Looking Out My Review Mirror
The western world, chiefly the United States, cannot afford to maintain our provincial understanding of the Middle East, especially the Arabian Peninsula and hope to maintain our current standard of living. Despite all our technology, our gizmos, gadgets and media we are quickly reaching the zenith of our culture and if we don’t wake up to reality the descent on the other side will be at breakneck speed.
This is the sort of alarmist and conspiratorial thinking that we are prone to dismiss as another in the long line of Y2K panics or just downright ignore because, after all, people have been predicting the end of civilization since the start of civilization and we are still here. True enough!
However, civilizations do rise and fall and will continue to do so as long as there continues to be people on this planet. The Roman Empire split in half and then finally collapsed and in modern times we have seen the end of the British Empire, Ottoman Empire and the collapse of the Soviet Union. What makes us here in the United States think we are immune to such viscitudes?
The United States is still a young country in terms of world civilization and if we are honest with ourselves we will admit that our democratic republic is still a rather fragile experiment that is constantly at threat of being disrupted by both internal and external pressures. The Soviet experiment didn’t even last 100 years. While I am not comparing Soviet Marxism with United States democracy and free enterprise system we are still utilizing a bureaucracy and regardless of what form a government takes, a burocreacy is still a burocreacy. They are slow to change and stubborn. In a democratic republic it gets even worse as lobbyists and special interest groups maneuver to forward their agendas often at the expense of much needed reform.
But this is not a piece on the vagrancies of our form of government. Rather we need to agree that the Middle East is important to our standard of living. Oil is the industrialized world’s lifeblood and without it things will cease to operate smoothly. Even if we were to get the lead out of our asses and start ramping up development of alternative fuels and technologies we most likely would not get these online quickly enough to replace our dependence on oil. Some such as author James Howard Kunstler prophesy that even with fully developed alternative fuel energy we will not be able to operate at the same capacity that we are now with oil. Oil is everything in terms of our economy, our technology and our way of life.
As we enter our 5th year of our unpopular and costly occupation of Iraq there is a tendency fueled by the media to view the United States as the purveyor of all greed, discontent and evil in the world. Yes, there is plenty of culpability to lie at our feet but this kind of thinking will not fix our problems at home or abroad and will only serve to hasten the end of our culture.
Truthfully the United States has treated the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia as our bitch. But the average citizen is as responsible for our past and present foreign policies as any president or congress. The oil must continue to flow into our country and the people we have elected into office understand this even as they decry President Bush’s hopeless and futile occupation of Iraq and war on terror. We need oil to maintain our way of life and unless you and I, the average Joe American, is willing to make crucial changes in our way of life and our consumption things will continue as they are until the system bogs down as the cost of extracting the oil becomes increasingly more expensive and challenging.
While the United States is certainly a part of the problem we need to understand that Middle East is also a huge part of the problem and we did not create many of the millennia old hatreds that are often at the foundation.
But as I said at the beginning we cannot afford to be provincial in our understanding of this area. The Middle East is a complex socioeconomic and geopolitical equation that has many factors built into it. Pick one, oil, religious ideology, economics, social equality, foreign involvement or Israel and you are likely to be correct…at least in part.
Let’s start with economics. Economics is the fundamental force behind all human civilization and interaction. It informs everything that follows…period. If we want to simplify it economics basically involves how we as individuals and collectively get what we need and, more importantly, what we want. Our wants often outweigh our needs as we see in our own country where people will choose to live on a precipice of credit in order to have “things.” The United States is the epitome of this behavior as many feel entitled to the latest and greatest toys rather than seeing them as something to be earned or done without. Delayed gratification in the United States is a thing of the past although at present consumption we may be forced unwillingly back into that mode.
Oil is economics. It allows us to get the things that we want. In fact it makes them available. In his book The Long Emergency, James Howard Kunstler explains how the development of the industrialized world is based on the availability of cheap, abundant fossil fuels. He even hypothesizes that without oil what we have today may not have been possible. Furthering this observation is the increasing consumption of oil by nations such as China, India and other so-called third world nations as they struggle to come into the modern world.
The key to understanding the present emerging oil crisis is the Middle East, who by even the most conservative estimates contains 25% of the world’s remaining oil reserves. The United States reached peak production in the early 1970’s and Britain’s North Sea fields are quickly depleting. Venezuela will soon be a non-event as they too have reached peak production and their aging industry will soon crumble under the incompetence of Hugo Chavez. Furthermore many experts in the oil industry and independent researchers believe that major discovery peaked in 1964. In other words we pretty much know were all the oil is. The majority of what’s left is in the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia, and in difficult regions such as the arctic. The cost of getting at oil in such places will be too great not only economically but environmentally as well.
