Nov 07, 2006 23:39
There are 36 governorships up for election; of the 14 not being elected today, 8 are Democrat, and 6 Republican.
Of the 36 races, 28 appear to be non-contests in the polls (including Oklahoma -- yay!). Of these 28, 16 are solidly Democratic, and 12 solidly Republican, bringing the count to 24-18.
That leaves 8 races that are real contests -- Idaho, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon, and Wisconsin. Of these, Democrats have firm leads in 4 (IA, MI, OR, and WI). Idaho (was Republican) is very close and has been volatile, but has been barely favoring the Democrat. Similarly, Maryland was Republican, but is very close and barely favors the Democrat. Minnesota was Republican, but the race currently leans to the Democrats, but it's still close. In Nevada, the GOP is fighting to keep control and maintains the edge, though it's also close. Of these races, I'd predict Minnesota will break Democrat and Nevada will remain Republican, while Idaho and Maryland will probably split -- ID GOP, and MD Dem. That brings the count to a 30-20 Democrat edge.