EMERGENCY ROCKETS ARE TERRIBLE GRAMMAR BE DAMNED POSTING
The Rockets are officially terrible. It's obvious that the Yao Ming era has come to end in the most mediocre fashion possible. Even healthy, he is no longer the (sometimes) dominant force in the paint that we could rely on both ends of the floor. Not to mention that he's already missed a good chunk of the young season. Daryl Morey has the unenviable job of building around a one-of-a-kind talent in Yao that had limitless potential that will unfortunately go unfulfilled. The good news is that the Rockets have a huge amount of flexibility next year.
The bad news is that no one knows if the NBA is going to even be playing this time next year because of the lockout. Why is this a big deal for the Rockets? Firstly, it looks as if we are bound to be a lottery team in the West, which is strong as ever. Given the lockout, many young talents may opt out of the NBA for an additional year of college ball to develop their skill sets. Next year's draft may be one of the thinnest in years.
The other major issue with the lockout is that no one knows how far financial flexibility will take them. If the owners have their way, salary caps will be hard (i.e. none of this trickery that goes into building a contender now where the "cap" is routinely exceeded) and it will be very difficult to build a star-studded team the way current player contracts are going, the major reason most stars are trying to re-up this year under the old collective bargaining rules. Anyway, the free agent pickings may be extremely slim next year.
None of this is good news.
The Rockets, as they stand now, are a team in limbo. They built their team from an inside-out philosophy centered around Yao Ming, and now they are stuck with his giant expiring contract that can't be utilized to its fullest extent ($17.7 million) because no team is willing to commit to having a roster at the current luxury tax limit without knowing where the collective bargaining talks will end up. In addition to another $14 million or so in expirings with Battier and Jeffries, the Rockets have a lot of flexibility but few realistic options to rope in a superstar and maintaing enough flexibility to build a real contender of a team around him. If anyone can do it, its Morey. But who is realistically available? Carmelo is as temperamental a star as T-Mac as ever was, minus the health problems. CP3 is leading the Hornets to higher heights than ever, so I doubt he leaves. Tim Duncan will never leave the Spurs. And most available "superstar" players either have a lot of contractual baggage or any of a litany of other caveats.
If any team has a model of success to replicate, its the Oklahoma Thunder with Sam Presti. They hit gold with Westbrook and Durant and built their young team together with excellent draft picks and masterful cap management. Morey has had similar levels of success if you account for the franchise's misplaced trust in Yao as the cornerstone. The problem is that like Yao, KD is a once-in-a-decade talent and it took OKC a few years in the gutter to be the team they are now. The Rockets have drafted well for the most part, especially considering their draft position. But they are a superstar and a reliable big man short of making the playoffs, much less being contenders at this point.
In addition (and this is Adelman's fault as much as anyone's), the focus of defense from the JVG era has been totally lost. We are near dead last in the league, and while some of this is personnel issues and the lack of a big man, a lot of this may be from the more lackadaisical approach to defense that we saw in the Adelman-coached Sacramento Kings. This has improved somewhat over the past few games but we can't be taken seriously when allowing over 100 ppg.
The Rockets aren't nearly as much of a disaster as say, Minnesota or Philly, and a few smart moves and this franchise will be headed in the right direction again. But this is going to require a gut check on the part of Les Anderson - its time to start over, use our draft picks and cap space to start building around what we have. I'll rank our players by their value to our team and their long term potential as Rockets.
Keepers - self explanatory
Kevin Martin - at his salary ($12 million) Martin is a bargain as an elite scorer. You won't find many scorers at that salary that can explode for 30 any given game. However, there are a few major problems with K-Mart. First, he relies on getting to the line to maintain scoring efficiency. At the end of games, he is all to content to shoot jumpers and rarely makes it to the line. He is also a defensive liability but is smart enough of a player to learn to be a solid team defender, provided that he has some defensive help from his backcourt partner (i.e. Lowry). He is a great second fiddle but is not the kind of player to lead a team to any real playoff success. Still, he is a rare scoring talent and at that salary, he is still a great find.
