Obligatory pre-Derby post (predictions and what-not)
Well, it's that time of year! I just got a gander at the post positions for the 131st Kentucky Derby, and I'm kinda.... meh... about it.
My analysis of the field, in order of post positions:
1: Sort It Out Well, well. Baffert snuck in, didn't he? Let's hope his horse doesn't scratch like last year XD. Has Brice Blanc ever ridden in the Derby before? All in all, I'd say his morning line of 50-1 is appropriate. 2: Andromeda's Hero Where'd he come from? Seriously, who the hell is this horse? I see he's part of Nick Zito's mega-stable, and he's got Bejarano in the irons, which is no bad thing, Bejarano knows his way around Churchill, but where the HELL did this horse come from? I don't recall hearing anything about him before. I mean, I've heard his name and all, and he's got a flashy pedigree (by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Storm Bird mare) but... meh. 50-1 morning line is appropriate. I should add that I like his name, it's catchy ("Andromeda's hero" being Perseus, who according to "Clash of the Titans" tamed Pegasus, though standard Greek mythology states that Perseus caused Pegasus to be born by killing Medusa... but whatever ;)) 3: Sun King Zito Power Stable Colt #2. Okay, I love this colt. Seriously love him. But he ain't gonna do it. He chokes when the going gets tough. He can't fight to save himself. His older half-sister Ocean Drive was a hard-knocking turf mare, but Sun King is all dirt, as far as I can tell. He's a good barometer for Charismatic. Spotty at best. I love Charismatic, but he's not a good sire, which saddens me. 4: Noble Causeway Zito Power Stable Colt #3. XD. Christ, Zito, you KNOW you're not going to win it this year - you're throwing too many horses into it! You've got literally a quarter of it in your barn! And if Noble Causeway DOES win this one, Giants Causeway's stud fee will go through the roof, what with Footstepsinthesand winning the Two Thousand Guineas and Maids Causeway coming in second. Holy macanoly. But I don't think this colt has a snowball's chance in hell. *shrug* His best assets are his trainer and his jock. Stevens is a damned good jock, but I don't think it'll help. 5: Coin Silver Nice name on him, and it doesn't refer to sire or dam! (He's NOT by Silver Charm or Silver Deputy!) He turned in a big effort two weeks ago in the Coolmore Lexington, and last year the Coolmore Lexington winner trudged home dead last. Pletcher's a good trainer, very good, but this colt is in way over his head, if you ask me. 6: High Limit UGH. FRANKEL. Need I say more? Go AWAY, High Limit, I can't stand your trainer. And he's got too few starts. This will be his fifth start. He's going to crap out a brick when the doors open! Also, Maria's Mon already has a Derby winner to his credit. ;) He doesn't need another yet. 7: Flower Alley This colt reminds me of Speightstown! o_O;; it's gotta be the silks. I like Speightstown, but... anyway, I don't think he's got much of a chance. He's been outclassed by Afleet Alex before, and I think he too will totally wig when he sees the crunch. I don't think he's been in a big, high-profile race before. Plus, Distorted Humor already has a Derby winner to his credits. He too doesn't need another yet ;) 8: Greater Good Okay, I love this hard-knocking little devil. He's always written off, but he keeps coming back and making an honest name for himself. Plus, he's practically a gelding, so he won't be going to the stud barns if he wins big. I like horses with no stud future - it means they'll keep running as long as they're sound. Yeah, I'll take a $2WPS ticket on Greater Good, I think he can do something. Price ain't bad either (20-1 morning line). 9: Greeley's Galaxy I'm on the fence about this guy. He's a beautiful animal, and it'd be nice to see Hughes get some money back on his investment of $200,000 just to get into the post position draw. But Greeley's Galaxy will most likely shit himself in surprise when the gates open, cuz he's got NO experience. He never raced as a 2yo (Apollo Factor coming into play here) and he's got, what, four starts to his name? One stakes? Meh. He's in over his head. Hughes would be better bypassing Churchill and sending him to Pimlico for the Preakness. I mean, the field will be much smaller and the colt will have a better chance with two extra weeks to prep. But what the hell do I know? ;) 10: Giacomo Where the fuck did this creature come from? He ain't done SHIT. He's winless this year, and he's only won a single race - a maiden special weight. He *IS* graded-placed, but that's all he's got going for him. 50-1 is conservative odds, if you ask me. 11: High Fly Zito Power Stable Colt #4. Florida Derby winner, and a gutsy runner, but I think that he'll find the combination of atmosphere, added furlong and bodily crush in the wall of horses to be too much. Besides, who *IS* Atticus (the sire) anyway? I've heard his name before, but not much about him. High Fly's biggest assets are his trainer (Zito rules the year!) and his jockey (Bailey rules racing, if not the Derby). 