The following was included in my daily (unclassified) intel dump
Do you remember back when the US Navy confirmed that a Chinese Song-class submarine was able to stalk the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk and remain undetected until it surfaced and was spotted by a surveillance plane? While the incident surely embarrassed the strike group, the United States should be more worried than embarrassed. This is one example of the growing Chinese military strength and aggression that could create diplomatic problems between the two countries and a significant threat to America as a whole.
While Beijing has not made any overt threats against the United States suggesting that war is imminent, much of its recent military and political activity should cause concern. Over the past several years the Chinese have stolen vital military technologies from the United States, dramatically built up their naval forces, extended political influence throughout their region, and, in several instances, demonstrated hostility toward U.S. forces. While none of these issues are significant alone, as all countries engage in these behaviors to some degree, it is their frightening combination that could pose a threat to the United States and the world. Countries have always tried to learn about other nations’ military activities and, in many cases, steal each others’ secrets to aid their own military development. China is no exception here, but the nature of the ideas and technologies they have stolen from the United States could prove to be exceptionally problematic.
Another, more egregious example of Chinese intelligence activity is how they copied American Aegis destroyers and implemented the technology into their own guided missile destroyers by creating a fake construction company in the United States. The Aegis system allows Navy ships to track hundreds of surface, submarine, and air targets simultaneously, and through acquiring this technology, the Chinese have poised themselves to create a navy better equipped for so-called “blue-water” operations. Until now, the Chinese have primarily concerned themselves and their navy for coastal, “brown-water” defense rather than far-reaching action. The aggressive way in which China obtained this technology is worrisome, especially because of the way the technology could be used.
Stealing the Aegis technology is also one example of the overall military buildup in which the Chinese have engaged in recent years. A congressional report published last year indicated that the Chinese, in the next couple years, will launch several new diesel submarines (including those of the Song class which stalked the USS Kitty Hawk) and build two ballistic missile submarines capable of launching nuclear attacks. The Chinese have also purchased some old aircraft carriers from Russia and are refurbishing them. This would dramatically increase their navy’s ability to engage in power projection. Finally, the report indicated that by 2010, China would have a significant force composed of classic destroyers designed for surface engagements and amphibious craft capable of launching an invasion. This force would easily be able to invade Taiwan and maintain a blockade around that nation.
Additionally, the Chinese have been setting up naval bases along many primary shipping lanes such as the Straits of Malacca. Combined with the nation’s constant desire to take back Taiwan and isolate it from the world, the Chinese are setting themselves up to control the sea lanes in Asia. If they are successful, they could potentially shut down world trade if they so desired.
While this buildup would seem natural and acceptable for China, considering its rapid economic growth, it is China’s lack of cooperation with and, in some cases, outright hostility toward the United States military which makes this buildup and extension of power concerning. Besides this incident with the USS Kitty Hawk, the Chinese have, in recent years, acted with hostility in other instances. The most famous example of this hostility was in April 2001 when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US EP-3 spy plane operating over international waters. The plane was forced to land in China, where the People’s Liberation Army detained the 24 U.S. sailors onboard for 10 days. The PLA then scoured the spy plane for intelligence gathering technology and did not release it to the United States for three months.
Even more ominous and relevant to the United States was a comment last summer that a Chinese general made regarding the country’s aspirations to take over Taiwan. Hypothetically, if China invaded Taiwan, the United States would probably intervene because of diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the island nation’s strategic location in world shipping lanes, the possibility that China would invade other nations, and because Taiwan is one of the few democracies in the region. While this leader, General Zhu Chenghu did not imply that an invasion was imminent, he said frankly that if the United States would engage Chinese military forces to prevent such an invasion, China would respond with nuclear weapons. More frighteningly, he also suggested that the Chinese government would not be concerned if the United States responded in kind, saying, “We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."
The Chinese are not going to declare war on the United States tomorrow. They probably would not commit any military or diplomatic acts that would require us to go to war with them in the near future. But because of their past hostility to the American military, their recent naval buildup, their movements toward controlling the choke points of the Asian sea lanes, and their inclination to reclaim Taiwan should give any American citizen reason to worry. For now, the country needs to be vigilant. Americans must realize that investment in the navy is crucial to fighting future battles despite the current strains on the Army and Marine Corps. The recent incident with the USS Kitty Hawk proves this and definitely served as a wakeup call to the Navy, encouraging them to focus on antisubmarine warfare. The Chinese could prove a formidable adversary and one the United States would have to engage if the Chinese decided to expand their sphere of influence in Asia as their recent actions have indicated. If war would break out between the two countries, it would be one fought between the navies. But someday we'll look back on these moments...and plow into a parked car driven by a Chinese if we're not careful.