Kyle Lowry - Unfortunately this is partly due to the fact that we overpaid him this offseason. Still, at $6 million a year, his contract isn't terrible, but with his current average production he is tough to move. He is a tough defensive point guard that overcomes his lack of height with speed and strength. He is an elite defender and plays extremely hard. But like Rajon Rondo or Tyreke Evans, defenders are all too content to let him shoot jumpers rather than let him make plays. And he cannot create plays at anywhere near the level of those two. For him to become truly successful, he will need to develop a jumper and become a more versatile scorer. Still, he is a hard worker and for his size, a good rebounding guard as well. He is young and he has shown improvement so I think he can realistically become a valuable starter.
Luis Scola - There is no player on our roster who is more consistent or who plays harder. He is one of the most underrated power forwards in the league right now. He doesn't need the ball to score and he has an incredible nose for rebounds and hustling down the loose ball. He is a tenacious defender and can play at this level for several more years.
Chuck Hayes - OK, he is as offensively stultifying as any player in the league, but at his bargain salary of $2 million you cannot find a more elite position defender. He has become a better passer and is more aware of positioning and like Scola, is a tenacious rebounder and hustle player. Hopefully we can keep him out of any package deals that we make before the deadline. I sort of have a man crush on Chuck Hayes, sorry.
Bubble Players - These players have the potential to be solid rotation players
Chase Budinger - he has been pretty much as advertised. Solid shooter, crafty scorer, defensive liability. Still, he is a great spark off the bench and has been an offensive dynamo when no one else has been productive. He has an attractive salary (less than $1 million) and should be a valuable rotation player if the rest of the pieces fall together. Still, he can sweeten the deal for any potential trades that may happen and isn't a vital player at this point.
Jordan Hill - he has yet to live up to his potential; at best he is a Joakim Noah level talent. At worst, he is more of a Ronny Turiaf. He has the strength and athleticism to be an elite defender and rebounder, and at times has shown flashes of a post game, but is still incredibly raw. A lot of teams would take a pass at him given his potential, and if the right deal comes along we could live without him.
Courtney Lee - he has been decent as a backup to Kevin Martin, but our needs right now are less at SG than at PG given Budinger's emergence as a scorer. What Lee offers that Budinger can't is the ability to be a position defender and still be a scorer. While not as versatile a scorer as Budinger, he is also not a defensive liability. We may see all we are going to see from Lee as far as future growth, but he is a talented rotation player and since Morey gave up Ariza to get him, he likely will be on our roster for the foreseeable future (which is fine by me)
Brad Miller - we need his size and veteran presence, but big fella can barely move. No team will take his current salary ($5 million a year for the next 3 years), but as a backup and locker room presence he still has some value. No team would take him in a trade currently, and his utility as a backup center was somewhat contingent on Yao being able to play at least 24 minutes a game (which is hard for Yao to do while sitting on the bench). We're stuck with the big fella, for better or worse.
Expendable - This list may be tough to swallow, but its unfortunately a reality
Yao Ming - starting with the big fella. There is no guarantee that he will ever approach the heights of his production a few years ago. His conditioning is still suspect and he isn't quite at game shape yet, but he is clearly missing a step from his prime. And he should still be in his prime but like any number of centers in his height range (Rik Smits comes immediately to mind), his shelf life is much shorter than the average big. His value as a marketing piece or expiring contract is much higher than his value as a player at his current salary. At a veteran's minimum or even a mid-level exception he is a justifiable risk but he is no longer a marquee player. Never forget :(
Aaron Brooks - Brooks has been a surprise the past few years, but this season has been educational. Now that he is a known commodity at PG, teams have been able to contain him more effectively. He was out of shape coming into the season and has been creating drama over the lack of an extension offered to him, especially considering the contract that Lowry and other PGs (Mike Conley specifically) have been offered. The problem is that he is tiny and a defensive liability, and together with Martin he makes for one of the most porous backcourts in the NBA. He is enticing to teams as a scorer and shooter and would likely be part of any major upcoming trade. Lowry has achieved a modicum of success in Brooks' absence and this unfortunately solidifies the theory that Brooks is an expendable resource.
