Would we call this a singularity?
Over on her professional blog, eiriene gives some thought to the future should Borders collapse.
Now, people who have been in communication with me in writer/publishing circles on the internet for the past decade+ are familiar with my (a) lack of patience with wild-eyed naifs who think that self-publishing will bring down the New York oligarchy, and (b) scorn at people who predicted an ebook revolution ten years ago.
I never said the ebook revolution wouldn't happen; I just said it wouldn't happen in 1999. I believe it is rather likely to happen now. We have the critical components: ebook readers that greatly resemble paper, and failing brick-and-mortar stores. We need just two more components, both of which should be easily achieved, assuming some entrepreneur has the balls to do it in a poor economy:
1. Ebook readers that access the internet in general, so you can read news and RSS feeds and so on.
2. Ebook readers priced below $100, and durable. I would like it to fold up into a back pocket, too, but one step at a time. I would settle for it opening like a book and having text on spread pages.
So, imagine the ebook revolution happens right when the brick-and-mortar stores start closing (which should drive an ebook revolution). Imagine further that the NY oligarchy, in the current collapse, is forced to slash their lists.
Sort of forces writers into self-publishing in the wild new frontier, eh?
(Note to the wild-eyed naifs: you are still wrong. The old publishing hegemony that has reigned for more than 100 years has to collapse first. You are bringing down nothing. You are only rushing into the power vacuum.)
But of course the next thing that happens is the readers start whining that they can't find anything good, because the airwaves are clogged with the insane ramblings and incoherent drivel of millions of fools who think "banging fingers on a keyboard" = "writing."
Which leads to a new type of publisher: the epublisher.[1]
Now, before you start howling that there are already epublishers, ask yourself how seriously they are taken right now. In this little scenario I'm brewing, they gain true legitimacy. (Let's face it: the only epublishers who make any money right now are publishing erotica, or acting largely as vanity publishers with little editorial direction.)
The blogosphere has already begun to make a difference to the reviewing world. Most readers would rather trust a dependable blogger than a paid reviewer. There's a sense that paid reviewers have pressures on them to review particular books, or to have some tact. Can you imagine if the NYTimes published not merely a panning review, but a bluntly snarky one?
One thing about bloggers, they are unfettered by decorum. They can use the word "sucks." They can also use the word "awesome." And more to the point, they will review the books that more people like to read. The literati have their standards, but hoi polloi outnumber them. (And, as it happens, are actually a better indicator of what will go on to be a classic in fifty or a hundred years. It's harder to manipulate people who have no motive to agree that the emperor is fully dressed.)
Let's give some predictions and a timetable:
Less than 3 years: a really good ebook reader as I've defined above comes on the market. Also, Borders collapses.
within five years: the New York dinosaurs shrink their lists, possibly sell off or decommission bits of themselves and get to a more manageable size.
within seven years: Respectable epublishers rise from the morass of self-publishing, and are taken seriously as sources for books with proper editing. They start paying advances up front.
within ten years: the NY publishers go over to the epublishing model, printing paperbacks of the very biggest bestsellers for the mass market racks at airports, and limited print run hardcovers for collectors. B&N gets bought out by Starbucks, and becomes a chain of very large coffeehouses that also sell shiny magazines and large art books.
within fifteen years: uber-high-quality printing experiences a resurgence for limited edition printings of classics, for gifts. (Such outfits actually exist right now, but they are largely unnoticed at this time.)
[1] Where "epublisher" is defined as "doesn't produce print books, except maybe POD." All the NY publishers produce ebooks, but they're print publishers who put out ebooks as a secondary revenue stream. True epublishers do the opposite.