3. Twice the Appeal (20-1) T: Jeff Bonde J: Calvin Borel
dkb/br c by Successful Appeal out of Double Boarded by Cormorant [KY]
record: 10 starts, 3-2-1, total earnings: $449,920
The only reason this critter isn't 50-1 is his jockey. Bo-rail has won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies, and some history is riding with him this time: if he wins, he'll become the first jockey to win back to back Derbies three years in a row. It's been won twice in a row by five different jockeys (including Borel) but no one has won three in a row. This horse has no quality at all, but as we saw with Mine That Bird (who unfortunately was mediocre at best) you don't have to be the best horse to win the Kentucky Derby. You don't even need to normally be able to win at a mile and a quarter (which, based on that pedigree, I'd say is a little beyond this guy). You just need to have the race fall apart in front of you and have a jockey with enough experience to recognize when that happens and enough guts to take advantage of it. Twice the Appeal has a fighting chance at this, but only because this is the motherfucking Kentucky Derby and he's got the King of Churchill Downs in the irons. Other than that, he's a throwaway. If he wins this race, it'll just further prove that the Kentucky Derby is a crapshoot and a jockey's race.
4. Stay Thirsty (20-1) T: Todd Pletcher J: Ramon Dominguez
dkb/br c by Bernardini out of Marozia by Storm Bird [KY]
record: 6 starts, 2-2-0, total earnings: $300,00
One of the few leading 2yos of 2010 still around to dance the biggest dance of them all. I gotta tip my hat to Bernardini; he's looking like a promising young sire. As I recall, this colt has been collecting minor awards rather than winning big races, but all he needs as a damned good break and he could steal the race. He's bred for the distance, so the mile-and-a-quarter shouldn't bother him a bit. Other than that, I don't really know what to say. He's been in the mix, and I expect he won't be at the back of the field across the wire, but whether or not he wins, I don't really know.
5. Decisive Moment (30-1) T: Juan Arias J: Kerwin Clark
dkb/br c by With Distinction out of Lady Samira by Dehere [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-2-3, total earnings: $527,330
I really don't know anything about this guy. He's a complete mystery to me. I don't even know anything about his pedigree other than he's a grandson of Storm Cat and Dehere. I had to read up on him because he's such a question mark. Frankly, he's got no credentials that say he can win this, but as I keep saying, the Derby isn't about the best horse, it's about having the best luck. It looks to me like he's got a fair number of races under his belt, so he's familiar with what he's supposed to do. And it sounds to me like the owner is just happy to be part of the Derby; if the horse flops home last, it's no huge catastrophe. I don't give this horse much of a chance to win, but I have learned to not say that any one horse doesn't belong in the Derby gates. And frankly, if what I understand about the owner is true, I'd much rather see a horse like this in the gate anyway: the owner is racing because he loves the thrill of the sport, not because he's trying to cash in on a quick horse to send to the breeding shed.
6. Comma to the Top (30-1) T: Peter Miller J: Patrick Valenzuela
b g by Bwana Charlie out of Maggies Storm by Stormy Atlantic [FL]
record: 13 starts, 6-2-0, total earnings: $778,600
The first time I heard this guy's name, I thought it was a mistake. It makes no sense. I wonder if it's referring to the missing apostrophe in the dam's name. Interestingly enough, I remember reading that this horse wasn't going to be entered in this race, and sure enough, there are multiple mentions in articles that say that they want to give the horse a break instead of going to the Derby. I wonder what changed their minds? Well, in any case, he's an interesting horse and as I recall, he's kind of a speed horse (well, being by Bwana Charlie, a son of Indian Charlie, that makes sense) but he's struggled lately. And PVal. PVal won the Derby on Sunday Silence, but this horse is no Sunday Silence. We'll see what happens, I guess. Personally, I think he's got no chance to win, but he could feasibly be in the mix for the minor awards.