It always amazes me to hear people decry the Iraq occupation as being “all about the oil” and yet maintain a woeful and willful ignorance of the matter as they drive off in their cars. Their cynicism is out of place because their consumption hasn’t changed. They are the problem.
The Middle East is oil. From an economic standpoint that is the only real thing this arid and inhospitable region of the world has to offer the world at large. Once this commodity is no longer viable they inhabitants of that region may very well fall back into the near medieval existence that existed at the end of World War I.
The Middle East is always been a fascinating subject for me. Arab culture was at it’s zenith during Europe’s Middle Ages. It is no accident that we use Arabic numerals and letters. The Arab people made great advancements in mathematics and medical science among others during this time. Medical texts were smuggled from Arabia into Europe because the oppressive church made advancement in learning and science difficult. The modern world owes a debt of gratitude to the ancient people of Arabia.
They were the epitome of the enlightened culture which is hard for us to believe given the nature of its current repressive culture. At the end of World War I the Ottoman Empire had collapsed and Europe was beginning to dismantle its old colonial systems leaving the people of the Middle East self-governing for the first time in centuries.
In the centuries following the European Middle Ages the cultures of the Arabian Peninsula had degraded and were stubbornly anti-modern and nomadic. The people we now refer to as Palestinians were little more than nomadic squatters in an area that become a British help protectorate following the 1st Word War and ended with the installation of Israel in 1948.
The oil industry of the Arabian Peninsula especially that of the al-Saud’s is the result of Western development. Who knows how long it would have taken them to develop this industry if at all given their strong anti-modern sentiments which are very prevalent today.
The people of that region were in no place to develop this for themselves. They also were not ready for the swift changes wrought by modernity that came with western investments. This created a huge culture shock that, in some ways may have given rise to the modern brand of militant Islam that is a threat to our way of life.
The truth of the matter is that United States involvement has created a stream of wealth in the Middle East that has been misused by the region’s leadership. This is in no way the fault of the United States. In fact I would submit that the radical Islamists use the United States and Israel as a way to divert attention from their own internal problems. If we or if Israel were removed from the equation the strife and dissent would be turned inward with violent and revolutionary zeal further destabilizing a region that has never had a lasting peace lasting more than a few years.
The Saudi Princes are a prime example of how wealth created by oil revenues has been squandered. Saudi Arabia is not as stable as we here in the west care to believe. They are ripe for revolution and indeed, as I am writing this, there are many internal pressures that have been building up for years that threaten the al-Sauds.
The revenues from oil have lined the pockets of a very privileged few while the mass majority of the regions population struggle for subsistence. Oddly the Saudi’s have been investing in the vehicle of their own destruction for years while the elite have been living in mega luxury behind the walls of their compounds or jet setting across the globe to exotic locations such as Monte Carlo where they are free to engage in the excesses that they themselves forbid the populace to engage in.
A Saudi-American acquaintance of mine in Salem, Oregon has decried the deplorable situation in Saudi Arabia. His American half is constantly struggling against his Saudi half in a compressed self-eliminatory rage. This man hates his father and the unjust life of the Saudi Elite. He refers to his cousins as oil brats who have grown lazy, corrupt and fat living off oil subsidies while the rest of the region starves.
Other acquaintances from the Middle East have told me that no one in the area really wants to hire a Saudi. They are considered lazy, weak and unwilling to do an honest days work. I don’t know if that is true but it is telling of the discontent caused by racial tensions and the unequal distribution of wealth.
One of my favorite examples of these excesses is Prince Abdul Aziz’s personal theme park built for the tidy sum of 4.6 billion dollars and includes scale replicas of Mecca and other Islamic holy sites complete with actors. I’ll never look at Dollywood the same way again.
Whatever the cause it may not entirely be the fault of the young Saudi “oil brats” who are unemployed in large numbers and have very little to do but occupy their time listening to the rhetoric of the radical Islamists who operate the educational system. It is interesting to note that higher education in Saudi Arabia is free but over half of the PhDs awarded are in Islamic Studies which is being conducted by the extreme anti-west, anti-modern voices. In other words the Saudi’s are fueling the intellectual capital behind increasing further societal unrest in their world and abroad.
These same voices have declared jihad on all infidels epitomized by the United States as the Great Satan. This is a clear implication of the Saudi regime which maintains a close ties to the West especially the United States.
