Statistics

Apr 03, 2020 15:31

About 3 weeks ago, Austria and the UK had roughly the same number of confirmed cases of coronavirus. A few days later, Austria moved into very strict lockdown, while Boris Johnson blithely adopted Dominic Cummings' ideas about herd immunity and protecting the economy, went around shaking hands with everyone, and caught covid-19 himself. A bit less ( Read more... )

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bluemeanybeany April 3 2020, 14:09:52 UTC
Although Austria population is 8.8 million. Whereas the United Kingdom's is 66.44 million.

So data wise even if on one day both countries has the same number of people with coronavirus cases, there's an argument that in terms of RATE per population the lockdown was necessary in Austria before the UK.

Sweden and Austria are roughly similar countries population wise. The United Kingdom probably needs comparing to it's bigger counterparts of France, Spain, Italy and Germany.

Also Vienna's population is 1.8 million. Which isn't the same problem London, with it's 9 million is going to have. A more suitable comparison would be New York.

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bluemeanybeany April 3 2020, 14:19:45 UTC
It's not actually the infection rate which is throwing up peculiarities in Europe.

It's the death rate. Italy has 10%, Spain 7%, Netherlands, France and UK 5% and Germany and Austria have 0.7%

It isn't transmissions where there is a difference. And Germany did social distancing much later comparatively than Italy and Spain.

So looking at the data it isn't necessarily explained by the lock downs or when people went into lockdowns.

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bluemeanybeany April 3 2020, 14:26:43 UTC
I did read a theory that in Europe it's sociological.

From the research done in Iceland the overwhelming carriers are the 18-34 year olds i.e the Millienals. A group which includes me. It's not necessarily the children, it's the Millienals.

And in Italy and Spain those countries are more likely to have multigenerational households. The "perfect storm" is lots of Millienals going home and interacting with Grandparents. Because 80% of transmissions appear to be in the home.

Whereas areas where Millienals live in separate houses and towns from their older relatives they aren't passing it to their older relatives.

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sartorias April 3 2020, 14:46:08 UTC
UK also has more highly impacted cities, doesn't it? Anyway, I hope everyone's curves flattens soon.

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