(no subject)
So, Oscars tonight! But first I actually went to a hockey game this afternoon. (We got tickets from work for winning some contest, and Krystal really wanted to me to go, so OK.) And Michael wanted us to then skip the Oscars and go to dinner instead, but I refused. I haven't missed an Oscar telecast in 15 years; I'm not going to stop now just so he can get one of his ridiculous mozarella cheesetick sandwiches from Denny's. Anyway, I feel pretty good about my final picks (keep in mind I'm picking who I think will win, not necessarily who should), but at the same time I'm actually secretly not-so-secretly hoping for some upsets.
BEST PICTURE: THE ARTIST
For a long time I was a little resistant to the idea of a black-and-white silent comedy winning Best Picture in 2012, but as time goes on it has become more and more obvious that there's really no contest here. No one seems to be talking about The Descendants anymore. And forget what I said about The Help pulling an upset; after some more research I've discovered it actually doesn't stand a chance: It doesn't have noms for its director or screenplay, and you want to know the only times a film has ever won Best Picture without at least one of those? Wings in 1927 and Grand Hotel in 1932.
BEST DIRECTOR: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
No contest here either. Hazanavicius won the DGA Award, which has predicted the Oscars' Best Director in 58 out of its 64 years. I'm certainly not betting against those odds.
BEST ACTOR: JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
Apparently a lot of "insiders" are still predicting Clooney to win, and I suppose it's possible, but Dujardin has the SAG, a Golden Globe, a plethora of critics awards, the likely Best Picture, and a performance that seriously carries the entire movie.
BEST ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
I'm honestly still very conflicted about this. Everyone seems to be picking Viola, so I'm not going to be the asshole who doesn't, and, yes, she has the SAG, which is usually a very good Oscar barometer. But usually the person who wins the SAG also gets a Golden Globe, and she didn't. The only actresses to ever pull the Oscar out in that situation were Frances McDormand in 1996 and Halle Berry in 2001. And most times when actresses have won the SAG but then lost the Oscar, they lost it to actresses playing biographical roles. Do not underestimate the Academy's love for biographical roles. But then, of course, Meryl's problem is that her movie, apart from her individual performance, is poorly reviewed. I don't think anyone's ever won such a major award for such a poorly reviewed movie. So I don't know. Perhaps Michelle Williams will even sneak in for the win. She's got a Globe, a well-received movie, and she's playing a real person.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
It's a lock. (And a very deserved one.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
Jessica Chastain was honestly my favorite thing about The Help, but Octavia's got the Golden Globe and the SAG, so that definitely makes her the probable winner.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
The Artist is a tempting choice for being the likely Best Picture, but, even though I obviously know that a screenplay is more than just dialogue, I really can't see this award going to a screenplay with no dialogue at all. A Separation is also tempting, but I'm just going with the obvious.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: THE DESCENDANTS
This seems to be a race between The Descendants and Moneyball, but with The Descendants's Best Picture chances looking very slim now, I think it'll be rewarded here. Also, I just really hope that Moneyball doesn't get it because that movie was booooooring.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A SEPARATION
OK, A Separation is the only film in this category that I've heard so much raving about. It seems like the only foreign film that even exists from last year. And it even crossed over into the Screenplay category! BUT, I have discovered that the last two films that were nominated for both Foreign Film and Screenplay (and were very popular with audiences too) actually lost BOTH categories. Amelie in 2001 and Pan's Labyrinth in 2006. So I'm actually not so sure about A Separation for the win. I'm still picking it, though, because I don't really know what to pick instead. I guess In Darkness because I've heard of Agnieszka Holland, and her films have been Oscar-nominated a number of times before.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: RANGO
Obviously Pixar is not a contender this year, so the race is a little more open. Rango I think is very popular, and, on a personal level, I certainly think it's brilliant. Plus, it spoofs and references a lot of classic movies, which I think the Academy will appreciate.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: THE ARTIST
My reasoning is, it's a silent film, which means the score (1) is automatically more noticeable, and (2) has to carry the movie even more than usual. But based on what I've heard of all the nominees, Hugo is my personal favorite.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "MAN OR MUPPET"
What the fuck happened with this category this year!? Two songs!? Yeah, this one's definitely no contest.
BEST ART DIRECTION: HUGO
Oh my god, Hugo better win. The clock tower, the automaton, all the mechanical toys, the big dragon and all the props and sets in the movies within the movie - all that stuff is art direction, and it is gorgeous and amazing. It did win the Art Direction Guild/Society/whatever Award, so I'm hoping that'll translate to the Oscars.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: THE TREE OF LIFE
I haven't seen The Tree of Life yet, but even the people who hate it have to concede that it looks gorgeous. And it did win the Society of Cinematographers Award, which predicts the Oscar about half the time. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Hugo won in this category.
