Bay Area folks and those who love them, PLEASE READ THIS
I know all y'all are going to get tired of me saying this over the coming years, but get used to it. Ignore it if you want - you're all big boys and girls and free to do as you wish. If it's all for naught, I'm happy to be thought a fool for it. If, however, my Chicken Little routine saves one of you, your animals, your home, or one of those things for someone YOU know and love, it will have been worth it.
The overview report from the USGS (link below) says, "In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%...The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%..."
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf
The full report on the Hayward Fault, which has a 31% probability (highest of all Bay Area faults) of rupturing in the next 30 years and runs directly through the center of the East Bay from Berkeley to east San Jose:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3019/fs2008-3019.pdf
A few choice quotes that hit the key bits:
"Even though the region was only sparsely populated at the time, the 1868 quake killed about 30 people and caused great property damage. It still ranks as one of the most destructive earthquakes in California’s history-but this is not the end of the story. The Hayward Fault will rupture violently again, and perhaps very soon."
"Studies of past earthquakes allow scientists to forecast the effects of future quakes. A similar quake to the anticipated next large Hayward Fault earthquake may be the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck Kobe, Japan, in 1995. The geography of Kobe, a port city built along the Nojima Fault on Osaka Bay, is strikingly similar to that of the East Bay, and the Nojima Fault and the Hayward Fault are both strike-slip faults of about the same length. The 1995 Kobe quake and subsequent fires caused more than 5,000 fatalities."
"Scientists now estimate that the magnitude of the 1868 quake was 6.8. Comparing the ShakeMaps from the 1868 Hayward and 1989 (magnitude 6.9) Loma Prieta earthquakes shows that a repeat of the 1868 quake will produce much higher levels of shaking and damage in the East Bay than did the 1989 quake."
"The Hayward Fault is the single most urbanized earthquake fault in the United States-in 1868 there were only 24,000 people living near the fault in Alameda County, now there are more than 2.4 million. Hundreds of homes and other structures are built directly on the fault’s trace, and mass transit corridors, major freeways, and many roadways cross it at numerous locations. Also, critical regional gas and water pipelines and electrical transmission lines cross the fault."
"A second factor making the Hayward Fault so dangerous now is that its most recent damaging earthquake was 140 years ago. USGS scientists have found evidence for 12 quakes on the southern Hayward Fault during the past 1,900 years. Ominously, the last five events (in 1315, 1470, 1630, 1725, and 1868) occurred at intervals of 95 to 160 years, with an average interval of 138 years."
"As demonstrated by the aftermath of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina, recovery from such catastrophic events can take years. According to another recent study, a repeat of the 1868 earthquake could cause economic losses (including damage to buildings and contents, business interruption, and living expenses) exceeding $120 billion, with more than 90% of both residential and commercial losses being uninsured."
I have increasingly realized that most of the people in the Bay Area just don't want to think about this - it's too scary, it seems too remote, they don't know how to start making a plan, whatever.
The reality is that all of you are smart, realistic people, and smart, realistic people WHO HAVE PLANNED AHEAD are the ones who largely survive disasters.
Please, please PLAN AHEAD. Right now. Start today. Basic emergency preparedness is pretty common-sensical, but there's a ton of information out there on it if you need more input. Please remember your animals and your cars - really think through the fact that you might be caught dozens of miles from home and not be able to get there for days or even weeks! Make a plan with friends, family, and neighbors for rendezvous points, looking after each other's homes, animals and families, etc. Lay in at least 2 weeks' worth of food and potable water for all living beings in the house, and put them where they won't get blocked in if there's structural damage (as best you can). Get a *good* water filter, emergency hand-crank radio, and utility knife - you could survive at least a week with those and nothing else if you had to. STRAP YOUR BOOKCASES, for heaven's sake! I still remember having to fight my way into homes after the Loma Prieta because there were books and bookcases everywhere, and they're a prime source of injury for animals. Make sure EVERY car has a basic emergency kit, along with sturdy walking shoes and a decent map of the Bay Area so you can hike to the nearest safe place if need be.