7. Pants on Fire (20-1) T: Kelly Breen J: Rosie Napravnik
dkb/br c by Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche by Cape Town [KY]
record: 8 starts, 2-3-1, total earnings: $678,100
A blue-collar pedigree, to be sure, but this horse has some guts. Some of those guts, to be fair, are in the irons. Rosie Napravnik is one of the gutsiest riders out there, I swear. She rides like she doesn't know she's a girl, or maybe more accurately, like she knows she's a girl and she wants to be respected by the guys. She certainly changed my opinion of female jockeys, and I'd love to see her win this just to prove that girls can win the Derby too. As for the horse himself? I... really have no opinion. Do I have to keep saying that this is a game of luck and jockeys? And Rosie Napravnik has got guts in spades, so her biggest failing will be that she's not as experienced in a race like this as Borel, so if it comes down to the two of them, I imagine Borel will get the advantage just because he's got more experience at this particular race. But take nothing away from Rosie -- she is one gutsy, gutsy gal, and I hope she and Pants on Fire show the world that girls can ride too. Oh yeah, and one more thing: my two favorite (and somewhat lucky) numbers are Seven and Seventeen. I always want to cheer for the 7 and 17 horses in the Kentucky Derby. The fact that Rosie Napravnik is on the 7 horse here? Icing on the cake!
8. Dialed In (4-1) T: Nick Zito J: Julien Leparoux
dkb/br c by Mineshaft out of Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat [KY]
record: 4 starts, 3-1-0, total earnings: $879,206
Aww, Zito. I love Nick Zito. Looking at this horse's pedigree, I'm rather floored. He's got champions all over the place in it! Mineshaft and A.P. Indy were both Horse of the Year in their respective days, Storm Cat was a top juvenile racer (though not a champion) and Eliza (dam of Miss Doolittle) was a Champion Two Year Old filly. However, this horse is a complete mystery to me, despite having been all the rage since he burst onto the scene. He's only raced four times. That just doesn't seem to me like enough experience, especially when you consider that Comma to the Top has three times as many races under his belt.
9. Derby Kitten (30-1) T: Mike Maker J: Javier Castellano
b c by Kitten's Joy out of Blush by Menifee [KY]
record: 9 starts, 2-3-1, total earnings: $172,333
Oh lookie. The Ramseys bred a Kitten's Joy colt expressly for the Derby, and he actually made it into the race. Actually, to be fair, I'm impressed. Since only 20 horses can run in this race, and probably a thousand times that many are born each year, for this horse to make it into the race he was apparently bred to race in is quite an achievement. It should also be noted that he raced against some pretty salty horses in his career. Mind you, he almost never beat any of those salty horses, and often was nowhere near them, but they are in his PP lines, so take that for what you will. Also, looking at his PPs, I'm not impressed with how long it took him to break his maiden, but perhaps he was a goof-off who only recently figured out what the hell this racing business is all about. We'll see what happens. He managed to squeak into the gate with the defection of another horse; when you compare his total earnings to everyone else, he just completely pales. One thing I do know for certain, though, is that the distance should be no problem, based on his pedigree. But that's about the only thing I see going for him.
10. Twinspired (30-1) T: Mike Maker J: Mike Smith
gr/r c by Harlan's Holiday out of Historical Drive by El Prado (Ire) [KY]
record: 8 starts, 2-1-1, total earnings: $264,830
To be perfectly honest, I don't even know who the hell this horse is, but as the only gray in the field, he'll stand out.
11. Master of Hounds (30-1) T: Aiden O'Brien J: Garret Gomez
b c by Kingmambo out of Silk and Scarlet (GB) by Sadler's Wells [KY]
record: 7 starts, 1-3-1, total earnings: $460,878
You again? This horse was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year and was soundly wholloped by Pluck, as I recall, and has since spent his time over in Ireland. He only raced once since getting his arse handed to him by Pluck and a host of other colts. I don't understand how they expect a horse based in Ireland to jump the pond and magically win the Kentucky Derby, but then again, this race is all about luck, and whoever Fortune smiles upon will be the one that wins. That's a kick-ass pedigree, by the way. A hell of a grass pedigree. Not so much for dirt, but wow, and he's already proven he can run on dirt (even if he can't necessarily win). Kingmambo is a brilliant stallion, and the late, great Sadler's Wells is a legend.