BEST FILM EDITING: THE ARTIST
I'm pretty sure this win usually goes to the movie with the most cuts, but I don't know what movie that would be. Moneyball has some montage stuff in it, so maybe that one? But it seems like a lot of times this award also goes to the Best Picture winner, so that's what I'm going with.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: JANE EYRE
At first I was going to go with Anonymous because I figured it must have the most ostentatious designs, but I was surprised to find them actually quite dull and looking like ugly couch fabric. And even though the Jane Eyre costumes seem pretty understated, they're actually very pretty and detailed. I love the striped and plaid fabrics and the shawls and bonnets and Jane's wedding veil.
BEST MAKEUP: THE IRON LADY
I'm relating this to when La Vie en Rose won in 2007. Not only did they make Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher, they made her age too.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: PINA
The only one of these that I really know anything about is Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, which could win just for topicality because the guys just got released from prison. But I really can't get past the title that sounds like an awful B horror movie sequel that you'd find on TV at like 2 in the morning. I'm going with Pina because (1) it's Wim Wenders, and (2) performer profiles apparently have a good track record at the Oscars.
BEST SOUND EDITING: WAR HORSE
BEST SOUND MIXING: HUGO
From what I understand, sound editing is the actual creation of the sounds, and sound mixing has to do with rerecording and putting the sounds all together along with the score and everything. It seems like everyone is predicting Hugo as the frontrunner for both, but I can't discount War Horse, so I'm splitting the difference so that I at least get one right (I hope). And I chose to give Sound Editing to War Horse because in the past 20 years Sound Editing has invariably gone to either an action movie or a war movie.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Rise of the Planet of the Apes won the Visual Effects Society Award, which usually translates to the Oscar. But this is a category in which I'm really really really hoping for a Hugo upset because I personally think the Apes effects look like shit.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: LA LUNA
It's Pixar.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: THE SHORE
Like Best Documentary, I'm going with the The Shore mostly because I'm familiar with the director (he did The Boxer and In the Name of the Father), as well as the actors. It's obviously really professionally done. Honestly, though, I think my personal favorite would likely be Pentecost because it looks hilarious. Just as long as the time machine movie doesn't win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM
Hello, topicality.
BEST PICTURE: THE ARTIST
For a long time I was a little resistant to the idea of a black-and-white silent comedy winning Best Picture in 2012, but as time goes on it has become more and more obvious that there's really no contest here. No one seems to be talking about The Descendants anymore. And forget what I said about The Help pulling an upset; after some more research I've discovered it actually doesn't stand a chance: It doesn't have noms for its director or screenplay, and you want to know the only times a film has ever won Best Picture without at least one of those? Wings in 1927 and Grand Hotel in 1932.
BEST DIRECTOR: MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS (THE ARTIST)
No contest here either. Hazanavicius won the DGA Award, which has predicted the Oscars' Best Director in 58 out of its 64 years. I'm certainly not betting against those odds.
BEST ACTOR: JEAN DUJARDIN (THE ARTIST)
Apparently a lot of "insiders" are still predicting Clooney to win, and I suppose it's possible, but Dujardin has the SAG, a Golden Globe, a plethora of critics awards, the likely Best Picture, and a performance that seriously carries the entire movie.
