The Syrian arabesque.
Vladimir Ahmedov
The Syrian arabesque.
(Some thoughts about latest’s development in Syria and around it) 1. A best way to end with what remains from Assad’s regime is to let Assad (as he wants) stand as a candidate in the next presidential elections that he will obviously loose (according latest’s calculations by influential Russian and Iranian think-tanks) and by this leave no chances for his supporters in the army, secret services, party and government apparatchiks to play any sustainable role in future Syria.
2. Seems only Assad doesn’t understand this very fact. Moscow and Tehran are working now with him trying to persuade Assad to refuse from this stupid idea to save their interests (oil, gas, military, economic contracts, transits roots, political, ideological influence) in Syria and to preserve a relative security in neighboring countries.
3. Some signs point that Moscow started finally understand that it couldn’t last Assad till 2014 as USA and its allies wouldn’t support such an option as a part of a mutual deal on Syria in Geneva2. But Iran, mainly clerics and their military “confederates” from “AL-Qouds Brigades” still have doubts. USA and Russia both are working now with Iran’s “moderates” using some EU facilities.
4. Those who want to predict a name and religion of a future candidate as an interim head of Syria (from regime side) have to thoroughly follow the latest developments in the directive organs of the al-Ba’ath that has recently activated its moves behind the scene to avoid the fate of their mattes in Iraq and Muslim Brothers in Egypt.
5. The importance of these attempts rise regards a very fact that Syrian political opposition still haven’t their alternative candidate for Geneva2 who can be looking adequate for perceptions of their supporters in the West and Arab states. Meanwhile “secular” military opposition in Syria (FSA and Salim Idris as a head) are quickly loosing their power grip positions in battlefields and among population in favor of Islamist (militant) Brigades that have recently accelerated unifying processes in their ranks to form an alternative Islamic army that don’t share western perceptions (democratic, pluralistic state, etc) and thus sounds not much reassuringly for the West regards recent failure of some influential analytic departments in C.I.A. in Egypt where they had been working for several years to support “moderates” from Muslim Brotherhood as an antidote to “AL-Qaida”. (That was a productive idea in intelligence perceptions, but got very poor implementations on political level. Typical. - V.A.).
6. To avoid this “vacuum of representativeness” and take part in Geneva2 that may take place without them (SNC, National Coalition) with participation of the opposition fractions closed to Assad and chosen by Russia and Iran Syrian opposition must present their united candidate on Geneva2. The best choice might be a former Syrian premier Riad Hajab supported by Ali Habib as an interim minister of defense.
7. The first day Geneva2 begins will mark the begging of an end of Assad’s rule in Syria as all preliminary decisions on this point, seems, have been already achieved at least between USA and Russia in general terms and on the level of mutual understanding of the necessity to put an end of Syrian war. But on how it goes, who will represent and what final decisions may be taken the fate of Syria and Syrian depend. Whether Syria rest for some time being under condominium rule by USA, Russia, Iran, Turkey (?), KSA that will define whom form “Isla mists” to “kill” or rest alive (and that means a prolonged war in its new phase), or Syrians could finally acquire their new independence and get a chance to realize the declared values of their Great Revolution they started on 15 March 2011.
The Syrian arabesque.
(Some thoughts about latest’s development in Syria and around it) 1. A best way to end with what remains from Assad’s regime is to let Assad (as he wants) stand as a candidate in the next presidential elections that he will obviously loose (according latest’s calculations by influential Russian and Iranian think-tanks) and by this leave no chances for his supporters in the army, secret services, party and government apparatchiks to play any sustainable role in future Syria.
2. Seems only Assad doesn’t understand this very fact. Moscow and Tehran are working now with him trying to persuade Assad to refuse from this stupid idea to save their interests (oil, gas, military, economic contracts, transits roots, political, ideological influence) in Syria and to preserve a relative security in neighboring countries.
3. Some signs point that Moscow started finally understand that it couldn’t last Assad till 2014 as USA and its allies wouldn’t support such an option as a part of a mutual deal on Syria in Geneva2. But Iran, mainly clerics and their military “confederates” from “AL-Qouds Brigades” still have doubts. USA and Russia both are working now with Iran’s “moderates” using some EU facilities.
4. Those who want to predict a name and religion of a future candidate as an interim head of Syria (from regime side) have to thoroughly follow the latest developments in the directive organs of the al-Ba’ath that has recently activated its moves behind the scene to avoid the fate of their mattes in Iraq and Muslim Brothers in Egypt.
5. The importance of these attempts rise regards a very fact that Syrian political opposition still haven’t their alternative candidate for Geneva2 who can be looking adequate for perceptions of their supporters in the West and Arab states. Meanwhile “secular” military opposition in Syria (FSA and Salim Idris as a head) are quickly loosing their power grip positions in battlefields and among population in favor of Islamist (militant) Brigades that have recently accelerated unifying processes in their ranks to form an alternative Islamic army that don’t share western perceptions (democratic, pluralistic state, etc) and thus sounds not much reassuringly for the West regards recent failure of some influential analytic departments in C.I.A. in Egypt where they had been working for several years to support “moderates” from Muslim Brotherhood as an antidote to “AL-Qaida”. (That was a productive idea in intelligence perceptions, but got very poor implementations on political level. Typical. - V.A.).
6. To avoid this “vacuum of representativeness” and take part in Geneva2 that may take place without them (SNC, National Coalition) with participation of the opposition fractions closed to Assad and chosen by Russia and Iran Syrian opposition must present their united candidate on Geneva2. The best choice might be a former Syrian premier Riad Hajab supported by Ali Habib as an interim minister of defense.
7. The first day Geneva2 begins will mark the begging of an end of Assad’s rule in Syria as all preliminary decisions on this point, seems, have been already achieved at least between USA and Russia in general terms and on the level of mutual understanding of the necessity to put an end of Syrian war. But on how it goes, who will represent and what final decisions may be taken the fate of Syria and Syrian depend. Whether Syria rest for some time being under condominium rule by USA, Russia, Iran, Turkey (?), KSA that will define whom form “Isla mists” to “kill” or rest alive (and that means a prolonged war in its new phase), or Syrians could finally acquire their new independence and get a chance to realize the declared values of their Great Revolution they started on 15 March 2011.