12. Santiva (30-1) T: Eddie Kenneally J: Shaun Bridgmohan
b c by Giants Causeway out of Slide by Smarten [KY]
record: 6 starts, 1-3-1, total earnings: $257,597
Another name I've heard kicked around for several months, but who apparently has yet to back up all the hype. He has a single win to his name, and that win, ironically, is not in a maiden special weight or even a maiden claiming -- he won a G2 at Churchill as a two-year-old. Nice pedigree, though. Giants Causeway's progeny can run just about any distance, and if I'm not mistaken, Smarten was a speed stallion, so with stamina on the top and speed on the bottom, this horse is bred for any distance. I'm just not convinced he can win this big race. He seems to have a lot of second-itis. It'd be pretty huge for his connections if he runs in the money, though, and that's not exactly out of the question.
13. Mucho Macho Man (12-1) T: Kathy Ritvo J: Rajiv Maragh
b c by Macho Uno out of Ponche de Leona by Ponche [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-3-2, total earnings: $410,463
Well, there's always the token dumb-name entry. Bleh. Despite all that, this horse is a model of consistency. He's been in the money in seven of his eight lifetime races, and the one time he was out of the money, he was bumped hard in the chute, according to the PPs, and he still managed to come in 4th, with at least four other horses behind him despite being out of the money. I don't expect him to win this race, but he should put in a good show. He would be a good horse to use in exotics, if I were going to bet them, and at the least, a couple of bucks on him to show might turn a nice little profit. Might. Don't really know. He's faced full fields before, but never anything like this.
14. Shackleford (12-1) T: Dale Romans J: Jesus Castenon
ch c by Forestry out of Oatsee by Unbridled [KY]
record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, total earnings: $271,666
Finally! A chestnut! I was starting to wonder if the rules had changed to disallow chestnuts in the race! In any case, I know nothing of his merits, and the only thing I can say about him is that every time I see his name, I keep thinking of Sir Shackleton (who ran against Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby, to give you an idea of how long ago this was) but he's not in the least bit related to Sir Shackleton. Go figure. They are both chestnuts with a white blaze, but that's about the long and short of the similarities outside of the name. But I digress. Sort of. In any case, this horse is kind of a wild-card
15. Midnight Interlude (10-1) T: Bob Baffert J: Victor Espinoza
b c by War Chant out of Midnight Kiss (NZ) by Groom Dancer [KY]
record: 4 starts, 2-1-1, total earnings: $649,680
Considering horse's name, and the trainer and all, I kind of expected this to be a son of Baffert's great sprinter Midnight Lute. Oh well. I really like his name, and if I were to pick a winner based solely on the name, I'm pretty sure it'd be him. Still, he's hugely inexperienced. It took him three tries to break his maiden, and then he busted out the Santa Anita Derby in his next race. Also, this horse has zero chance of winning the race. How do I know? Simple: he never raced as a two-year-old. You have to go back a very, very long ways to get a horse who didn't race as a two-year-old who wins this race. How far back? Well, the last horse to win the Derby having never raced at 2 was a horse named Apollo, foaled in 1879, so that's a pretty damned long time ago. However, I will still cheer for this horse, because I love Baffert, I love War Chant, and frankly, I love that name.
16. Animal Kingdom (30-1) T: Graham Motion J: Robby Albarado
ch c by Leroidesanimaux (Brz) out of Dalicia (Ger) by Acatenango (Ger) [KY]
record: 4 starts, 2-2-0, total earnings: $326,900
International pedigree, wow. Even if Leroi (the sire) did race in the U.S. As I recall, Graham Motion is much more effective with his turf runners than his dirt runners. Still, this horse is interesting. I don't particularly like that race record though. Four starts? Bah.
