Game 1 analysis - lets keep our cool Rockets fans!
Quick run down on my playoff predictions and what actually went down:
Lakers-Jazz
My prediction: 4-1 Lakers
Actual: 4-1 Lakers
Think I called it pretty well, went down as expected.
Nuggets-Hornets
My prediction: 4-1 Nuggets
Actual: 4-1 Nuggets
Again, not much surprise here
Spurs-Mavs
My prediction: 4-3 Spurs
Actual: 4-1 Mavs
Was very wrong here. Was surrpised by two things, one: how much Tony Parker would be the focal point of the team and would eventually tire out as the series went on and two: how big Josh Howard would step up for the Mavs. Terry was no surprise, and Dirk played OK, but Howard stepped up his game and the young guns off their bench ran circles around the aging Spurs.
Rockets-Blazers
My prediction: 4-3 Rockets
Actual: 4-2 Rockets
Was surprised by two things - 1st, how ready the Rockets were in game 1, and 2nd, their amazing resolve to pull out games in the clutch. They let a couple of 4th quarter leads slip but I am so proud of our gritty performance against an unconscious Brandon Roy.
Cavs-Pistons
My prediction: 4-0 Cavs
Actual: 4-0 Cavs
No surprise. This is the end for the Pistons as we know them.
Celtics-Bulls
My prediction: 4-2 Celtics
Actual: 4-3 Celtics
This was a series for the ages. I don't care what the pundits say, this has to be one of the 5 greatest playoff series ever, with each of the first 6 games an "ESPN Classic." Game 7 was a let down, but wow. Props to the Bulls, who have a bright future with Deng coming in, Rose stepping up to superstardom, and (hopefully if they're smart) 7 million to play around with when Gordon leaves.
Magic vs Sixers
My prediction: 4-0 Magic
Actual: 4-2 Magic
Was stunned by Iggy's solid performance and the Sixers resolve despite being the vastly overmatched team. I think it speaks more to the Magic's inexperience and lack of toughness rather than the Sixers' talent. Go ahead and put Iggy up there with Artest and Battier as elite wing defenders. After this series, there can be no doubt.
Hawks - Heat
My prediction: 4-3 Hawks
Actual: 4-3 Hawks
Went down as planned: Wade would carry his team to a few victories, but the depth and D of the Hawks would prevail. For a 7 game series, this was pretty damn boring.
OK, on to game 1 of Rockets-Lakers. Again, I was so impressed by the resolve of the Rockets, buckling down every time the Lakers made a run. Yao played very smart, passing out of the appropriate double teams and owning Gasol and Bynum when played 1 on 1. Brooks surprised them with some speedy cuts to the hoops setting up his own layups and assisting others. Battier played remarkable defense that won't show up on the stat sheet (Kobe shot just 35% when Battier was guarding him, and that's padded by a late game flurry). Artest played a phenomenally balanced game and passed when appropriate. Lowry played tough defense, Chuck Hayes came up HUGE against the much bigger Gasol and Bynum. And we had our own Rocky moment when Yao left with a sore knee (I went into the fetal position for about 2 minutes) and came back to score 8 points in the clutch. What a gritty performance. Look at this stat sheet I stole from ESPN showing Kobe's scoring with various defenders on him:
Shane Battier 8-for-22 17 points
Ron Artest 3-for-5 6 points
Chuck Hayes 1-for-1 2 points
Yao Ming 1-for-1 2 points
Brent Barry 0-for-1 0 points
Uncontested 1-for-1 2 points
This proves how good Battier is as a wing defender (better than Artest!?) We should continue to put Artest on Odom, who withers in the face of tough competition.
Before I get too excited, this much is a certainty.
The Lakers are going to come out big in Game 2.
Kobe won't stay down for long and we have to continue to fight through screens and disrupt the post passing that is so vital to the Lakers' offense. Even if Kobe gets his points, we have to make him a jump shooter and keep him out of the line. Yao needs to stay big and make Gasol a jump shooter and keep Bynum out of the paint - Bynum actually had a good game. And even though the Lakers missed a lot of open 3's, so did we. Battier missed a ton of wing 3's that are usually a high percentage shot for him. I think that stat adds up. As to the points left at the FT line... if Kobe doesn't get there, the rest of the Lakers are not a good FT shooting team. That speaks to the amazing defense on the wing the Rockets played.
