Pakistan, United States and Bin Laden
Here is a quick take on the future of Pakistan and US relations after bin Laden.
1 - Pakistan did not actively help bin Laden, but they didn't look for him either because of the massive amount of aid coming in to fight al-Queda. Now that UBL is dead, the aid is going to begin to dry up as it did when the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan. They are seeing the writing on the wall and are scrambling to distance themselves from the US. This will mean a return of deal making with Taliban in Waziristan and big trouble for Afghanistan.
2 - With UBL dead and the Afghanistan operation winding down, the battle for Afghan influence will begin. China, India and Pakistan will be moving into the area trying to increase their influence. The US will be forced to choose between the three and Pakistan will rank at the bottom.
3 - Pakistan will be on its own as it was in the 1990's when corruption became insane. Terrorism will continue to find a home there and the US will have no reason to tolerate it. Pakistan will become increasingly isolated and even more reliant on extremist elements.
For Paradox fans US/Pakistan relations should be at about -150 within 3 or so months.
1 - Pakistan did not actively help bin Laden, but they didn't look for him either because of the massive amount of aid coming in to fight al-Queda. Now that UBL is dead, the aid is going to begin to dry up as it did when the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan. They are seeing the writing on the wall and are scrambling to distance themselves from the US. This will mean a return of deal making with Taliban in Waziristan and big trouble for Afghanistan.
2 - With UBL dead and the Afghanistan operation winding down, the battle for Afghan influence will begin. China, India and Pakistan will be moving into the area trying to increase their influence. The US will be forced to choose between the three and Pakistan will rank at the bottom.
3 - Pakistan will be on its own as it was in the 1990's when corruption became insane. Terrorism will continue to find a home there and the US will have no reason to tolerate it. Pakistan will become increasingly isolated and even more reliant on extremist elements.
For Paradox fans US/Pakistan relations should be at about -150 within 3 or so months.