17. Soldat (12-1) T: Kiaran McLaughlin J: Alan Garcia
dkb/br c by War Front out of Le Relais by Coronado's Quest [KY]
record: 8 starts, 3-4-0, total earnings: $584,300
I really don't know what to make of this horse. He's been pretty successful, but I seem to sense a lot of doubts surrounding him. And even though he's been to Churchill before, he's never raced on the dirt. He was last at Churchill for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished second to Pluck. He started this year strong, and fizzled.
18. Uncle Mo (9-2) T: Todd Pletcher J: John Velazquez
b c by Indian Charlie out of Playa Maya by Arch [KY]
record: 5 starts, 4-0-1, total earnings: $1,436,000
Oh boy. This guy. I understand that everyone thinks he's the second coming of... I don't know, Street Sense? Some other phenomenal two-year-old who became a phenomenal three-year-old. I'm not convinced that this horse has all that much quality to him. He beat up a bunch of green two-year-olds in his most prestigious win, and he did so easily, instead of fighting for it. He's had his way in pretty much every race, except the Wood Memorial, where he does have an excuse for flopping home third. That same excuse could take him out of the gates here, too. He had a gastrointestinal infection. And yet they still think he can run in the Derby? Yikes. If the infection was enough to affect his performance in the Wood, I don't know why they think it won't bother him now in the Derby, at a longer distance with much more pressure on him. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this horse scratches out Derby morning. Oh, and one more thing: Uncle Mo, along with his token dumb name, has not got the pedigree for this race, in my book. Indian Charlie is a sire of sprinters and milers. I really don't think having Arch on the underside will balance that out.
19. Nehro (6-1) T: Steve Asmussen J: Corey Nakatani
b c by Mineshaft out of The Administrator by Afleet [KY]
record: 5 starts, 1-2-0, total earnings: $425,140
Here's another horse I don't know anything about. He has one single win to his name, a maiden at Oaklawn (I think?) and a pair of graded stakes second place finishes. But it looks to me like he's a persistent horse, not one to throw in the towel. And based on his PPs, he's got the right running style to win this race, and he's way out in BFE, which Big Brown proved can be won from (even if Big Brown was further out, in post 20, than this one). So I don't really know what to say about this horse. He's bred for the distance, I think (at least, his sire could certainly handle a mile and a quarter with no problem). Everything else is just too up in the air.
20. Watch Me Go (50-1) T: Kathleen O'Connell J: Rafael Bejarano
dkb/br c by West Acre out of Sabbath Song by Deputy Minister [FL]
record: 10 starts, 4-0-1, total earnings: $314,345
I like this horse, for some reason. I probably shouldn't, that pedigree is almost completely foreign to me (despite being 100% domestic). But there's something about this horse that catches my fancy. Those morning line odds, though. Ouch. The only horse on the entire ticket that's at 50-1. Everyone else is 30-1 or lower. Still, I don't think that the odds totally reflect the horse's chances. After all, Rafael Bejarano will be in the irons, and while he's no Bo-rail, he's also no slouch.
1. Archarcharch (10-1) T: Jinks Fires J: Jon Court
dkb/br c by Arch out of Woodman's Dancer by Woodman [KY]
record: 6 starts, 3-1-1, total earnings: $832,744
I have heard this horse's name thrown around a lot, but nothing really sticks to my memory, though I am far, far too amused at that trainer's name. This horse looks to me like a wild card. I know next to nothing about the progeny of Arch, and Woodman as a broodmare sire is, well, mediocre as far as I know. This colt is one big question mark. And considering the cavalry charge that the first quarter mile of the race is, I have a feeling this youngster will end up with a face-full of dirt and will never factor into the race. I could be wrong, but there are so many question marks here that I think 10-1 is generous.