12: Afleet Alex And now we're cooking with gas! I've liked this colt for a long time, and he just keeps getting better. I'm really glad too that they kept his original jockey. Definitely one of my favorites. He's been consistent, and gallant in defeat (even though he had a nasty lung infection, he ran well until he "hit the brick wall" in the stretch and stopped badly, and then he turned around and blew them away in the Arkansas) 13: Spanish Chestnut Awww! Ish teh cute! I love his face! He's in way over his head too, but he'll keep the pace honest, and if the Derby gods are really watching over the race, he'll wire the field, just cuz everyone's writing him off as a rabbit for Bandini. 14: Wilko My #1 choice. I want to see him bust the jinx of the Breeders' Cup Juvy and the Kentucky Derby. A mile and a quarter shouldn't be any trouble for him, he's got a solid pedigree, and he's shown us he likes a good route of ground. He comes on like a train at the end - he MOWED Afleet Alex down in the BC Juvy. Plus, I like Corey Nakatani, so I'm all about Wilko right now, but I do like Alex... still, Wilko is my pick. 15: Bandini Yeah. You're gonna need all the help from rabbits that you can get, Bandini, because your real threat is a closer like you. Bandini has a great pedigree and a shitty name. What the FUCK kind of name is Bandini for a son of Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Dixieland Band mare?! However, I should note that the combination of Todd Pletcher - Johnny V is a potent one... we'll see what happens. 16: Bellamy Road Uh huh. He blows away the field in the Wood Memorial. Whoopty doo. When was the last time the winner of the Wood Memorial won the Derby? Well, I think it was Fusaichi Pegasus, but FuPeg was a freak XD. Bellamy Road just turned in a freakishly fast race and peaked already. I think he'll tank completely on Derby day. I could be wrong, but I don't think so. 17: Don't Get Mad ....okay, the last time a horse won the Derby Trial and came back a week later and won the Derby was when? Too long ago to remember, that's when. I know Citation did it, as did Whirlaway. But seriously... that was more than fifty years ago! 18: Closing Argument Not much to say about this one - he's been a pretty consistent bridesmaid. Could pull a Funny Cide and lope off with the win, but I'm not sure. I'd have to see his PPs to say more. I do like his name, but other than that.... meh. 19: Going Wild Well, Lukas is still sorta in the game, but without Consolidator, he looks pretty damn goofy. Seriously, what has this horse done? I recall reading his name as an "also-ran" in charts. Is that how he racked up his graded earnings? By racing often in graded events and collecting the doorprizes for fourth and lower? 20: Buzzards Bay OMG I love his face! Almost as much as Spanish Chestnut. But GRAH! What a name! And he's waaaaay out there in Siberia (post 20). Too bad, I think he could be a good horse, just cuz he hasn't turned in any peak performances yet, but he's still won a G1. A sleeper pick, to be sure. And there ya have it!
My analysis of the field, in order of post positions:
1: Sort It Out Well, well. Baffert snuck in, didn't he? Let's hope his horse doesn't scratch like last year XD. Has Brice Blanc ever ridden in the Derby before? All in all, I'd say his morning line of 50-1 is appropriate. 2: Andromeda's Hero Where'd he come from? Seriously, who the hell is this horse? I see he's part of Nick Zito's mega-stable, and he's got Bejarano in the irons, which is no bad thing, Bejarano knows his way around Churchill, but where the HELL did this horse come from? I don't recall hearing anything about him before. I mean, I've heard his name and all, and he's got a flashy pedigree (by Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Storm Bird mare) but... meh. 50-1 morning line is appropriate. I should add that I like his name, it's catchy ("Andromeda's hero" being Perseus, who according to "Clash of the Titans" tamed Pegasus, though standard Greek mythology states that Perseus caused Pegasus to be born by killing Medusa... but whatever ;)) 3: Sun King Zito Power Stable Colt #2. Okay, I love this colt. Seriously love him. But he ain't gonna do it. He chokes when the going gets tough. He can't fight to save himself. His older half-sister Ocean Drive was a hard-knocking turf mare, but Sun King is all dirt, as far as I can tell. He's a good barometer for Charismatic. Spotty at best. I love Charismatic, but he's not a good sire, which saddens me. 4: Noble Causeway Zito Power Stable Colt #3. XD. Christ, Zito, you KNOW you're not going to win it this year - you're throwing too many horses into it! You've got literally a quarter of it in your barn! And if Noble Causeway DOES win this one, Giants Causeway's stud fee will go through the roof, what with Footstepsinthesand winning the Two Thousand Guineas and Maids Causeway coming in second. Holy macanoly. But I don't think this colt has a snowball's chance in hell. *shrug* His best assets are his trainer and his jock. Stevens is a damned good jock, but I don't think it'll help. 5: Coin Silver Nice name on him, and it doesn't refer to sire or dam! (He's NOT by Silver Charm or Silver Deputy!) He turned in a big effort two weeks ago in the Coolmore Lexington, and last year the Coolmore Lexington winner trudged home dead last. Pletcher's a good trainer, very good, but this colt is in way over his head, if you ask me. 6: High Limit UGH. FRANKEL. Need I say more? Go AWAY, High Limit, I can't stand your trainer. And he's got too few starts. This will be his fifth start. He's going to crap out a brick when the doors open! Also, Maria's