Take this seriously, people. It's GOING to happen.
The overview report from the USGS (link below) says, "In a new comprehensive study, scientists have determined that the chance of having one or more magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquakes in the California area over the next 30 years is greater than 99%...The likelihood of at least one even more powerful quake of magnitude 7.5 or greater in the next 30 years is 46%..."
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3027/fs2008-3027.pdf
The full report on the Hayward Fault, which has a 31% probability (highest of all Bay Area faults) of rupturing in the next 30 years and runs directly through the center of the East Bay from Berkeley to east San Jose:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2008/3019/fs2008-3019.pdf
A few choice quotes that hit the key bits:
"Even though the region was only sparsely populated at the time, the 1868 quake killed about 30 people and caused great property damage. It still ranks as one of the most destructive earthquakes in California’s history-but this is not the end of the story. The Hayward Fault will rupture violently again, and perhaps very soon."
"Studies of past earthquakes allow scientists to forecast the effects of future quakes. A similar quake to the anticipated next large Hayward Fault earthquake may be the magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck Kobe, Japan, in 1995. The geography of Kobe, a port city built along the Nojima Fault on Osaka Bay, is strikingly similar to that of the East Bay, and the Nojima Fault and the Hayward Fault are both strike-slip faults of about the same length. The 1995 Kobe quake and subsequent fires caused more than 5,000 fatalities."
"Scientists now estimate that the magnitude of the 1868 quake was 6.8. Comparing the ShakeMaps from the 1868 Hayward and 1989 (magnitude 6.9) Loma Prieta earthquakes shows that a repeat of the 1868 quake will produce much higher levels of shaking and damage in the East Bay than did the 1989 quake."
"The Hayward Fault is the single most urbanized earthquake fault in the United States-in 1868 there were only 24,000 people living near the fault in Alameda County, now there are more than 2.4 million. Hundreds of homes and other structures are built directly on the fault’s trace, and mass transit corridors, major freeways, and many roadways cross it at numerous locations. Also, critical regional gas and water pipelines and electrical transmission lines cross the fault."
"A second factor making the Hayward Fault so dangerous now is that its most recent damaging earthquake was 140 years ago. USGS scientists have found evidence for 12 quakes on the southern Hayward Fault during the past 1,900 years. Ominously, the last five events (in 1315, 1470, 1630, 1725, and 1868) occurred at intervals of 95 to 160 years, with an average interval of 138 years."
"As demonstrated by the aftermath of 2005’s Hurricane Katrina, recovery from such catastrophic events can take years. According to another recent study, a repeat of the 1868 earthquake could cause economic losses (including damage to buildings and contents, business interruption, and living expenses) exceeding $120 billion, with more than 90% of both residential and commercial losses being uninsured."
I have increasingly realized that most of the people in the Bay Area just don't want to think about this - it's too scary, it seems too remote, they don't know how to start making a plan, whatever.
The reality is that all of you are smart, realistic people, and smart, realistic people WHO HAVE PLANNED AHEAD are the ones who largely survive disasters.
Please, please PLAN AHEAD. Right now. Start today. Basic emergency preparedness is pretty common-sensical, but there's a ton of information out there on it if you need more input. Please remember your animals and your cars - really think through the fact that you might be caught dozens of miles from home and not be able to get there for days or even weeks! Make a plan with friends, family, and neighbors for rendezvous points, looking after each other's homes, animals and families, etc. Lay in at least 2 weeks' worth of food and potable water for all living beings in the house, and put them where they won't get blocked in if there's structural damage (as best you can). Get a *good* water filter, emergency hand-crank radio, and utility knife - you could survive at least a week with those and nothing else if you had to. STRAP YOUR BOOKCASES, for heaven's sake! I still remember having to fight my way into homes after the Loma Prieta because there were books and bookcases everywhere, and they're a prime source of injury for animals. Make sure EVERY car has a basic emergency kit, along with sturdy walking shoes and a decent map of the Bay Area so you can hike to the nearest safe place if need be.
Take this seriously, people. It's GOING to happen.