So... this oil thing.
Actually taking a page from the wife here...
How much oil do we have left?
Well. The US uses about 7.5 billion barrels a year. (http://genomicsgtl.energy.gov/biofuels/transportation.shtml#consumption)
ANWR, the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge we haven't tapped yet, has between 5 and 16 billion barrels worth of oil. (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm) So not too too much help there.
How much does the rest of the world have and use? Harder to get a straight answer, looks like. Wikipedia pegs top oil reserves at 1,137 billion barrels of oil.
The world uses about 82 million barrels per day, though, which rounds out to about 30 billion barrels per year- assuming my math is anywhere near correct. (http://services.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/view/S4ooTEsOtha6b6ETvCyUE2~)
So at the current rate, we run completely out of oil in 40 years at the current rate of consumption by my guess. However, it's a bit more complex than that, partly because of an aggravating scientist by the name of Hubbert.
What's Hubbert's curve? Well, Hubbert made two claims:
A) all limited resource exploitation produces a bell-shaped curve of use over time, peaking where production coincides with the point at which supply begins to dwindle, and exploitation of said resource tapers off as alternatives are located. Pretty reasonable.
B) The 'peak oil' moment would happen in 1995. Less reasonable, given that it's 2008 and we haven't hit peak oil usage yet.
The good news: We haven't hit peak oil yet! Yay! The current curve expects peak oil at 2020.
The bad news: We may not recognize that we've hit peak oil until well past the peak. I.e., if certain countries are exaggerating their oil reserves, we'll run dry much sooner than expected. If we hit peak oil before viable alternatives are found, we're going to be in a tight spot- global economies are not necessarily known for their ability to adapt quickly.
But, if we're lucky, we won't hit said tight spot until my future children (insh'Allah) are ten or eleven. More than enough time to teach them how to DIY up some photovoltaic cells.
Hope that works.
How much oil do we have left?
Well. The US uses about 7.5 billion barrels a year. (http://genomicsgtl.energy.gov/biofuels/transportation.shtml#consumption)
ANWR, the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge we haven't tapped yet, has between 5 and 16 billion barrels worth of oil. (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.htm) So not too too much help there.
How much does the rest of the world have and use? Harder to get a straight answer, looks like. Wikipedia pegs top oil reserves at 1,137 billion barrels of oil.
The world uses about 82 million barrels per day, though, which rounds out to about 30 billion barrels per year- assuming my math is anywhere near correct. (http://services.alphaworks.ibm.com/manyeyes/view/S4ooTEsOtha6b6ETvCyUE2~)
So at the current rate, we run completely out of oil in 40 years at the current rate of consumption by my guess. However, it's a bit more complex than that, partly because of an aggravating scientist by the name of Hubbert.
What's Hubbert's curve? Well, Hubbert made two claims:
A) all limited resource exploitation produces a bell-shaped curve of use over time, peaking where production coincides with the point at which supply begins to dwindle, and exploitation of said resource tapers off as alternatives are located. Pretty reasonable.
B) The 'peak oil' moment would happen in 1995. Less reasonable, given that it's 2008 and we haven't hit peak oil usage yet.
The good news: We haven't hit peak oil yet! Yay! The current curve expects peak oil at 2020.
The bad news: We may not recognize that we've hit peak oil until well past the peak. I.e., if certain countries are exaggerating their oil reserves, we'll run dry much sooner than expected. If we hit peak oil before viable alternatives are found, we're going to be in a tight spot- global economies are not necessarily known for their ability to adapt quickly.
But, if we're lucky, we won't hit said tight spot until my future children (insh'Allah) are ten or eleven. More than enough time to teach them how to DIY up some photovoltaic cells.
Hope that works.