I haven't seen much discussion of this (though out on the Web, it may exist). Imagine power outages, transportation snarls, and disaster relief leading to low turnout in cities, or to problems with election logistics.
I have wondered whether, if big cities on the coast have more trouble than inland rural areas, turnout would be relatively higher in the rural areas. This might make some blue states less blue-- probably not enough to switch their electoral votes, though.
Already candidates have canceled events in potentially-affected states. Romney's campaign buses have been loaded with disaster-relief supplies in order to help after the storm hits. Uncertainty has lent fresh drama to the presidential race, while reducing it to the second-biggest story in the U.S.'s news.
Having lived through some natural disasters in rural areas (blizzards in Indiana, ice storms in Michigan, floods and snowstorms in PA, Issac in LA), I expect the cities to be back up to speed long before the rural regions
( ... )
Northeastern cities tend to bounce back from big storms really quickly. Obviously if the New York subway floods it could be out for several weeks, but New York's the furthest thing imaginable from a presidential swing state.
In Massachusetts and NH, it's the more Republican-leaning exurban areas that end up with the power out for weeks after a major storm (like Irene/Lee and the freak October snowstorm last year). But that's mostly power going out to individual homes in residential areas with the power lines above ground. Public places usually get the power restored before everyone's house does.
The winds in greater Boston should be weakening from here on in, and it appears to me that, so far, we in the northern reaches have gotten off more lightly than with those storms. But I probably have to wait for more news to be sure.
Silver seems mostly concerned with the direct effect on final-week national polling. If it's taking blue states out of national polls, it ought to have a specific pattern: we should see it as a burst of national Ro-mentum largely unreflected in aggregates of state polls.
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I have wondered whether, if big cities on the coast have more trouble than inland rural areas, turnout would be relatively higher in the rural areas. This might make some blue states less blue-- probably not enough to switch their electoral votes, though.
Already candidates have canceled events in potentially-affected states. Romney's campaign buses have been loaded with disaster-relief supplies in order to help after the storm hits. Uncertainty has lent fresh drama to the presidential race, while reducing it to the second-biggest story in the U.S.'s news.
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In Massachusetts and NH, it's the more Republican-leaning exurban areas that end up with the power out for weeks after a major storm (like Irene/Lee and the freak October snowstorm last year). But that's mostly power going out to individual homes in residential areas with the power lines above ground. Public places usually get the power restored before everyone's house does.
The winds in greater Boston should be weakening from here on in, and it appears to me that, so far, we in the northern reaches have gotten off more lightly than with those storms. But I probably have to wait for more news to be sure.
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