Shane Battier - Battier has finally lost a step defensively and like many other defensive specialists (Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen), his lack of a good offensive skill set is a huge liability. His ability to hit the corner 3 has been declining on an annual basis. He may still be of value to a bubble contender but his value to a lottery team is minimal, other than as an expiring.
Jared Jeffries - Same as above, except Jeffries is of limited value to anybody other than as an expiring contract. He is a mediocre player with limited utility that was overpaid in hilarious fashion by the Knicks after posting mediocre numbers in Washington. Worst case scenario is he and his bloated contract walk this offseason, best case is we can turn his expiring into a useful player.
Patrick Patterson - he is a young guy who may develop into a decent forward but we don't really need him and he has been unimpressive outside of a couple of summer league games. He may develop into a decent rotation player and the Rockets will be invested in him given he was a lottery pick. He does have a lot of potential offensively; he is a good jump shooter and an incredibly athletic player. He will need to learn how to create off the ball. He needs to play tougher to be a decent interior defender and will really need to work on his rebounding. He may see some playing time later this year (especially given how fragile our team historically has been), so maybe he will come around in Landry-like fashion later this year. I guess a good big to compare his upside to would be David West, and if that's the case he is worth holding on to over Jordan Hill.
Ishmeal Smith - he has been a surprise and has fit in well, given the lack of depth at PG, but he's a non-essential player
Jermaine Taylor - hasn't managed to make much of an impact and the Rockets have plenty of wing players. If Battier gets traded he may see some more time but currently it's hard to see where he fits in.
Anyway, the good news is that we have about $31 million in expiring contracts, a $6 million trade exception from the Ariza trade, a few extra draft picks (courtesy of NY), and a couple of interesting international players (especially Sergio Llul). Hopefully Llul can actually join our team next year, as we do need more depth at PG. Any trade we make will likely involve one of the expirings (Battier, I suspect), Brooks, and a combination of Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson, and a draft pick. Its an attractive package but I'm not sure which team would spring for that and what kind of value we can get in return. It will be interesting to see who shakes out as available closer to February.
As usual, we are left to trust in Morey's judgment, and he is as painfully aware of the coming sea change as any Rockets fan. It will be an interesting February come trade deadline time.
The bad news is that no one knows if the NBA is going to even be playing this time next year because of the lockout. Why is this a big deal for the Rockets? Firstly, it looks as if we are bound to be a lottery team in the West, which is strong as ever. Given the lockout, many young talents may opt out of the NBA for an additional year of college ball to develop their skill sets. Next year's draft may be one of the thinnest in years.
The other major issue with the lockout is that no one knows how far financial flexibility will take them. If the owners have their way, salary caps will be hard (i.e. none of this trickery that goes into building a contender now where the "cap" is routinely exceeded) and it will be very difficult to build a star-studded team the way current player contracts are going, the major reason most stars are trying to re-up this year under the old collective bargaining rules. Anyway, the free agent pickings may be extremely slim next year.
None of this is good news.
The Rockets, as they stand now, are a team in limbo. They built their team from an inside-out philosophy centered around Yao Ming, and now they are stuck with his giant expiring contract that can't be utilized to its fullest extent ($17.7 million) because no team is willing to commit to having a roster at the current luxury tax limit without knowing where the collective bargaining talks will end up. In addition to another $14 million or so in expirings with Battier and Jeffries, the Rockets have a lot of flexibility but few realistic options to rope in a superstar and maintaing enough flexibility to build a real contender of a team around him. If anyone can do it, its Morey. But who is realistically available? Carmelo is as temperamental a star as T-Mac as ever was, minus the health problems. CP3 is leading the Hornets to higher heights than ever, so I doubt he leaves. Tim Duncan will never leave the Spurs. And most available "superstar" players either have a lot of contractual baggage or any of a litany of other caveats.
