Spot the flaw? What elephant is thriving on two blades of grass, here?
What elephant is thriving on two blades of grass, here? What well-known factor is ignored here? And in every big establishment source I've seen talk about this.
China’s demography is a disaster. About 2015, the seemingly boundless labor pool will begin to shrink. One reason is rapid aging, which presages that China will become old before it becomes rich. By 2050, China will have lost one-third of its working-age population. Meanwhile, the U.S. will bestride the earth as the youngest industrialized nation after India.
Also in this decade, the number of China’s dependents will start to soar. The U.S. curve will rise only slowly, due to high fertility and immigration, two classic sources of rejuvenation. By midcentury, one Chinese worker will have to support two dependents, a ratio worse than anywhere in the West. If ample labor is the food of growth, China is looking at starvation.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-12/u-s-is-no-1-china-is-so-yesterday
Sigh. Two dependents won't need two workers producing X amount of goods each; you only need one worker producing 2X amount.
China's One-Child policy has saved a lot of resources to invest in new tech, which the world is happily buying.
Hint: "Whoever makes two ears of corn, or two blades of grass to grow where only one grew before, deserves better of mankind, and does more essential service to his country than the whole race of politicians put together…" -- attributed to Jonathan Swift
China’s demography is a disaster. About 2015, the seemingly boundless labor pool will begin to shrink. One reason is rapid aging, which presages that China will become old before it becomes rich. By 2050, China will have lost one-third of its working-age population. Meanwhile, the U.S. will bestride the earth as the youngest industrialized nation after India.
Also in this decade, the number of China’s dependents will start to soar. The U.S. curve will rise only slowly, due to high fertility and immigration, two classic sources of rejuvenation. By midcentury, one Chinese worker will have to support two dependents, a ratio worse than anywhere in the West. If ample labor is the food of growth, China is looking at starvation.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-05-12/u-s-is-no-1-china-is-so-yesterday
Sigh. Two dependents won't need two workers producing X amount of goods each; you only need one worker producing 2X amount.
China's One-Child policy has saved a lot of resources to invest in new tech, which the world is happily buying.
Hint: "Whoever makes two ears of corn, or two blades of grass to grow where only one grew before, deserves better of mankind, and does more essential service to his country than the whole race of politicians put together…" -- attributed to Jonathan Swift