And it would be ugly.
While Beijing has not made any overt threats against the United States suggesting that war is imminent, much of its recent military and political activity should cause concern. Over the past several years the Chinese have stolen vital military technologies from the United States, dramatically built up their naval forces, extended political influence throughout their region, and, in several instances, demonstrated hostility toward U.S. forces. While none of these issues are significant alone, as all countries engage in these behaviors to some degree, it is their frightening combination that could pose a threat to the United States and the world. Countries have always tried to learn about other nations’ military activities and, in many cases, steal each others’ secrets to aid their own military development. China is no exception here, but the nature of the ideas and technologies they have stolen from the United States could prove to be exceptionally problematic.
Another, more egregious example of Chinese intelligence activity is how they copied American Aegis destroyers and implemented the technology into their own guided missile destroyers by creating a fake construction company in the United States. The Aegis system allows Navy ships to track hundreds of surface, submarine, and air targets simultaneously, and through acquiring this technology, the Chinese have poised themselves to create a navy better equipped for so-called “blue-water” operations. Until now, the Chinese have primarily concerned themselves and their navy for coastal, “brown-water” defense rather than far-reaching action. The aggressive way in which China obtained this technology is worrisome, especially because of the way the technology could be used.
Stealing the Aegis technology is also one example of the overall military buildup in which the Chinese have engaged in recent years. A congressional report published last year indicated that the Chinese, in the next couple years, will launch several new diesel submarines (including those of the Song class which stalked the USS Kitty Hawk) and build two ballistic missile submarines capable of launching nuclear attacks. The Chinese have also purchased some old aircraft carriers from Russia and are refurbishing them. This would dramatically increase their navy’s ability to engage in power projection. Finally, the report indicated that by 2010, China would have a significant force composed of classic destroyers designed for surface engagements and amphibious craft capable of launching an invasion. This force would easily be able to invade Taiwan and maintain a blockade around that nation.
Additionally, the Chinese have been setting up naval bases along many primary shipping lanes such as the Straits of Malacca. Combined with the nation’s constant desire to take back Taiwan and isolate it from the world, the Chinese are setting themselves up to control the sea lanes in Asia. If they are successful, they could potentially shut down world trade if they so desired.
While this buildup would seem natural and acceptable for China, considering its rapid economic growth, it is China’s lack of cooperation with and, in some cases, outright hostility toward the United States military which makes this buildup and extension of power concerning. Besides this incident with the USS Kitty Hawk, the Chinese have, in recent years, acted with hostility in other instances. The most famous example of this hostility was in April 2001 when a Chinese fighter jet collided with a US EP-3 spy plane operating over international waters. The plane was forced to land in China, where the People’s Liberation Army detained the 24 U.S. sailors onboard for 10 days. The PLA then scoured the spy plane for intelligence gathering technology and did not release it to the United States for three months.
Even more ominous and relevant to the United States was a comment last summer that a Chinese general made regarding the country’s aspirations to take over Taiwan. Hypothetically, if China invaded Taiwan, the United States would probably intervene because of diplomatic ties with Taiwan, the island nation’s strategic location in world shipping lanes, the possibility that China would invade other nations, and because Taiwan is one of the few democracies in the region. While this leader, General Zhu Chenghu did not imply that an invasion was imminent, he said frankly that if the United States would engage Chinese military forces to prevent such an invasion, China would respond with nuclear weapons. More frighteningly, he also suggested that the Chinese government would not be concerned if the United States responded in kind, saying, “We . . . will prepare ourselves for the destruction of all of the cities east of Xian. Of course the Americans will have to be prepared that hundreds . . . of cities will be destroyed by the Chinese."
The Chinese are not going to declare war on the United States tomorrow. They probably would not commit any military or diplomatic acts that would require us to go to war with them in the near future. But because of their past hostility to the American military, their recent naval buildup, their movements toward controlling the choke points of the Asian sea lanes, and their inclination to reclaim Taiwan should give any American citizen reason to worry. For now, the country needs to be vigilant. Americans must realize that investment in the navy is crucial to fighting future battles despite the current strains on the Army and Marine Corps. The recent incident with the USS Kitty Hawk proves this and definitely served as a wakeup call to the Navy, encouraging them to focus on antisubmarine warfare. The Chinese could prove a formidable adversary and one the United States would have to engage if the Chinese decided to expand their sphere of influence in Asia as their recent actions have indicated. If war would break out between the two countries, it would be one fought between the navies. But someday we'll look back on these moments...and plow into a parked car driven by a Chinese if we're not careful.
And it would be ugly.