WOW!
Senator Arlen Specter (R D)switching from Republican to Democrat!!
This is MAJOR political news as it sets Democrats up to have a 60 vote majority in the Senate.
Immediate ramifications:
Specter was screwed in PA, this is very likely an electoral move at least as much as it is based on philosophy. The Republicans in PA were very likely to run an effective primary challenge against him, or failing that a dem was likely to knock him off in 2010. His favorability was already higher amongst Ds than Rs. PA's primary is closed so only Rs would have had a say, so this was pretty major. Now? He's a god damned blue hero - he got the stimulus passed first and now he's handing the Democrats a dangerous majority.
Second, what does 60 votes actually mean? It's reasonably rare for a vote to be split exactly down party lines, but it's often close - and the odds are about as good for a member to switch on either side, so the total number of caucusing democrats (since there are 2 independents) is a decent proxy for the number of votes you can expect without any other information. But still, it's a razor thin super majority in the sense that a handful of democrats can now be obstructionist, maneuvering the moderate dems to the position of greatest power in the Senate.
Probably most important is the psychology - Republicans now have a very clear campaign mantra (which I'd almost buy - I'm a big fan of divided government) - and the democrats are going to feel extremely emboldened.
This is MAJOR political news as it sets Democrats up to have a 60 vote majority in the Senate.
Immediate ramifications:
Specter was screwed in PA, this is very likely an electoral move at least as much as it is based on philosophy. The Republicans in PA were very likely to run an effective primary challenge against him, or failing that a dem was likely to knock him off in 2010. His favorability was already higher amongst Ds than Rs. PA's primary is closed so only Rs would have had a say, so this was pretty major. Now? He's a god damned blue hero - he got the stimulus passed first and now he's handing the Democrats a dangerous majority.
Second, what does 60 votes actually mean? It's reasonably rare for a vote to be split exactly down party lines, but it's often close - and the odds are about as good for a member to switch on either side, so the total number of caucusing democrats (since there are 2 independents) is a decent proxy for the number of votes you can expect without any other information. But still, it's a razor thin super majority in the sense that a handful of democrats can now be obstructionist, maneuvering the moderate dems to the position of greatest power in the Senate.
Probably most important is the psychology - Republicans now have a very clear campaign mantra (which I'd almost buy - I'm a big fan of divided government) - and the democrats are going to feel extremely emboldened.