Oscars 2013
Oscars tonight! Being the very last award show of the season, the Oscars (at least the major awards) are usually pretty damn easy to predict; but I actually feel like this year's race could be the most interesting and unpredictable in recent memory. But here I go (and I've even got money riding on it this year):
BEST PICTURE: ARGO
There's no way this movie isn't going to win. It won the DGA, the PGA, the SAG, the Golden Globe, the Critic's Choice, it's popular with audiences, and it involves Hollywood patting itself on the back for "helping" to save lives during an international crisis. Anyone who tries to convince people that it won't win by quoting statistics about Best Director nominations can't see the forest for the trees. (Speaking of which...)
BEST DIRECTOR: STEVEN SPIELBERG (LINCOLN)
With Ben Affleck not being nominated, this category is seemingly wide open. But Spielberg, of course, is the most obvious choice just because he's Spielberg. He hasn't won since Saving Private Ryan in '98, and the Academy clearly loves Lincoln, awarding it the most nominations of any movie. Ang Lee could possibly upset thanks to Life of Pi's technical achievements, but much more likely would be David O. Russell because Silver Linings Playbook is actually the only movie this year to be nominated for picture, director, screenplay, and all four acting categories (AKA every major award).
BEST ACTOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (LINCOLN)
Daniel Day-Lewis + Abraham Lincoln = no contest.
BEST ACTRESS: JENNIFER LAWRENCE (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
Emmanuelle Riva could very well pull an Adrien Brody here, but I'm not putting my money on it. Jennifer has a Golden Globe, the SAG and an obviously much-loved movie, as I said. Plus, she also has Harvey Weinstein behind her, and, as I learned last year, never underestimate the Harvey Weinstein campaign machine. (Speaking of which...)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: ROBERT DE NIRO (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
This is probably the closest race of all the major awards - between De Niro, Christoph Waltz, and Tommy Lee Jones. Jones has the SAG; and Waltz has the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and a Weinstein Company movie, which should actually make him the clear frontrunner, EXCEPT that he just won three years ago in the same category for another Quentin Tarantino movie. Supporting Actor wins never double-up that closely together. So I'm going with Weinstein's other boy, Robert de Niro, who is very much-loved and hasn't been nominated in 21 years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ANNE HATHAWAY (LES MISERABLES)
She's won everything. No contest.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: DJANGO UNCHAINED
Not a lock, but the Academy likes Tarantino. He's edgy and funny and smart and clever, and his voice is entirely his own.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: ARGO
Argo can't win Best Picture and no other major award, which means it has to win this. But Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook could give us an upset (and change the outlook on Best Picture in the process).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: AMOUR
The only nominee I've heard anything about, and the only one to cross over to the mainstream awards. So another no contest.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: BRAVE
Super close race between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, but I'm doubtful of the older Academy members' appreciation of video games.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
The most commercially successful nominee, which usually translates to the win in this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: LIFE OF PI
GOD I WISH ROGER DEAKINS WOULD WIN. He is clearly a genius (especially when it comes to lighting) - just think of that scene in the Shanghai skyscraper in Skyfall - but I just can't see the Academy awarding him for an action movie when he's already lost for The Shawshank Redemption, Kundun, The Assassination of Jesse James..., The Reader, and almost every movie the Coen brothers have ever made. Not that Claudio Miranda doesn't deserve it too, though; in addition to being obviously beautiful, Life of Pi is also technically innovative.
BEST FILM EDITING: ARGO
As a tense sort of action/suspense thriller, I'm certain this movie must have a ton of cuts in it, which always translates to the win here. Now, Zero Dark Thirty is also an action movie (and actually has the same editor!!), but, as the likely Best Picture, Argo has the edge.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: ANNA KARENINA
Any of the period movies could easily win here, but Anna Karenina was done all on a stage, which I think makes it something special.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: ANNA KARENINA
Possibly the biggest toss-up of the entire show. The Mirror Mirror designs are RIDICULOUS(ly beautiful); the Lincoln designs are exactingly period; the Les Miz designs are period and eclectic; Colleen Atwood (Snow White and the Huntsman) is a huge favorite who has already won a whole bunch of times before; but the Anna Karenina designs are like true FASHION, so, again, I'm giving it the edge.
BEST MAKEUP: THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
I don't understand why people are choosing Les Miz here. I suppose I could be wrong, but I don't see how making actors look sickly is anywhere near as impressive as the work it takes to make them look like hobbits, dwarves, and orcs.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: LIFE OF PI
I really have nothing to go on here except that this score already won the Golden Globe, and it's my personal favorite of the nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "SKYFALL" (SKYFALL)
It's freaking Adele. Another no contest.
BEST SOUND EDITING: SKYFALL
Usually goes to an action or war movie, so I figure it's a toss-up between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty. I just picked the one I've seen.
BEST SOUND MIXING: LES MISERABLES
When there's a musical in the running, it usually wins. I'm not sure if/how it'll factor in that all the singing was done live.... I guess we'll see.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: LIFE OF PI
LONG LIVE RICHARD PARKER. If he looked anything less than amazing, the movie would fall apart.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: ADAM AND DOG
I am in love with this movie. The animation is beautiful; the sound design is incredible; the story is so sweet and sad; and the whole thing was made by just an independent animator and his friends with no studio behind them. It's amazing, and I'm going to be absolutely devastated if it doesn't win.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: CURFEW
This seems like the most accessible of the nominees, while still addressing a serious subject (suicide) with a lot of emotion.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: INOCENTE
I think the Academy probably really admire the story of a girl who draws strength through art.