And that will have to continue in game 2. Von Wafer will have to take smarter shots and be a scoring punch off the bench because defensively he is a shadow of Artest. Artest has matured so much and he will continue to have to be our team's emotional leader, just as Battier is our anchor in the locker room. We had too many TO in the 4th quarter that let the Lakers stay in the game. That can't happen. The Lakers will capitalize on mistakes. We need to take smarter shots and not let the Lakers' D force up shots because our shot clock is running out. And that being said, we can't be too unselfish and make too many passes (especially you, Battier) because we did pass up a couple of open shots that turned into TO's because of the extra pass. There is a lot of room for improvement if we are going to win Game 2 or have a shot at the series. But regardless of what happens, I know this:
I am proud of these Rockets.
Its hard not to be. This is a team that has stepped up to superior talent, looked them in the eye, and then suffocated them with their amazing team defense. This is as unselfish a group of role players as you will find in the league. And we have done this without our supposed superstar. To be a bonafide championship team now, we will need that late game closer. Yao won't always be that man. However, T-Mac has rarely been that man. Brings up an interesting question - what do we do with the 20 million we are saddled with? Teams will be reluctant to take a chance on him. That being said, we have to take into account the miles Yao has on him from years of playing on the Chinese national team. He does have a ticking clock and his age is deceiving in that sense. Trading T-Mac, we would certainly get some good role players but would almost certainly be saddled with a bad contract. But something like an AI for Billups trade? Where we trade T-Mac to a team that wants to rebuild and get a superstar that wants a run for the title? That would be phenomenal. Vince Carter wouldn't be that person. But what about the Pistons? A little Sheed and Tayshaun action giving us a backup for Yao and a 6th man in Prince or Battier that would continue our suffocating D while resting our starters? If the Pistons want to rebuild, I doubt they trade Prince, but its a possibility. But realistically speaking, most teams don't have the quality player we are looking for or are trying to shed cap for the mythical summer of 2010. In that sense, it may be more prudent to wait it out and let T-Mac's contract drop off. Regardless of what happens, this is a roster Daryl Morey can be proud of. On paper, this is a lottery team, but that speaks to our team chemistry and our team defense and the job Adelman has done with this rag-tag group. And regardless of what happens to T-Mac, I am proud of these guys for what they've done this year. I believe!
Lakers-Jazz
My prediction: 4-1 Lakers
Actual: 4-1 Lakers
Think I called it pretty well, went down as expected.
Nuggets-Hornets
My prediction: 4-1 Nuggets
Actual: 4-1 Nuggets
Again, not much surprise here
Spurs-Mavs
My prediction: 4-3 Spurs
Actual: 4-1 Mavs
Was very wrong here. Was surrpised by two things, one: how much Tony Parker would be the focal point of the team and would eventually tire out as the series went on and two: how big Josh Howard would step up for the Mavs. Terry was no surprise, and Dirk played OK, but Howard stepped up his game and the young guns off their bench ran circles around the aging Spurs.
Rockets-Blazers
My prediction: 4-3 Rockets
Actual: 4-2 Rockets
Was surprised by two things - 1st, how ready the Rockets were in game 1, and 2nd, their amazing resolve to pull out games in the clutch. They let a couple of 4th quarter leads slip but I am so proud of our gritty performance against an unconscious Brandon Roy.
Cavs-Pistons
My prediction: 4-0 Cavs
Actual: 4-0 Cavs
No surprise. This is the end for the Pistons as we know them.
Celtics-Bulls
My prediction: 4-2 Celtics
Actual: 4-3 Celtics
This was a series for the ages. I don't care what the pundits say, this has to be one of the 5 greatest playoff series ever, with each of the first 6 games an "ESPN Classic." Game 7 was a let down, but wow. Props to the Bulls, who have a bright future with Deng coming in, Rose stepping up to superstardom, and (hopefully if they're smart) 7 million to play around with when Gordon leaves.
Magic vs Sixers
My prediction: 4-0 Magic
Actual: 4-2 Magic
Was stunned by Iggy's solid performance and the Sixers resolve despite being the vastly overmatched team. I think it speaks more to the Magic's inexperience and lack of toughness rather than the Sixers' talent. Go ahead and put Iggy up there with Artest and Battier as elite wing defenders. After this series, there can be no doubt.
Hawks - Heat
My prediction: 4-3 Hawks
Actual: 4-3 Hawks
Went down as planned: Wade would carry his team to a few victories, but the depth and D of the Hawks would prevail. For a 7 game series, this was pretty damn boring.
