Belarus Trapped Into Eurasian Integration
Originally published at Belarus Digest. Please leave any comments there.
Ambassadors of Poland, Lithuania and Sweden have returned to Minsk and their colleagues are on the way to the Belarusian capital. It seems that the EU-Belarus relations broke a deadlock, but they remain difficult and the EU has not so many carrots to offer its restive authoritarian neighbour. Unlike countries like Moldova and Armenia, Belarus is increasingly integrating into the Eurasian Economic Union without any serious interest in European integration.
The reason for this is oil and financial dependence on Russia. If the EU wants to establish democracy in Belarus, it should offer a comprehensive package of assistance in reforms. But even if Belarus makes European choice, it will take at least 3-4 years to reach the same level of relations as exists with Georgia or Ukraine. And there are plenty of obstacles: from WTO membership to an obligation to the need to secure permission from the yet to be established Eurasian Commission.
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