BEST PICTURE: ARGO
There's no way this movie isn't going to win. It won the DGA, the PGA, the SAG, the Golden Globe, the Critic's Choice, it's popular with audiences, and it involves Hollywood patting itself on the back for "helping" to save lives during an international crisis. Anyone who tries to convince people that it won't win by quoting statistics about Best Director nominations can't see the forest for the trees. (Speaking of which...)
BEST DIRECTOR: STEVEN SPIELBERG (LINCOLN)
With Ben Affleck not being nominated, this category is seemingly wide open. But Spielberg, of course, is the most obvious choice just because he's Spielberg. He hasn't won since Saving Private Ryan in '98, and the Academy clearly loves Lincoln, awarding it the most nominations of any movie. Ang Lee could possibly upset thanks to Life of Pi's technical achievements, but much more likely would be David O. Russell because Silver Linings Playbook is actually the only movie this year to be nominated for picture, director, screenplay, and all four acting categories (AKA every major award).
BEST ACTOR: DANIEL DAY-LEWIS (LINCOLN)
Daniel Day-Lewis + Abraham Lincoln = no contest.
BEST ACTRESS: JENNIFER LAWRENCE (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
Emmanuelle Riva could very well pull an Adrien Brody here, but I'm not putting my money on it. Jennifer has a Golden Globe, the SAG and an obviously much-loved movie, as I said. Plus, she also has Harvey Weinstein behind her, and, as I learned last year, never underestimate the Harvey Weinstein campaign machine. (Speaking of which...)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: ROBERT DE NIRO (SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK)
This is probably the closest race of all the major awards - between De Niro, Christoph Waltz, and Tommy Lee Jones. Jones has the SAG; and Waltz has the Golden Globe, the BAFTA, and a Weinstein Company movie, which should actually make him the clear frontrunner, EXCEPT that he just won three years ago in the same category for another Quentin Tarantino movie. Supporting Actor wins never double-up that closely together. So I'm going with Weinstein's other boy, Robert de Niro, who is very much-loved and hasn't been nominated in 21 years.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: ANNE HATHAWAY (LES MISERABLES)
She's won everything. No contest.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: DJANGO UNCHAINED
Not a lock, but the Academy likes Tarantino. He's edgy and funny and smart and clever, and his voice is entirely his own.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: ARGO
Argo can't win Best Picture and no other major award, which means it has to win this. But Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook could give us an upset (and change the outlook on Best Picture in the process).
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: AMOUR
The only nominee I've heard anything about, and the only one to cross over to the mainstream awards. So another no contest.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: BRAVE
Super close race between Brave and Wreck-It Ralph, but I'm doubtful of the older Academy members' appreciation of video games.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: SEARCHING FOR SUGAR MAN
The most commercially successful nominee, which usually translates to the win in this category.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: LIFE OF PI
GOD I WISH ROGER DEAKINS WOULD WIN. He is clearly a genius (especially when it comes to lighting) - just think of that scene in the Shanghai skyscraper in Skyfall - but I just can't see the Academy awarding him for an action movie when he's already lost for The Shawshank Redemption, Kundun, The Assassination of Jesse James..., The Reader, and almost every movie the Coen brothers have ever made. Not that Claudio Miranda doesn't deserve it too, though; in addition to being obviously beautiful, Life of Pi is also technically innovative.
BEST FILM EDITING: ARGO
As a tense sort of action/suspense thriller, I'm certain this movie must have a ton of cuts in it, which always translates to the win here. Now, Zero Dark Thirty is also an action movie (and actually has the same editor!!), but, as the likely Best Picture, Argo has the edge.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN: ANNA KARENINA
Any of the period movies could easily win here, but Anna Karenina was done all on a stage, which I think makes it something special.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: ANNA KARENINA
Possibly the biggest toss-up of the entire show. The Mirror Mirror designs are RIDICULOUS(ly beautiful); the Lincoln designs are exactingly period; the Les Miz designs are period and eclectic; Colleen Atwood (Snow White and the Huntsman) is a huge favorite who has already won a whole bunch of times before; but the Anna Karenina designs are like true FASHION, so, again, I'm giving it the edge.
BEST MAKEUP: THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY
I don't understand why people are choosing Les Miz here. I suppose I could be wrong, but I don't see how making actors look sickly is anywhere near as impressive as the work it takes to make them look like hobbits, dwarves, and orcs.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: LIFE OF PI
I really have nothing to go on here except that this score already won the Golden Globe, and it's my personal favorite of the nominees.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "SKYFALL" (SKYFALL)
It's freaking Adele. Another no contest.
BEST SOUND EDITING: SKYFALL
Usually goes to an action or war movie, so I figure it's a toss-up between Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty. I just picked the one I've seen.
BEST SOUND MIXING: LES MISERABLES
When there's a musical in the running, it usually wins. I'm not sure if/how it'll factor in that all the singing was done live.... I guess we'll see.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: LIFE OF PI
LONG LIVE RICHARD PARKER. If he looked anything less than amazing, the movie would fall apart.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: ADAM AND DOG
I am in love with this movie. The animation is beautiful; the sound design is incredible; the story is so sweet and sad; and the whole thing was made by just an independent animator and his friends with no studio behind them. It's amazing, and I'm going to be absolutely devastated if it doesn't win.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: CURFEW
This seems like the most accessible of the nominees, while still addressing a serious subject (suicide) with a lot of emotion.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: INOCENTE
I think the Academy probably really admire the story of a girl who draws strength through art.