Mon already has a Derby winner to his credit. ;) He doesn't need another yet. 7: Flower Alley This colt reminds me of Speightstown! o_O;; it's gotta be the silks. I like Speightstown, but... anyway, I don't think he's got much of a chance. He's been outclassed by Afleet Alex before, and I think he too will totally wig when he sees the crunch. I don't think he's been in a big, high-profile race before. Plus, Distorted Humor already has a Derby winner to his credits. He too doesn't need another yet ;) 8: Greater Good Okay, I love this hard-knocking little devil. He's always written off, but he keeps coming back and making an honest name for himself. Plus, he's practically a gelding, so he won't be going to the stud barns if he wins big. I like horses with no stud future - it means they'll keep running as long as they're sound. Yeah, I'll take a $2WPS ticket on Greater Good, I think he can do something. Price ain't bad either (20-1 morning line). 9: Greeley's Galaxy I'm on the fence about this guy. He's a beautiful animal, and it'd be nice to see Hughes get some money back on his investment of $200,000 just to get into the post position draw. But Greeley's Galaxy will most likely shit himself in surprise when the gates open, cuz he's got NO experience. He never raced as a 2yo (Apollo Factor coming into play here) and he's got, what, four starts to his name? One stakes? Meh. He's in over his head. Hughes would be better bypassing Churchill and sending him to Pimlico for the Preakness. I mean, the field will be much smaller and the colt will have a better chance with two extra weeks to prep. But what the hell do I know? ;) 10: Giacomo Where the fuck did this creature come from? He ain't done SHIT. He's winless this year, and he's only won a single race - a maiden special weight. He *IS* graded-placed, but that's all he's got going for him. 50-1 is conservative odds, if you ask me. 11: High Fly Zito Power Stable Colt #4. Florida Derby winner, and a gutsy runner, but I think that he'll find the combination of atmosphere, added furlong and bodily crush in the wall of horses to be too much. Besides, who *IS* Atticus (the sire) anyway? I've heard his name before, but not much about him. High Fly's biggest assets are his trainer (Zito rules the year!) and his jockey (Bailey rules racing, if not the Derby). 12: Afleet Alex And now we're cooking with gas! I've liked this colt for a long time, and he just keeps getting better. I'm really glad too that they kept his original jockey. Definitely one of my favorites. He's been consistent, and gallant in defeat (even though he had a nasty lung infection, he ran well until he "hit the brick wall" in the stretch and stopped badly, and then he turned around and blew them away in the Arkansas) 13: Spanish Chestnut Awww! Ish teh cute! I love his face! He's in way over his head too, but he'll keep the pace honest, and if the Derby gods are really watching over the race, he'll wire the field, just cuz everyone's writing him off as a rabbit for Bandini. 14: Wilko My #1 choice. I want to see him bust the jinx of the Breeders' Cup Juvy and the Kentucky Derby. A mile and a quarter shouldn't be any trouble for him, he's got a solid pedigree, and he's shown us he likes a good route of ground. He comes on like a train at the end - he MOWED Afleet Alex down in the BC Juvy. Plus, I like Corey Nakatani, so I'm all about Wilko right now, but I do like Alex... still, Wilko is my pick. 15: Bandini Yeah. You're gonna need all the help from rabbits that you can get, Bandini, because your real threat is a closer like you. Bandini has a great pedigree and a shitty name. What the FUCK kind of name is Bandini for a son of Fusaichi Pegasus out of a Dixieland Band mare?! However, I should note that the combination of Todd Pletcher - Johnny V is a potent one... we'll see what happens. 16: Bellamy Road Uh huh. He blows away the field in the Wood Memorial. Whoopty doo. When was the last time the winner of the Wood Memorial won the Derby? Well, I think it was Fusaichi Pegasus, but FuPeg was a freak XD. Bellamy Road just turned in a freakishly fast race and peaked already. I think he'll tank completely on Derby day. I could be wrong, but I don't think so. 17: Don't Get Mad ....okay, the last time a horse won the Derby Trial and came back a week later and won the Derby was when? Too long ago to remember, that's when. I know Citation did it, as did Whirlaway. But seriously... that was more than fifty years ago! 18: Closing Argument Not much to say about this one - he's been a pretty consistent bridesmaid. Could pull a Funny Cide and lope off with the win, but I'm not sure. I'd have to see his PPs to say more. I do like his name, but other than that.... meh. 19: Going Wild Well, Lukas is still sorta in the game, but without Consolidator, he looks pretty damn goofy. Seriously, what has this horse done? I recall reading his name as an "also-ran" in charts. Is that how he racked up his graded earnings? By racing often in graded events and collecting the doorprizes for fourth and lower? 20: Buzzards Bay OMG I love his face! Almost as much as Spanish Chestnut. But GRAH! What a name! And he's waaaaay out there in Siberia (post 20). Too bad, I think he could be a good horse, just cuz he hasn't turned in any peak performances yet, but he's still won a G1. A sleeper pick, to be sure. And there ya have it!