It was confirmed today - my dad has
myasthenia gravis, which is the same thing Michael has. They're both Class I - located in the eyes only. It's possible that if they go off their meds that it'll spread across the body, but properly treated, they should only show signs in their eyes. My dad's been months from initial onset to diagnosis and
(
Read more... )
How many relatives do you have? The calculation is:
1 - (99980 / 100000) ^ N, where N = number of relatives. (The caret is raised to the Nth power.)
In decimal, 20/100000 = .0002. If you have ten relatives, then:
1 - (99980 / 100000) ^ 10 = .0019982
Another problem. What are the odds that if you pick any two people at random, they both have it?
(20 / 100000) ^ 2 = .00000004, aka four out of a hundred million. But that's for picking two very specific people.
I'll do the math for any two out of N relatives later.
Reply
To the best of my understanding, while it is possible for a child to have congenital MG, it can be from a healthy parent. Some infants of mothers who have MG may have "transient neonatal myasthenia", but it typically resolves fairly quickly. MG in general does not have any direct inheritance.
Reply
(The comment has been removed)
As for the disease - my dad's at an age where people acquire all sorts of diseases. As diseases go, this one's not too bad, all things considered (you know, other than the "it can kill you" part), certainly a better deal than *everything else* we could come up with, and we've got the plus of having a family member who is super-familiar with the ins and outs of it, including the "Oh, I'm a special snowflake, I don't actually need to pay attention to that precaution/doctor order/really good idea" followed shortly by "Hm, I guess I should pay attention to all that stuff after all" routine. So hopefully my dad can learn more quickly from both the good examples and the bad examples :)
Reply
1 - (99980 / 100000) ^ 12 = .002397361760
Basically, we're calculating the probability that none of the other relatives will also have the disease, and then subtracting it from 1. So .24% chance, or just a little better than 1 in 400.
I punted on the other calculation. Wander over here and plug in some numbers:
N = 13
k = 2
P = .0002
q = .9998
The probability of exactly 2 of 13 is 0.0000031131428598832475, or about one in 321218.
The probability of 2 or more of 13 is 0.0000031154274301448126, or about one in 320983.
Reply
Reply
Leave a comment