2. Brilliant Speed (30-1) T: Tom Albertrani J: Joel Rosario
dkb/br c by Dynaformer out of Speed Succeeds by Gone West [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-2-2, total earnings: $515,750
With a name like that, I expected a sprinter's pedigree. What the hell is this? That's a turf pedigree all the way around. Mind you, Barbaro (another son of Dynaformer) was a grass horse who took to Churchill's dirt without batting an eyelash. The Dynaformers can definitely run on dirt (especially if it rains -- they love the slop, I swear!) However, I'm impressed with the Dynaformers as a whole. They may not be the fastest horses out there, but they are sturdy and persistent, and they generally make a good showing of themselves. And as far as I know, no son of Dynaformer has come even close to being as successful a sire as he is, so there probably won't be any rush to hurry this guy off to stud unless he wins the Triple Crown. If he flops here, I wouldn't be surprised if Live Oak pulls him, gives him a rest, and then throws him out onto the grass next time.
3. Twice the Appeal (20-1) T: Jeff Bonde J: Calvin Borel
dkb/br c by Successful Appeal out of Double Boarded by Cormorant [KY]
record: 10 starts, 3-2-1, total earnings: $449,920
The only reason this critter isn't 50-1 is his jockey. Bo-rail has won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies, and some history is riding with him this time: if he wins, he'll become the first jockey to win back to back Derbies three years in a row. It's been won twice in a row by five different jockeys (including Borel) but no one has won three in a row. This horse has no quality at all, but as we saw with Mine That Bird (who unfortunately was mediocre at best) you don't have to be the best horse to win the Kentucky Derby. You don't even need to normally be able to win at a mile and a quarter (which, based on that pedigree, I'd say is a little beyond this guy). You just need to have the race fall apart in front of you and have a jockey with enough experience to recognize when that happens and enough guts to take advantage of it. Twice the Appeal has a fighting chance at this, but only because this is the motherfucking Kentucky Derby and he's got the King of Churchill Downs in the irons. Other than that, he's a throwaway. If he wins this race, it'll just further prove that the Kentucky Derby is a crapshoot and a jockey's race.
4. Stay Thirsty (20-1) T: Todd Pletcher J: Ramon Dominguez
dkb/br c by Bernardini out of Marozia by Storm Bird [KY]
record: 6 starts, 2-2-0, total earnings: $300,00
One of the few leading 2yos of 2010 still around to dance the biggest dance of them all. I gotta tip my hat to Bernardini; he's looking like a promising young sire. As I recall, this colt has been collecting minor awards rather than winning big races, but all he needs as a damned good break and he could steal the race. He's bred for the distance, so the mile-and-a-quarter shouldn't bother him a bit. Other than that, I don't really know what to say. He's been in the mix, and I expect he won't be at the back of the field across the wire, but whether or not he wins, I don't really know.
5. Decisive Moment (30-1) T: Juan Arias J: Kerwin Clark
dkb/br c by With Distinction out of Lady Samira by Dehere [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-2-3, total earnings: $527,330
I really don't know anything about this guy. He's a complete mystery to me. I don't even know anything about his pedigree other than he's a grandson of Storm Cat and Dehere. I had to read up on him because he's such a question mark. Frankly, he's got no credentials that say he can win this, but as I keep saying, the Derby isn't about the best horse, it's about having the best luck. It looks to me like he's got a fair number of races under his belt, so he's familiar with what he's supposed to do. And it sounds to me like the owner is just happy to be part of the Derby; if the horse flops home last, it's no huge catastrophe. I don't give this horse much of a chance to win, but I have learned to not say that any one horse doesn't belong in the Derby gates. And frankly, if what I understand about the owner is true, I'd much rather see a horse like this in the gate anyway: the owner is racing because he loves the thrill of the sport, not because he's trying to cash in on a quick horse to send to the breeding shed.
