McCain's Gamble
So we learn today that McCain has selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his VP choice. Its a shrewd move, to be sure. But what does it gain him? Here's how I see it:
At first blush, Palin looks a bit like McCain, especially from the media brand perspective. She's a maverick in her own right, having risked the ire of her Republican Party in Alaska through whistleblowing and ethics investigations. She has a nice record from an environmental perspective and complements McCain on global warming perspectives. She will undoubtably appeal to the pro-life wing of the GOP, having just delivered her 5th child in April who was diagnosed with down's syndrom early in her pregnancy. She's young and a fresh face to help uplift the future of the GOP. To be honest, other than her reproductive rights perspective, she and I likely agree on more things than we disagree.
But, and you knew there was going to be one, she basically robs McCain of arguably the single most effective argument he had against Obama's candidacy: experience, or lack thereof. Palin is younger than Obama and has zero foreign policy experience. She's been Governor as long as Obama's been in the Senate. McCain is turning 76 this year and needed to pick someone that could allay some people's fear about his ability to serve two terms by having someone that could be President on day one. Palin falls way short on that account, if you're to believe how critical experience is according to McCain.
My guess is that McCain is gambling that he will pull enough of Hillary's supporters, from all walks and ideologies, to stem the tide of Obama's reconciliation at the convention. I think its a gamble that will ultimately fail.
Here's my one caveat how McCain could be successful, but I doubt it. In Palin he has an ally in the idea that how Washington works needs to change. If the McCain pre-2000 shows up at the convention, holds the mirror to his own party (not just the President) firmly and throws the Ted Stevens, Tom DeLays, Larry Craigs, and all the members of the GOP that have wildly pulled the party from its conservative roots under the bus and says "return to the conservative tradition or leave", he might pull enough Hillary supporters and independents to win the election. That is obviously a huge if, and unlikely because it would require being quite disruptive at the GOP convention and doing the unthinkable, criticizing your party at its convention. If he did that, I'd be darned impressed.
At first blush, Palin looks a bit like McCain, especially from the media brand perspective. She's a maverick in her own right, having risked the ire of her Republican Party in Alaska through whistleblowing and ethics investigations. She has a nice record from an environmental perspective and complements McCain on global warming perspectives. She will undoubtably appeal to the pro-life wing of the GOP, having just delivered her 5th child in April who was diagnosed with down's syndrom early in her pregnancy. She's young and a fresh face to help uplift the future of the GOP. To be honest, other than her reproductive rights perspective, she and I likely agree on more things than we disagree.
But, and you knew there was going to be one, she basically robs McCain of arguably the single most effective argument he had against Obama's candidacy: experience, or lack thereof. Palin is younger than Obama and has zero foreign policy experience. She's been Governor as long as Obama's been in the Senate. McCain is turning 76 this year and needed to pick someone that could allay some people's fear about his ability to serve two terms by having someone that could be President on day one. Palin falls way short on that account, if you're to believe how critical experience is according to McCain.
My guess is that McCain is gambling that he will pull enough of Hillary's supporters, from all walks and ideologies, to stem the tide of Obama's reconciliation at the convention. I think its a gamble that will ultimately fail.
Here's my one caveat how McCain could be successful, but I doubt it. In Palin he has an ally in the idea that how Washington works needs to change. If the McCain pre-2000 shows up at the convention, holds the mirror to his own party (not just the President) firmly and throws the Ted Stevens, Tom DeLays, Larry Craigs, and all the members of the GOP that have wildly pulled the party from its conservative roots under the bus and says "return to the conservative tradition or leave", he might pull enough Hillary supporters and independents to win the election. That is obviously a huge if, and unlikely because it would require being quite disruptive at the GOP convention and doing the unthinkable, criticizing your party at its convention. If he did that, I'd be darned impressed.