My Politically Incorrect Oscar Predictions
These are not who I hope to win, but who will probably win.
1. Performance by actor in leading role
This will be a battle between Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix. Given how the Acadamy feels sorry for victims of recent car accidents and those who have dead brothers, I predict it will go to Phoenix. However, the Academy also feels sorry for people who pretend to be gay onscreen, so it could very well end up with Ledger. Personally, I will be happy if it goes to either one.
2. Performance by actor in supporting role
George Clooney may seem kind of gay in real life, but I think the oscar here will go to Jake Gyllenhaal, even if Ledger thinks it belongs to those who don't have to pretend.
3. Performance by actress in leading role
Okay. All these nominations seem pretty horrible. I think Judi Dench should get it because she was fabulous in her portrayal of M, but the Academy pretty much hates James Bond and English people (but it has grudgingly taken a liking to Australians who fight in bars), so she won't get it. The Academy loves women who stand up for themselves, however, so it will most likely go to Charlize Theron. There is that possibility it will go to Reese Witherspoon. The mere thought of this makes me want to vomit.
4. Performance by actress in supporting role
The women just haven't done very well this year. Probably Frances McDormand. Maybe Michelle Williams...but...Brokeback Mountain was kinda all about the men.
5. Best animated feature film of the year
Again, the Academy's dislike of the English will play a role here. This is a tough one, actually, because Tim Burton is the only non-foreign artist here, and the Academy does not like him much because he is weird. I'm going to blindly point at...Howl's Moving Castle. Hey, it's about time the Academy realized Japanese animation (or Japanime) is going to take over everything we used to love about Disney movies.
6. Achievement in art direction
Memoirs of a Geisha should win this, but their competition is not against the English or some weirdo, so the chances of that happening are slim. All the other films were horrible, but I'm guessing this is the one award King Kong will win...unfortunately...
7. Achievement in cinematography
I see Batman Begins made the list. Thank you for placating those of us who are comic book fans. At least we know it has a chance...not...Seriously, can you name one comic book film, one film that even mentioned the words "comic book", that actually won an award??? Yeah. Brokeback Mountain will get it, though the award belongs to Memoirs of a Geisha.
8. Achievement in costume design
*Sigh.* No, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. I am going to cross my fingers here and hope and predict that Memoirs of a Geisha will get this award, though I doubt it. While the costumes were good, I wouldn't say they were entirely original. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has the originality down...but the effect...hmm...no. Just no.
9. Achievement in directing
A battle between Spielberg and Ang Lee. Who do you think will win? When asking this question, we look to see who has not won an oscar yet. Piss off Spielberg. Brokeback Mountain.
10. Best documentary feature
I was disappointed in March of the Penguins after all the hype. It sure beats a Michael Moore documentary though. Since it is the only one I recognize on this list, and I think the Academy had to search for the other four just to give that illusion of competition, um, yeah, March of the Penguins.
11. Best documentary short subject
Who cares? This is just here to make the Academy Awards longer, so that when we finally get to the moment when they declare Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain (oops, I gave it away, sorry), we can feel...relieved...?
12. Achievement in film editing
Anyone who has to edit a Spielberg film deserves our sympathy. Since sympathy is what the Academy loves, Munich. All the way.
13. Best foreign language film of the year
Well, who do we have the best foreign relations with? Joyeux Noel is right out, the controversy about the French and Christmas and the French and how offended we might get seeing that the French celebrate Christmas (yet another reason for getting rid of it)...yeah...it's out. We don't like Palestine, so there goes Paradise Now. Germany...eh...no. Hmm...guess it's Italy again. Don't Tell.
14. Achievement in makeup
Since two of the three movies happen to be of that evil category, sci-fi/fantasy, and since the Academy graciously gave that award to Peter Jackson not so long ago, well, I'd have to go with Cinderella Man, even though the makeup in Star Wars and Narnia absolutely nail it. Star Wars should get it, even though the movie itself blew chunks.
15. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original score)
This is never really about the music. It is good for predicting who will win Best Picture though. Brokeback Mountain.
16. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original song)
It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp...hmm...don't think the Academy will like that. But it might soften the blow (no pun intended) when they announce the Best Picture of 2006. Yeah, I'll just say it'll win.
17. Best motion picture of the year
Well, remember when Denzel Washington and Halle Berry both won in the same night? Because the Academy realized they did not tend to give the Oscars to black...ahem...African Americans and people were starting to take notice? Yeah. Brokeback Mountain. Basically the same reasons.
18. Best animated short film
See number 11.
19. Best live action short film
See number 11.
20. Achievement in sound editing
War of the Worlds. Why? I have no idea.
21. Achievement in sound mixing
King Kong.
22. Achievement in visual effects
This is a battle between King Kong and Narnia. In my opinion, this battle should be closer to the top...but, eh, it's a taste thing. I hope Narnia wins, but I know King Kong will, despite Ebert's opinions.
23. Adapted screenplay
Brokeback Mountain. They went from a crappy story to an okay movie. Gotta give them credit for that.
24. Original screenplay
Crash. Because it has to win something.