6. Comma to the Top (30-1) T: Peter Miller J: Patrick Valenzuela
b g by Bwana Charlie out of Maggies Storm by Stormy Atlantic [FL]
record: 13 starts, 6-2-0, total earnings: $778,600
The first time I heard this guy's name, I thought it was a mistake. It makes no sense. I wonder if it's referring to the missing apostrophe in the dam's name. Interestingly enough, I remember reading that this horse wasn't going to be entered in this race, and sure enough, there are multiple mentions in articles that say that they want to give the horse a break instead of going to the Derby. I wonder what changed their minds? Well, in any case, he's an interesting horse and as I recall, he's kind of a speed horse (well, being by Bwana Charlie, a son of Indian Charlie, that makes sense) but he's struggled lately. And PVal. PVal won the Derby on Sunday Silence, but this horse is no Sunday Silence. We'll see what happens, I guess. Personally, I think he's got no chance to win, but he could feasibly be in the mix for the minor awards.
7. Pants on Fire (20-1) T: Kelly Breen J: Rosie Napravnik
dkb/br c by Jump Start out of Cabo de Noche by Cape Town [KY]
record: 8 starts, 2-3-1, total earnings: $678,100
A blue-collar pedigree, to be sure, but this horse has some guts. Some of those guts, to be fair, are in the irons. Rosie Napravnik is one of the gutsiest riders out there, I swear. She rides like she doesn't know she's a girl, or maybe more accurately, like she knows she's a girl and she wants to be respected by the guys. She certainly changed my opinion of female jockeys, and I'd love to see her win this just to prove that girls can win the Derby too. As for the horse himself? I... really have no opinion. Do I have to keep saying that this is a game of luck and jockeys? And Rosie Napravnik has got guts in spades, so her biggest failing will be that she's not as experienced in a race like this as Borel, so if it comes down to the two of them, I imagine Borel will get the advantage just because he's got more experience at this particular race. But take nothing away from Rosie -- she is one gutsy, gutsy gal, and I hope she and Pants on Fire show the world that girls can ride too. Oh yeah, and one more thing: my two favorite (and somewhat lucky) numbers are Seven and Seventeen. I always want to cheer for the 7 and 17 horses in the Kentucky Derby. The fact that Rosie Napravnik is on the 7 horse here? Icing on the cake!
8. Dialed In (4-1) T: Nick Zito J: Julien Leparoux
dkb/br c by Mineshaft out of Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat [KY]
record: 4 starts, 3-1-0, total earnings: $879,206
Aww, Zito. I love Nick Zito. Looking at this horse's pedigree, I'm rather floored. He's got champions all over the place in it! Mineshaft and A.P. Indy were both Horse of the Year in their respective days, Storm Cat was a top juvenile racer (though not a champion) and Eliza (dam of Miss Doolittle) was a Champion Two Year Old filly. However, this horse is a complete mystery to me, despite having been all the rage since he burst onto the scene. He's only raced four times. That just doesn't seem to me like enough experience, especially when you consider that Comma to the Top has three times as many races under his belt.
9. Derby Kitten (30-1) T: Mike Maker J: Javier Castellano
b c by Kitten's Joy out of Blush by Menifee [KY]
record: 9 starts, 2-3-1, total earnings: $172,333
Oh lookie. The Ramseys bred a Kitten's Joy colt expressly for the Derby, and he actually made it into the race. Actually, to be fair, I'm impressed. Since only 20 horses can run in this race, and probably a thousand times that many are born each year, for this horse to make it into the race he was apparently bred to race in is quite an achievement. It should also be noted that he raced against some pretty salty horses in his career. Mind you, he almost never beat any of those salty horses, and often was nowhere near them, but they are in his PP lines, so take that for what you will. Also, looking at his PPs, I'm not impressed with how long it took him to break his maiden, but perhaps he was a goof-off who only recently figured out what the hell this racing business is all about. We'll see what happens. He managed to squeak into the gate with the defection of another horse; when you compare his total earnings to everyone else, he just completely pales. One thing I do know for certain, though, is that the distance should be no problem, based on his pedigree. But that's about the only thing I see going for him.