If any team has a model of success to replicate, its the Oklahoma Thunder with Sam Presti. They hit gold with Westbrook and Durant and built their young team together with excellent draft picks and masterful cap management. Morey has had similar levels of success if you account for the franchise's misplaced trust in Yao as the cornerstone. The problem is that like Yao, KD is a once-in-a-decade talent and it took OKC a few years in the gutter to be the team they are now. The Rockets have drafted well for the most part, especially considering their draft position. But they are a superstar and a reliable big man short of making the playoffs, much less being contenders at this point.
In addition (and this is Adelman's fault as much as anyone's), the focus of defense from the JVG era has been totally lost. We are near dead last in the league, and while some of this is personnel issues and the lack of a big man, a lot of this may be from the more lackadaisical approach to defense that we saw in the Adelman-coached Sacramento Kings. This has improved somewhat over the past few games but we can't be taken seriously when allowing over 100 ppg.
The Rockets aren't nearly as much of a disaster as say, Minnesota or Philly, and a few smart moves and this franchise will be headed in the right direction again. But this is going to require a gut check on the part of Les Anderson - its time to start over, use our draft picks and cap space to start building around what we have. I'll rank our players by their value to our team and their long term potential as Rockets.
Keepers - self explanatory
Kevin Martin - at his salary ($12 million) Martin is a bargain as an elite scorer. You won't find many scorers at that salary that can explode for 30 any given game. However, there are a few major problems with K-Mart. First, he relies on getting to the line to maintain scoring efficiency. At the end of games, he is all to content to shoot jumpers and rarely makes it to the line. He is also a defensive liability but is smart enough of a player to learn to be a solid team defender, provided that he has some defensive help from his backcourt partner (i.e. Lowry). He is a great second fiddle but is not the kind of player to lead a team to any real playoff success. Still, he is a rare scoring talent and at that salary, he is still a great find.
Kyle Lowry - Unfortunately this is partly due to the fact that we overpaid him this offseason. Still, at $6 million a year, his contract isn't terrible, but with his current average production he is tough to move. He is a tough defensive point guard that overcomes his lack of height with speed and strength. He is an elite defender and plays extremely hard. But like Rajon Rondo or Tyreke Evans, defenders are all too content to let him shoot jumpers rather than let him make plays. And he cannot create plays at anywhere near the level of those two. For him to become truly successful, he will need to develop a jumper and become a more versatile scorer. Still, he is a hard worker and for his size, a good rebounding guard as well. He is young and he has shown improvement so I think he can realistically become a valuable starter.
Luis Scola - There is no player on our roster who is more consistent or who plays harder. He is one of the most underrated power forwards in the league right now. He doesn't need the ball to score and he has an incredible nose for rebounds and hustling down the loose ball. He is a tenacious defender and can play at this level for several more years.
Chuck Hayes - OK, he is as offensively stultifying as any player in the league, but at his bargain salary of $2 million you cannot find a more elite position defender. He has become a better passer and is more aware of positioning and like Scola, is a tenacious rebounder and hustle player. Hopefully we can keep him out of any package deals that we make before the deadline. I sort of have a man crush on Chuck Hayes, sorry.
Bubble Players - These players have the potential to be solid rotation players
Chase Budinger - he has been pretty much as advertised. Solid shooter, crafty scorer, defensive liability. Still, he is a great spark off the bench and has been an offensive dynamo when no one else has been productive. He has an attractive salary (less than $1 million) and should be a valuable rotation player if the rest of the pieces fall together. Still, he can sweeten the deal for any potential trades that may happen and isn't a vital player at this point.
Jordan Hill - he has yet to live up to his potential; at best he is a Joakim Noah level talent. At worst, he is more of a Ronny Turiaf. He has the strength and athleticism to be an elite defender and rebounder, and at times has shown flashes of a post game, but is still incredibly raw. A lot of teams would take a pass at him given his potential, and if the right deal comes along we could live without him.
