Setting fair expectations

[angerona]

Я видела, что демократам (справедливо ?) говорят, что чтоб Трамп не сделал, все нас будет не устраивать: сделает, как обещал -- так это ж ужасно. Не сделает, как обещал -- так это он, лгун, никаких своих обещаний не выполняет

Comments

[tandem_bike]

your points:

Хорошо:
-- назначение центристкого или социально-либерального судьи в Верховный суд

i think the best is the nomination of a non-politicized, respectable jurist. like Souter was.

Плохо:
-- назначение очень судьи в Верховный Суд (в смысле позиции на аборты и другие социальные issues)

abortion access and gay marriage are IRRETRIEVABLE at this point. in fact too much power is given to teh states in that regard, and they wind up with ridiculous measures that are successful in cutting access to BOTH.

you see, states are more evil than feds, usually. and more corrupt.

-- ослабление НАТО (конкретно ужасно: отказ поддержать члена НАТО в военном конфликте; но и просто слова действующего президента о том, что возможно такой отказ будет -- уже очень плохо).

i am for NATO reform. it is an overrated and useless, biased organization. but getting rid of it entirely would n not be right or possible. so, getting fair money out of participant states is a start - or they are out.

-- признание российского Крыма и/или

[marmir]

Regarding Roe. This SCOTUS did strike down the Texas laws on abortion. Next one may not be so "progressive".

[tandem_bike]

texas got around it already :(

no way to stop those people. one hope is that they will die out.

[fiona_grady]

Я очень рада, что мы в согласии по поводу Крыма, такое мнение не часто увидишь.

[tandem_bike]

why not? it is the pragmatic option.

[mathdad]

It is absolutely the pragmatic option. It may or may not be the right one.

It would be interesting to see what Putin's calculation is in such deal. On the one hand, he likes a war in Ukraine for internal political reasons. On the other hand, sanctions and low oil prices are causing a serious strain on Russian economy. From this point of view, Russia actually doesn't care whether US recognizes Crimea, as long as the sanctions are lifted. In fact, by not recognizing Crimea, US effectively makes it impossible for the rest of Ukraine to join NATO.

What is the downside to not recognizing Crimea, from the US standpoint?

Now that US is ignoring Assad, what exactly does US want from Russia that Russia is not doing on its own?

I don't have a definite opinion here, just some thoughts...

[tandem_bike]

Ukraine should not be allowed near EU or NATO. let it prove to the world it is not an RF-style plutocracy, first.

[mathdad]

Presumably, a path to EU membership could be made contingent on series of reforms. So what if it takes 10-20 years?

[tandem_bike]

eh. look at Greece.

[mathdad]

Well, there are different levels of disfunction. Greece is a mess, but Ukraine is in a league of its own.
To be fair, Greece is far smaller, so its issues are easier to contain. Still, Russia would not be happy if Ukraine
started any sort of closer cooperation talks with EU.

[tandem_bike]

i find it ridiculous that our talking heads are all agog about trump's conversation with the taiwanese, we are to support the ludicrous "one china" policy, and at the same time the 'one russia" policy by putin we consider a threat to world stability??

granted, both are, actually, but the hypocrisy is off the scale when dealing with russia.

[mathdad]

One China policy is a threat to regional stability, not the world as we know it. I don't know the history of Taiwan, but my sense of it is that the differences between China and Taiwan are more political than ethnic/cultural. So if at some point China got to a standard of living at or higher than that of Taiwan, the unification could proceed more or less voluntarily, via a referendum of some kind and partial autonomy along the lines of Hong Kong.

I am worried that if China actually decided to take Taiwan by force then US would not have any good policy options.
I don't know if Trump's phone convo makes this scenario more likely or less likely.

Russia's nuclear arsenal makes it a far more dangerous country, which is why the precedent it set in Crimea deserved condemnation and sanctions. To China's credit, it generally uses its economy rather than military to assert itself, which is a far healthier approach than Russia's.

[e2pii1]

> I don't know the history of Taiwan, but my sense of it is that the differences between China and Taiwan are more political than ethnic/cultural.

Для Крыма/РФ это тем более верно.

> I am worried that if China actually decided to take Taiwan by force then US would not have any good policy options.

Не волнуйтесь: экономическая блокада Китая со стороны США и всех на кого США может надавить будет для Китая и китайских властей намного большей угрозой чем для США (до этого в реале конечно не дойдёт, китайские власти это просчитывают и не пойдут на такое обострение).

> To China's credit, it generally uses its economy rather than military to assert itself

Тут Вы ошибаетесь: ознакомьтесь, что Китай делает в окружающих морях - не слабее путина в Крыму. Тибет и уйгурию Китай не пирожными с колбасой завоевал и удерживает.
И как с экономикой он хулиганил и готов хулиганить это немногим лучше - см. историю с "редкоземельными металлами".

[mathdad]

You make some valid points. China's island building is an unpleasant development (although to be fair it can not be compared to Crimea neither in size nor in population

[e2pii1]

China's island building намного опасней annexing Crimea - China захватывает богатейшие ресурсами (нефть/газ,рыба...) морские акватории, в местах где проходит большая морская торговля; Crimea - не имеющий значения дотационный угол, никак не увеличивающий военно-экономический потенциал путинского режима.

annex Crimea in a more diplomatic manner врядли было бы возможно: украинские политики всё равно бы упёрлись и ни за что бы не соглашались, и межд.сообществу зачем это признавать - всё равно был бы такой же скандал.

большее спокойствие властей China по сравнению с Russia оттого, что военно-экономический потенциал China в будущем скорей будет возрастать, а у Russia - убывать. Поэтому Путин стремится похулиганить сейчас, пока еще есть силы, а China откладывает на потом, рассчитывая потом похулиганить помощнее и поэффективнее.

[mathdad]

US generally has been more sensitive to European issues than to Asia ones, for historical reasons, if nothing else. It is very possible that I am suffering from the same bias.

It will be interesting to see if China becomes more belligerent as its economy slows down.

There are certainly similarities b/w Russia and China. I spent a week in Beijing a year ago and it was interesting that many university buildings had a couple of bored cops in uniform, not unlike the USSR. They were completely ignoring foreigners, however.