10. Twinspired (30-1) T: Mike Maker J: Mike Smith
gr/r c by Harlan's Holiday out of Historical Drive by El Prado (Ire) [KY]
record: 8 starts, 2-1-1, total earnings: $264,830
To be perfectly honest, I don't even know who the hell this horse is, but as the only gray in the field, he'll stand out.
11. Master of Hounds (30-1) T: Aiden O'Brien J: Garret Gomez
b c by Kingmambo out of Silk and Scarlet (GB) by Sadler's Wells [KY]
record: 7 starts, 1-3-1, total earnings: $460,878
You again? This horse was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year and was soundly wholloped by Pluck, as I recall, and has since spent his time over in Ireland. He only raced once since getting his arse handed to him by Pluck and a host of other colts. I don't understand how they expect a horse based in Ireland to jump the pond and magically win the Kentucky Derby, but then again, this race is all about luck, and whoever Fortune smiles upon will be the one that wins. That's a kick-ass pedigree, by the way. A hell of a grass pedigree. Not so much for dirt, but wow, and he's already proven he can run on dirt (even if he can't necessarily win). Kingmambo is a brilliant stallion, and the late, great Sadler's Wells is a legend.
12. Santiva (30-1) T: Eddie Kenneally J: Shaun Bridgmohan
b c by Giants Causeway out of Slide by Smarten [KY]
record: 6 starts, 1-3-1, total earnings: $257,597
Another name I've heard kicked around for several months, but who apparently has yet to back up all the hype. He has a single win to his name, and that win, ironically, is not in a maiden special weight or even a maiden claiming -- he won a G2 at Churchill as a two-year-old. Nice pedigree, though. Giants Causeway's progeny can run just about any distance, and if I'm not mistaken, Smarten was a speed stallion, so with stamina on the top and speed on the bottom, this horse is bred for any distance. I'm just not convinced he can win this big race. He seems to have a lot of second-itis. It'd be pretty huge for his connections if he runs in the money, though, and that's not exactly out of the question.
13. Mucho Macho Man (12-1) T: Kathy Ritvo J: Rajiv Maragh
b c by Macho Uno out of Ponche de Leona by Ponche [FL]
record: 8 starts, 2-3-2, total earnings: $410,463
Well, there's always the token dumb-name entry. Bleh. Despite all that, this horse is a model of consistency. He's been in the money in seven of his eight lifetime races, and the one time he was out of the money, he was bumped hard in the chute, according to the PPs, and he still managed to come in 4th, with at least four other horses behind him despite being out of the money. I don't expect him to win this race, but he should put in a good show. He would be a good horse to use in exotics, if I were going to bet them, and at the least, a couple of bucks on him to show might turn a nice little profit. Might. Don't really know. He's faced full fields before, but never anything like this.
14. Shackleford (12-1) T: Dale Romans J: Jesus Castenon
ch c by Forestry out of Oatsee by Unbridled [KY]
record: 5 starts, 2-1-0, total earnings: $271,666
Finally! A chestnut! I was starting to wonder if the rules had changed to disallow chestnuts in the race! In any case, I know nothing of his merits, and the only thing I can say about him is that every time I see his name, I keep thinking of Sir Shackleton (who ran against Smarty Jones in the Kentucky Derby, to give you an idea of how long ago this was) but he's not in the least bit related to Sir Shackleton. Go figure. They are both chestnuts with a white blaze, but that's about the long and short of the similarities outside of the name. But I digress. Sort of. In any case, this horse is kind of a wild-card
15. Midnight Interlude (10-1) T: Bob Baffert J: Victor Espinoza
b c by War Chant out of Midnight Kiss (NZ) by Groom Dancer [KY]
record: 4 starts, 2-1-1, total earnings: $649,680
Considering horse's name, and the trainer and all, I kind of expected this to be a son of Baffert's great sprinter Midnight Lute. Oh well. I really like his name, and if I were to pick a winner based solely on the name, I'm pretty sure it'd be him. Still, he's hugely inexperienced. It took him three tries to break his maiden, and then he busted out the Santa Anita Derby in his next race. Also, this horse has zero chance of winning the race. How do I know? Simple: he never raced as a two-year-old. You have to go back a very, very long ways to get a horse who didn't race as a two-year-old who wins this race. How far back? Well, the last horse to win the Derby having never raced at 2 was a horse named Apollo, foaled in 1879, so that's a pretty damned long time ago. However, I will still cheer for this horse, because I love Baffert, I love War Chant, and frankly, I love that name.