Courtney Lee - he has been decent as a backup to Kevin Martin, but our needs right now are less at SG than at PG given Budinger's emergence as a scorer. What Lee offers that Budinger can't is the ability to be a position defender and still be a scorer. While not as versatile a scorer as Budinger, he is also not a defensive liability. We may see all we are going to see from Lee as far as future growth, but he is a talented rotation player and since Morey gave up Ariza to get him, he likely will be on our roster for the foreseeable future (which is fine by me)
Brad Miller - we need his size and veteran presence, but big fella can barely move. No team will take his current salary ($5 million a year for the next 3 years), but as a backup and locker room presence he still has some value. No team would take him in a trade currently, and his utility as a backup center was somewhat contingent on Yao being able to play at least 24 minutes a game (which is hard for Yao to do while sitting on the bench). We're stuck with the big fella, for better or worse.
Expendable - This list may be tough to swallow, but its unfortunately a reality
Yao Ming - starting with the big fella. There is no guarantee that he will ever approach the heights of his production a few years ago. His conditioning is still suspect and he isn't quite at game shape yet, but he is clearly missing a step from his prime. And he should still be in his prime but like any number of centers in his height range (Rik Smits comes immediately to mind), his shelf life is much shorter than the average big. His value as a marketing piece or expiring contract is much higher than his value as a player at his current salary. At a veteran's minimum or even a mid-level exception he is a justifiable risk but he is no longer a marquee player. Never forget :(
Aaron Brooks - Brooks has been a surprise the past few years, but this season has been educational. Now that he is a known commodity at PG, teams have been able to contain him more effectively. He was out of shape coming into the season and has been creating drama over the lack of an extension offered to him, especially considering the contract that Lowry and other PGs (Mike Conley specifically) have been offered. The problem is that he is tiny and a defensive liability, and together with Martin he makes for one of the most porous backcourts in the NBA. He is enticing to teams as a scorer and shooter and would likely be part of any major upcoming trade. Lowry has achieved a modicum of success in Brooks' absence and this unfortunately solidifies the theory that Brooks is an expendable resource.
Shane Battier - Battier has finally lost a step defensively and like many other defensive specialists (Raja Bell, Bruce Bowen), his lack of a good offensive skill set is a huge liability. His ability to hit the corner 3 has been declining on an annual basis. He may still be of value to a bubble contender but his value to a lottery team is minimal, other than as an expiring.
Jared Jeffries - Same as above, except Jeffries is of limited value to anybody other than as an expiring contract. He is a mediocre player with limited utility that was overpaid in hilarious fashion by the Knicks after posting mediocre numbers in Washington. Worst case scenario is he and his bloated contract walk this offseason, best case is we can turn his expiring into a useful player.
Patrick Patterson - he is a young guy who may develop into a decent forward but we don't really need him and he has been unimpressive outside of a couple of summer league games. He may develop into a decent rotation player and the Rockets will be invested in him given he was a lottery pick. He does have a lot of potential offensively; he is a good jump shooter and an incredibly athletic player. He will need to learn how to create off the ball. He needs to play tougher to be a decent interior defender and will really need to work on his rebounding. He may see some playing time later this year (especially given how fragile our team historically has been), so maybe he will come around in Landry-like fashion later this year. I guess a good big to compare his upside to would be David West, and if that's the case he is worth holding on to over Jordan Hill.
Ishmeal Smith - he has been a surprise and has fit in well, given the lack of depth at PG, but he's a non-essential player
Jermaine Taylor - hasn't managed to make much of an impact and the Rockets have plenty of wing players. If Battier gets traded he may see some more time but currently it's hard to see where he fits in.
Anyway, the good news is that we have about $31 million in expiring contracts, a $6 million trade exception from the Ariza trade, a few extra draft picks (courtesy of NY), and a couple of interesting international players (especially Sergio Llul). Hopefully Llul can actually join our team next year, as we do need more depth at PG. Any trade we make will likely involve one of the expirings (Battier, I suspect), Brooks, and a combination of Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson, and a draft pick. Its an attractive package but I'm not sure which team would spring for that and what kind of value we can get in return. It will be interesting to see who shakes out as available closer to February.
As usual, we are left to trust in Morey's judgment, and he is as painfully aware of the coming sea change as any Rockets fan. It will be an interesting February come trade deadline time.