(no subject)
There hasn't really been much to report about this campaign. I saw Erik Pastoor out campaigning on Sandy Bay road the other day. Very brave man he is, running for The Liberal Party in Denison, a seat that he's about as likely to win as The Greens. It is especially brave considering that this Meningitis victim would not have gotten the preselection if he still had fingers, and I'm sure he knows this.
I recieved an information pamphlet in the mail today. It explained things like how senate votes are counted, which I found very interesting.
In polling news, Christine Milne looks set to win a senate seat here in Tassie for The Greens. The Greens also look set to win senate seats in NSW, WA, and Victoria. South Australia and Queensland are too close to call. In every State, each major party will win 2 senate seats each. That leaves 2 left over, and they can go to anyone. Typically, one will go to a minor party, and the other will go to one of the major parties. Because of this structure, it is very rare for anyone to have much of a majority in the senate. In fact, it has been a while since either major party managed to control a majority in the senate. The Liberals have a chance to get a majority at this election though. The Greens also have a chance to go most of the way towards holding the balance of power in the Senate. It seem very likely that they will have it by 2007.
The Democrats are finnished. Labor are giving their senate preferences to The GReens for the first time ever. The Greens look set to become the main third party over the next two elections (only half the senate is put up for re-election each 3 years). Pauline Hanson is said to have enough votes in Queensland to win a senate seat, although a lot of people seem to think the poll on which this is based was a bit shoddy.
As far as the Lower House goes, current polling suggests that The Government will maintain a majority, although probably slightly reduced from last election. Latham has a long uphill struggle ahead of him to win this election. Australia rarely votes against incumbents. That small group of swing voters in marginal seats who's minds will not be made up until election day will generally vote overwhelmingly for the incumbent government.
I would not be confident of seeing Labor win, until their polling numbers were up around 56% - 60% on a two party preffered basis. Tony Abbot is the only senior minister in real trouble, with Labor and The Greens polling a combined 52% of the primary vote in his electorate.
I recieved an information pamphlet in the mail today. It explained things like how senate votes are counted, which I found very interesting.
In polling news, Christine Milne looks set to win a senate seat here in Tassie for The Greens. The Greens also look set to win senate seats in NSW, WA, and Victoria. South Australia and Queensland are too close to call. In every State, each major party will win 2 senate seats each. That leaves 2 left over, and they can go to anyone. Typically, one will go to a minor party, and the other will go to one of the major parties. Because of this structure, it is very rare for anyone to have much of a majority in the senate. In fact, it has been a while since either major party managed to control a majority in the senate. The Liberals have a chance to get a majority at this election though. The Greens also have a chance to go most of the way towards holding the balance of power in the Senate. It seem very likely that they will have it by 2007.
The Democrats are finnished. Labor are giving their senate preferences to The GReens for the first time ever. The Greens look set to become the main third party over the next two elections (only half the senate is put up for re-election each 3 years). Pauline Hanson is said to have enough votes in Queensland to win a senate seat, although a lot of people seem to think the poll on which this is based was a bit shoddy.
As far as the Lower House goes, current polling suggests that The Government will maintain a majority, although probably slightly reduced from last election. Latham has a long uphill struggle ahead of him to win this election. Australia rarely votes against incumbents. That small group of swing voters in marginal seats who's minds will not be made up until election day will generally vote overwhelmingly for the incumbent government.
I would not be confident of seeing Labor win, until their polling numbers were up around 56% - 60% on a two party preffered basis. Tony Abbot is the only senior minister in real trouble, with Labor and The Greens polling a combined 52% of the primary vote in his electorate.