16. Animal Kingdom (30-1) T: Graham Motion J: Robby Albarado
ch c by Leroidesanimaux (Brz) out of Dalicia (Ger) by Acatenango (Ger) [KY]
record: 4 starts, 2-2-0, total earnings: $326,900
International pedigree, wow. Even if Leroi (the sire) did race in the U.S. As I recall, Graham Motion is much more effective with his turf runners than his dirt runners. Still, this horse is interesting. I don't particularly like that race record though. Four starts? Bah.
17. Soldat (12-1) T: Kiaran McLaughlin J: Alan Garcia
dkb/br c by War Front out of Le Relais by Coronado's Quest [KY]
record: 8 starts, 3-4-0, total earnings: $584,300
I really don't know what to make of this horse. He's been pretty successful, but I seem to sense a lot of doubts surrounding him. And even though he's been to Churchill before, he's never raced on the dirt. He was last at Churchill for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, where he finished second to Pluck. He started this year strong, and fizzled.
18. Uncle Mo (9-2) T: Todd Pletcher J: John Velazquez
b c by Indian Charlie out of Playa Maya by Arch [KY]
record: 5 starts, 4-0-1, total earnings: $1,436,000
Oh boy. This guy. I understand that everyone thinks he's the second coming of... I don't know, Street Sense? Some other phenomenal two-year-old who became a phenomenal three-year-old. I'm not convinced that this horse has all that much quality to him. He beat up a bunch of green two-year-olds in his most prestigious win, and he did so easily, instead of fighting for it. He's had his way in pretty much every race, except the Wood Memorial, where he does have an excuse for flopping home third. That same excuse could take him out of the gates here, too. He had a gastrointestinal infection. And yet they still think he can run in the Derby? Yikes. If the infection was enough to affect his performance in the Wood, I don't know why they think it won't bother him now in the Derby, at a longer distance with much more pressure on him. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this horse scratches out Derby morning. Oh, and one more thing: Uncle Mo, along with his token dumb name, has not got the pedigree for this race, in my book. Indian Charlie is a sire of sprinters and milers. I really don't think having Arch on the underside will balance that out.
19. Nehro (6-1) T: Steve Asmussen J: Corey Nakatani
b c by Mineshaft out of The Administrator by Afleet [KY]
record: 5 starts, 1-2-0, total earnings: $425,140
Here's another horse I don't know anything about. He has one single win to his name, a maiden at Oaklawn (I think?) and a pair of graded stakes second place finishes. But it looks to me like he's a persistent horse, not one to throw in the towel. And based on his PPs, he's got the right running style to win this race, and he's way out in BFE, which Big Brown proved can be won from (even if Big Brown was further out, in post 20, than this one). So I don't really know what to say about this horse. He's bred for the distance, I think (at least, his sire could certainly handle a mile and a quarter with no problem). Everything else is just too up in the air.
20. Watch Me Go (50-1) T: Kathleen O'Connell J: Rafael Bejarano
dkb/br c by West Acre out of Sabbath Song by Deputy Minister [FL]
record: 10 starts, 4-0-1, total earnings: $314,345
I like this horse, for some reason. I probably shouldn't, that pedigree is almost completely foreign to me (despite being 100% domestic). But there's something about this horse that catches my fancy. Those morning line odds, though. Ouch. The only horse on the entire ticket that's at 50-1. Everyone else is 30-1 or lower. Still, I don't think that the odds totally reflect the horse's chances. After all, Rafael Bejarano will be in the irons, and while he's no Bo-rail, he's also no slouch.