BEST ACTRESS: VIOLA DAVIS (THE HELP)
I'm honestly still very conflicted about this. Everyone seems to be picking Viola, so I'm not going to be the asshole who doesn't, and, yes, she has the SAG, which is usually a very good Oscar barometer. But usually the person who wins the SAG also gets a Golden Globe, and she didn't. The only actresses to ever pull the Oscar out in that situation were Frances McDormand in 1996 and Halle Berry in 2001. And most times when actresses have won the SAG but then lost the Oscar, they lost it to actresses playing biographical roles. Do not underestimate the Academy's love for biographical roles. But then, of course, Meryl's problem is that her movie, apart from her individual performance, is poorly reviewed. I don't think anyone's ever won such a major award for such a poorly reviewed movie. So I don't know. Perhaps Michelle Williams will even sneak in for the win. She's got a Globe, a well-received movie, and she's playing a real person.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER (BEGINNERS)
It's a lock. (And a very deserved one.)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: OCTAVIA SPENCER (THE HELP)
Jessica Chastain was honestly my favorite thing about The Help, but Octavia's got the Golden Globe and the SAG, so that definitely makes her the probable winner.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
The Artist is a tempting choice for being the likely Best Picture, but, even though I obviously know that a screenplay is more than just dialogue, I really can't see this award going to a screenplay with no dialogue at all. A Separation is also tempting, but I'm just going with the obvious.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: THE DESCENDANTS
This seems to be a race between The Descendants and Moneyball, but with The Descendants's Best Picture chances looking very slim now, I think it'll be rewarded here. Also, I just really hope that Moneyball doesn't get it because that movie was booooooring.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: A SEPARATION
OK, A Separation is the only film in this category that I've heard so much raving about. It seems like the only foreign film that even exists from last year. And it even crossed over into the Screenplay category! BUT, I have discovered that the last two films that were nominated for both Foreign Film and Screenplay (and were very popular with audiences too) actually lost BOTH categories. Amelie in 2001 and Pan's Labyrinth in 2006. So I'm actually not so sure about A Separation for the win. I'm still picking it, though, because I don't really know what to pick instead. I guess In Darkness because I've heard of Agnieszka Holland, and her films have been Oscar-nominated a number of times before.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: RANGO
Obviously Pixar is not a contender this year, so the race is a little more open. Rango I think is very popular, and, on a personal level, I certainly think it's brilliant. Plus, it spoofs and references a lot of classic movies, which I think the Academy will appreciate.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: THE ARTIST
My reasoning is, it's a silent film, which means the score (1) is automatically more noticeable, and (2) has to carry the movie even more than usual. But based on what I've heard of all the nominees, Hugo is my personal favorite.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: "MAN OR MUPPET"
What the fuck happened with this category this year!? Two songs!? Yeah, this one's definitely no contest.
BEST ART DIRECTION: HUGO
Oh my god, Hugo better win. The clock tower, the automaton, all the mechanical toys, the big dragon and all the props and sets in the movies within the movie - all that stuff is art direction, and it is gorgeous and amazing. It did win the Art Direction Guild/Society/whatever Award, so I'm hoping that'll translate to the Oscars.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: THE TREE OF LIFE
I haven't seen The Tree of Life yet, but even the people who hate it have to concede that it looks gorgeous. And it did win the Society of Cinematographers Award, which predicts the Oscar about half the time. But I also wouldn't be surprised if Hugo won in this category.
BEST FILM EDITING: THE ARTIST
I'm pretty sure this win usually goes to the movie with the most cuts, but I don't know what movie that would be. Moneyball has some montage stuff in it, so maybe that one? But it seems like a lot of times this award also goes to the Best Picture winner, so that's what I'm going with.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: JANE EYRE
At first I was going to go with Anonymous because I figured it must have the most ostentatious designs, but I was surprised to find them actually quite dull and looking like ugly couch fabric. And even though the Jane Eyre costumes seem pretty understated, they're actually very pretty and detailed. I love the striped and plaid fabrics and the shawls and bonnets and Jane's wedding veil.
BEST MAKEUP: THE IRON LADY
I'm relating this to when La Vie en Rose won in 2007. Not only did they make Meryl Streep look like Margaret Thatcher, they made her age too.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: PINA
The only one of these that I really know anything about is Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, which could win just for topicality because the guys just got released from prison. But I really can't get past the title that sounds like an awful B horror movie sequel that you'd find on TV at like 2 in the morning. I'm going with Pina because (1) it's Wim Wenders, and (2) performer profiles apparently have a good track record at the Oscars.
BEST SOUND EDITING: WAR HORSE
BEST SOUND MIXING: HUGO
From what I understand, sound editing is the actual creation of the sounds, and sound mixing has to do with rerecording and putting the sounds all together along with the score and everything. It seems like everyone is predicting Hugo as the frontrunner for both, but I can't discount War Horse, so I'm splitting the difference so that I at least get one right (I hope). And I chose to give Sound Editing to War Horse because in the past 20 years Sound Editing has invariably gone to either an action movie or a war movie.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: RISE OF THE PLANET OF THE APES
Rise of the Planet of the Apes won the Visual Effects Society Award, which usually translates to the Oscar. But this is a category in which I'm really really really hoping for a Hugo upset because I personally think the Apes effects look like shit.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT: LA LUNA
It's Pixar.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: THE SHORE
Like Best Documentary, I'm going with the The Shore mostly because I'm familiar with the director (he did The Boxer and In the Name of the Father), as well as the actors. It's obviously really professionally done. Honestly, though, I think my personal favorite would likely be Pentecost because it looks hilarious. Just as long as the time machine movie doesn't win.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: THE TSUNAMI AND THE CHERRY BLOSSOM
Hello, topicality.