OK, on to game 1 of Rockets-Lakers. Again, I was so impressed by the resolve of the Rockets, buckling down every time the Lakers made a run. Yao played very smart, passing out of the appropriate double teams and owning Gasol and Bynum when played 1 on 1. Brooks surprised them with some speedy cuts to the hoops setting up his own layups and assisting others. Battier played remarkable defense that won't show up on the stat sheet (Kobe shot just 35% when Battier was guarding him, and that's padded by a late game flurry). Artest played a phenomenally balanced game and passed when appropriate. Lowry played tough defense, Chuck Hayes came up HUGE against the much bigger Gasol and Bynum. And we had our own Rocky moment when Yao left with a sore knee (I went into the fetal position for about 2 minutes) and came back to score 8 points in the clutch. What a gritty performance. Look at this stat sheet I stole from ESPN showing Kobe's scoring with various defenders on him:
Shane Battier 8-for-22 17 points
Ron Artest 3-for-5 6 points
Chuck Hayes 1-for-1 2 points
Yao Ming 1-for-1 2 points
Brent Barry 0-for-1 0 points
Uncontested 1-for-1 2 points
This proves how good Battier is as a wing defender (better than Artest!?) We should continue to put Artest on Odom, who withers in the face of tough competition.
Before I get too excited, this much is a certainty.
The Lakers are going to come out big in Game 2.
Kobe won't stay down for long and we have to continue to fight through screens and disrupt the post passing that is so vital to the Lakers' offense. Even if Kobe gets his points, we have to make him a jump shooter and keep him out of the line. Yao needs to stay big and make Gasol a jump shooter and keep Bynum out of the paint - Bynum actually had a good game. And even though the Lakers missed a lot of open 3's, so did we. Battier missed a ton of wing 3's that are usually a high percentage shot for him. I think that stat adds up. As to the points left at the FT line... if Kobe doesn't get there, the rest of the Lakers are not a good FT shooting team. That speaks to the amazing defense on the wing the Rockets played.
And that will have to continue in game 2. Von Wafer will have to take smarter shots and be a scoring punch off the bench because defensively he is a shadow of Artest. Artest has matured so much and he will continue to have to be our team's emotional leader, just as Battier is our anchor in the locker room. We had too many TO in the 4th quarter that let the Lakers stay in the game. That can't happen. The Lakers will capitalize on mistakes. We need to take smarter shots and not let the Lakers' D force up shots because our shot clock is running out. And that being said, we can't be too unselfish and make too many passes (especially you, Battier) because we did pass up a couple of open shots that turned into TO's because of the extra pass. There is a lot of room for improvement if we are going to win Game 2 or have a shot at the series. But regardless of what happens, I know this:
I am proud of these Rockets.
Its hard not to be. This is a team that has stepped up to superior talent, looked them in the eye, and then suffocated them with their amazing team defense. This is as unselfish a group of role players as you will find in the league. And we have done this without our supposed superstar. To be a bonafide championship team now, we will need that late game closer. Yao won't always be that man. However, T-Mac has rarely been that man. Brings up an interesting question - what do we do with the 20 million we are saddled with? Teams will be reluctant to take a chance on him. That being said, we have to take into account the miles Yao has on him from years of playing on the Chinese national team. He does have a ticking clock and his age is deceiving in that sense. Trading T-Mac, we would certainly get some good role players but would almost certainly be saddled with a bad contract. But something like an AI for Billups trade? Where we trade T-Mac to a team that wants to rebuild and get a superstar that wants a run for the title? That would be phenomenal. Vince Carter wouldn't be that person. But what about the Pistons? A little Sheed and Tayshaun action giving us a backup for Yao and a 6th man in Prince or Battier that would continue our suffocating D while resting our starters? If the Pistons want to rebuild, I doubt they trade Prince, but its a possibility. But realistically speaking, most teams don't have the quality player we are looking for or are trying to shed cap for the mythical summer of 2010. In that sense, it may be more prudent to wait it out and let T-Mac's contract drop off. Regardless of what happens, this is a roster Daryl Morey can be proud of. On paper, this is a lottery team, but that speaks to our team chemistry and our team defense and the job Adelman has done with this rag-tag group. And regardless of what happens to T-Mac, I am proud of these guys for what they've done this year. I believe!