Why things look good for Obama right now.
I read an article about why Obama is ahead in the polls. It wasn't a good article, so y'all get this post.
1) The Economy
People vote more on the direction the economy is going, than where it is in absolute terms. If times are bad, but getting better, they support the incumbent. Likewise, if things are going great, but not quite as great as last year, they'll vote against him. Maybe they shouldn't, but it's what they do.
Things are getting better. Not much, but they're getting better. If people follow the usual pattern, that should work in Obama's favor, even if unemployment is still high.
2) GWB was a very, very bad president.
2a) Folks blame the current sorry state of the economy at least partly on him, and not Obama.
2b) The words "Republican president" still make people twitch. If you're going to run for President as a Republican, you have to show why you're not going to be another Bush. Romney hasn't.
3) No one really likes Mitt Romney.
The Republican base doesn't trust him. Those are the people who do all the volunteering, who drive folks to the polls. And telling the country that, if you don't pay any federal income tax, you aren't taking responsibility for your own life can't have helped.
There are a lot of Democrats who feel disappointed by Obama, but not to the level of "hold your nose and vote for him anyway you see on the right.
1) The Economy
People vote more on the direction the economy is going, than where it is in absolute terms. If times are bad, but getting better, they support the incumbent. Likewise, if things are going great, but not quite as great as last year, they'll vote against him. Maybe they shouldn't, but it's what they do.
Things are getting better. Not much, but they're getting better. If people follow the usual pattern, that should work in Obama's favor, even if unemployment is still high.
2) GWB was a very, very bad president.
2a) Folks blame the current sorry state of the economy at least partly on him, and not Obama.
2b) The words "Republican president" still make people twitch. If you're going to run for President as a Republican, you have to show why you're not going to be another Bush. Romney hasn't.
3) No one really likes Mitt Romney.
The Republican base doesn't trust him. Those are the people who do all the volunteering, who drive folks to the polls. And telling the country that, if you don't pay any federal income tax, you aren't taking responsibility for your own life can't have helped.
There are a lot of Democrats who feel disappointed by Obama, but not to the level of "hold your nose and vote for him anyway you see on the right.