1. Performance by actor in leading role
This will be a battle between Heath Ledger and Joaquin Phoenix. Given how the Acadamy feels sorry for victims of recent car accidents and those who have dead brothers, I predict it will go to Phoenix. However, the Academy also feels sorry for people who pretend to be gay onscreen, so it could very well end up with Ledger. Personally, I will be happy if it goes to either one.
2. Performance by actor in supporting role
George Clooney may seem kind of gay in real life, but I think the oscar here will go to Jake Gyllenhaal, even if Ledger thinks it belongs to those who don't have to pretend.
3. Performance by actress in leading role
Okay. All these nominations seem pretty horrible. I think Judi Dench should get it because she was fabulous in her portrayal of M, but the Academy pretty much hates James Bond and English people (but it has grudgingly taken a liking to Australians who fight in bars), so she won't get it. The Academy loves women who stand up for themselves, however, so it will most likely go to Charlize Theron. There is that possibility it will go to Reese Witherspoon. The mere thought of this makes me want to vomit.
4. Performance by actress in supporting role
The women just haven't done very well this year. Probably Frances McDormand. Maybe Michelle Williams...but...Brokeback Mountain was kinda all about the men.
5. Best animated feature film of the year
Again, the Academy's dislike of the English will play a role here. This is a tough one, actually, because Tim Burton is the only non-foreign artist here, and the Academy does not like him much because he is weird. I'm going to blindly point at...Howl's Moving Castle. Hey, it's about time the Academy realized Japanese animation (or Japanime) is going to take over everything we used to love about Disney movies.
6. Achievement in art direction
Memoirs of a Geisha should win this, but their competition is not against the English or some weirdo, so the chances of that happening are slim. All the other films were horrible, but I'm guessing this is the one award King Kong will win...unfortunately...
7. Achievement in cinematography
I see Batman Begins made the list. Thank you for placating those of us who are comic book fans. At least we know it has a chance...not...Seriously, can you name one comic book film, one film that even mentioned the words "comic book", that actually won an award??? Yeah. Brokeback Mountain will get it, though the award belongs to Memoirs of a Geisha.
8. Achievement in costume design
*Sigh.* No, Charlie and the Chocolate Factory. I am going to cross my fingers here and hope and predict that Memoirs of a Geisha will get this award, though I doubt it. While the costumes were good, I wouldn't say they were entirely original. Charlie and the Chocolate Factory has the originality down...but the effect...hmm...no. Just no.
9. Achievement in directing
A battle between Spielberg and Ang Lee. Who do you think will win? When asking this question, we look to see who has not won an oscar yet. Piss off Spielberg. Brokeback Mountain.
10. Best documentary feature
I was disappointed in March of the Penguins after all the hype. It sure beats a Michael Moore documentary though. Since it is the only one I recognize on this list, and I think the Academy had to search for the other four just to give that illusion of competition, um, yeah, March of the Penguins.
11. Best documentary short subject
Who cares? This is just here to make the Academy Awards longer, so that when we finally get to the moment when they declare Best Picture: Brokeback Mountain (oops, I gave it away, sorry), we can feel...relieved...?
12. Achievement in film editing
Anyone who has to edit a Spielberg film deserves our sympathy. Since sympathy is what the Academy loves, Munich. All the way.
13. Best foreign language film of the year
Well, who do we have the best foreign relations with? Joyeux Noel is right out, the controversy about the French and Christmas and the French and how offended we might get seeing that the French celebrate Christmas (yet another reason for getting rid of it)...yeah...it's out. We don't like Palestine, so there goes Paradise Now. Germany...eh...no. Hmm...guess it's Italy again. Don't Tell.
14. Achievement in makeup
Since two of the three movies happen to be of that evil category, sci-fi/fantasy, and since the Academy graciously gave that award to Peter Jackson not so long ago, well, I'd have to go with Cinderella Man, even though the makeup in Star Wars and Narnia absolutely nail it. Star Wars should get it, even though the movie itself blew chunks.
15. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original score)
This is never really about the music. It is good for predicting who will win Best Picture though. Brokeback Mountain.
16. Achievement in music written for motion pictures (original song)
It's Hard Out Here For A Pimp...hmm...don't think the Academy will like that. But it might soften the blow (no pun intended) when they announce the Best Picture of 2006. Yeah, I'll just say it'll win.
17. Best motion picture of the year
Well, remember when Denzel Washington and Halle Berry both won in the same night? Because the Academy realized they did not tend to give the Oscars to black...ahem...African Americans and people were starting to take notice? Yeah. Brokeback Mountain. Basically the same reasons.
18. Best animated short film
See number 11.
19. Best live action short film
See number 11.
20. Achievement in sound editing
War of the Worlds. Why? I have no idea.
21. Achievement in sound mixing
King Kong.
22. Achievement in visual effects
This is a battle between King Kong and Narnia. In my opinion, this battle should be closer to the top...but, eh, it's a taste thing. I hope Narnia wins, but I know King Kong will, despite Ebert's opinions.
23. Adapted screenplay
Brokeback Mountain. They went from a crappy story to an okay movie. Gotta give them credit for that.
24. Original screenplay
Crash. Because it has to win something.