In Saudi Arabia the sexes are still segregated and women’s rights are non-existent and a rape victim is likely to be more severely punished than the rapist himself. The country also leads the region in the number of beheadings each year, a favorite Arabian form of execution. One that they have used to full advantage by sending video’s of the beheadings of western expatriates and journalists across the world via the internet and other media outlets.
Closer to home is the fact that millions of dollars of Saudi oil revenues are invested in American security markets. A sudden withdrawal of these funds due to revolutionary causes would not only cause a major collapse in our economy but the global economy as well.
This brings us to our present crisis in Iraq. At this point no one is contesting that the whole thing was a cluster fuck - except George W. Bush, who still persists in his hegemony - even his staunchest supporters are ducking. However ill advised, stupid, arrogant or immoral we want to label this occupation none of it changes the fact that this dangerous and costly mistake has been made. I believe that this error is so great that we have yet to fully comprehend all of the consequences that will befall us.
But as the old cliché goes, “you can’t ‘unring’ a bell” and, baby, this bell has been rung. Our occupation has only increased the prospects for terror as ant-American sentiments continue to increase and the region has become a training ground for future jihadists suicidaly bent on destroying the west.
Oil and are need to keep our hands on the lion share of the supply is at the heart of this problem. So is the fact that our current enemies were people we covertly supported during the Soviet era. In no small way we helped the Taliban into power and aided Osama Bin Laden in his revolutionary efforts. Resentment left over from the political changes wrought by the tearing down of the iron curtain is just one of the many contributing factors to our present problems.
Our invasion of Iraq created huge humanitarian problems just as our departure will. In many ways the war in Iraq will never be over; the battlefields may change but the underlying causes will remain. Resentment over the last 5 years will fester and create more violence down the way. This resentment and violence will become even greater as oil reserves begin to deplete and the world begins to focus even more attention on this beleaguered area as we all vie for access to the oil. It is not hard to imagine how so many people have envisioned this area as being the beginning of an apocalyptic civilization ending war.
The Bush Administration’s ignorant and shortsighted efforts in Iraq have not only destabilized the region further by eliminating Iran’s most prominent threat, Saddam Hussein, but have ensured that any headway we may have made for western interests will be utterly under minded upon our leaving.
Even Democratic presidential hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama admitted that they take Iran seriously and would respond decisivly if the rouge country pursued a nuclear arms program or attacked Israel. Israel poses somewhat of an irony for the region as it gives the hatred and revolutionary zeal something to be focused on. It is not inaccurate to say that the Arabs and Persians need Israel as their animosity toward the nation provides as fragile unifying point that would otherwise be turned inward upon themselves if Israel was not there to provide a buffer. Israel is necessary to any future hopes of stability in the region.
The fact that Clinton and Obama openly acknowledge the issues created by Iran in a post Saddam Hussein world belies a bigger question. What will they really do about Iraq when the pre-election rhetoric is over? The fact that the top military commander in the region recently requested that Congress make no immediate troop withdrawals can only lead logically to the assumption that things are still not as good as the Bush Administration wants us to believe.
I have always despised our war in Iraq and since the beginning have not only criticized it but stated we shouldn’t have even gone over there. I said this even before the first troops landed. But now that we are there I am not so sure we can just pack up and come home either. Why, oh why did our government not learn a very valuable lesson from the Soviet Union’s folly in the region?
We are mired in and entrenched but good. I am not entirely convinced that an Iraq free from a U.S. military presence is an intelligent option in the future for the region as well as the United States. For one thing after spending 5 years participating in the shooting up of the countryside our leaving is bound to intensify already strong anti-American sentiments. Our leaving is bound to create grave humanitarian consequences to quote Mike Huckabee (my 2nd least favorite politician but whom I agree with at least on this point.) and it may also threaten our access to the oil we need.
It is certainly speculative on my point to suggest a possible OPEC oil embargo against the United States. But it does seem like a possibility. As stated earlier our government takes for granted our current relationship with the Saudi government. But there are no guarantees that this will continue or that they won’t succumb to the mounting internal pressures that are inimical to U.S. interests.
Not to many years ago (1973) OPEC punished the United States for supporting Israel in their conflict with the Egyptians. Another embargo would be worse than the previous one even though there would be ways around it.
Finally, for those who are inclined to have faith that our free market economy will provide the impetus for new alternative energy technologies I would submit that it may be a blind faith. I speak as someone who often extols the virtues of free market economies. But so much of our faith is based on the continued availability of cheap fossil fuels. Even the development of new fuels and technologies are going to rely on the supply of oil in the near future.
In the end we are facing a problem that has a huge rearview mirror effect involved. If we don’t get started now in earnest we won’t be ready when the paradigm finally shifts. We only notice in passing from our review mirrors.