Rumblings in North Korea -- maybe
Though I have not written about North Korea, I have long followed the news concerning the sad Stalinist state. Well, via Instapundit, a new story in the news.telegraph:
The first known visual evidence of dissent within the world's most secretive state emerged yesterday when video footage taken in a North Korean factory showed a portrait of the dictator, Kim Jong-il, defaced with graffiti demanding freedom and democracy.
People seem to be getting very excited about this. And it is a big deal in that it is told that in North Korea you and your family can be sent to a prison camp just for folding a currency bill in half before putting it in your pocket (because it would crease the image of the Great Leader).
To be honest, I'm not quite sure what to make of these stories. I know that North Korea is a horrible police state, but the folding-the-bill story sounds like one of the those I-heard-from-my-cousin-who-heard-from-this-guy deals. But if there is any place on Earth where this could be true, it is North Korea.
So what do we make of the defaced poster? Well, it may be the beginning of the end of the regime. It may also be a comon occurrence, and not a harbinger of seismic change, but since access to the place is so carefully controlled, this may simply be the first time we've seen it in the West. It may be a fluke occurrence that also managed, by luck, to get broadcast to the West. It may even be a carefully orchestrated plan by the regime to, I don't know, set the stage for a crackdown, or alternatively, set the stage to loosen the reins a bit. Fact is, a single poster with some unattributed graffiti is not much to base a detailed analysis on. We hope it means the end is near for the North Korean regime, but hope is not the same as factual analysis.
So we'll wait. South Koreans will continue to pray to re-unify with their families in the North, while at the same dreading the day when it will happen, because the social and economic cost will be staggering. Imagine if 20 cousins you've never met and who've been brainwashed all their lives come knocking on your door demanding food, clothing, and a place to hang their portrait of Kim. North Korea is a Gordian knot of the first degree, and it may turn out to be George W. Bush's most vexing challenge in his second term.
The first known visual evidence of dissent within the world's most secretive state emerged yesterday when video footage taken in a North Korean factory showed a portrait of the dictator, Kim Jong-il, defaced with graffiti demanding freedom and democracy.
People seem to be getting very excited about this. And it is a big deal in that it is told that in North Korea you and your family can be sent to a prison camp just for folding a currency bill in half before putting it in your pocket (because it would crease the image of the Great Leader).
To be honest, I'm not quite sure what to make of these stories. I know that North Korea is a horrible police state, but the folding-the-bill story sounds like one of the those I-heard-from-my-cousin-who-heard-from-this-guy deals. But if there is any place on Earth where this could be true, it is North Korea.
So what do we make of the defaced poster? Well, it may be the beginning of the end of the regime. It may also be a comon occurrence, and not a harbinger of seismic change, but since access to the place is so carefully controlled, this may simply be the first time we've seen it in the West. It may be a fluke occurrence that also managed, by luck, to get broadcast to the West. It may even be a carefully orchestrated plan by the regime to, I don't know, set the stage for a crackdown, or alternatively, set the stage to loosen the reins a bit. Fact is, a single poster with some unattributed graffiti is not much to base a detailed analysis on. We hope it means the end is near for the North Korean regime, but hope is not the same as factual analysis.
So we'll wait. South Koreans will continue to pray to re-unify with their families in the North, while at the same dreading the day when it will happen, because the social and economic cost will be staggering. Imagine if 20 cousins you've never met and who've been brainwashed all their lives come knocking on your door demanding food, clothing, and a place to hang their portrait of Kim. North Korea is a Gordian knot of the first degree, and it may turn out to be George W. Bush's most vexing challenge in his second term.