Brexit: What's next?
There's a really good article here which goes through the options for the Brexit vote, and what happens next.
Taking a look at them in turn:
1) May's Deal passes.
Really, really unlikely. With the ERG and DUP voting against, plus a bunch of anti-Brexit Conservatives, I really don't think it has anything like the numbers it needs to pass.
2) No Deal.
Also really, really unlikely. Enough MPs know how awful this would be that if we hit February without another alternative, I think that we'd go back to May's deal. (Which is still a deeply unpleasant Hard Brexit which would kill people and tank the economy, but is less apocalyptic.)
3) A second vote.
Only if we look like we're sliding into No Deal. Then back to option (2).
4) A major renegotiation.
The EU have repeatedly said No. And the things that people are talking about renegotiating (like the Irish Backstop) aren't up for grabs. So this isn't happening.
5) A general election.
Really unlikely. Theresa May probably isn't going to call one, and without her doing that, it can't get the 2/3 majority it needs.
6) A vote of no confidence.
Slightly more likely. But still incredibly unlikely. The DUP have said they'd support May, so you'd need some pro-Brexit Conservatives to vote no-confidence in their own party. Corbyn is clinging on to this, but it's almost certainly not happening. We'll probably need to fail this before we go to (7).
7) Another referendum.
I don't see any other alternatives which might get a majority. So I suspect we get this by default. You'll get enough Conservatives and Labour voting for it that it will probably go through. And it's a hideous compromise that allows everyone to pretend that it's Not Their Fault.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are
comments there.
Taking a look at them in turn:
1) May's Deal passes.
Really, really unlikely. With the ERG and DUP voting against, plus a bunch of anti-Brexit Conservatives, I really don't think it has anything like the numbers it needs to pass.
2) No Deal.
Also really, really unlikely. Enough MPs know how awful this would be that if we hit February without another alternative, I think that we'd go back to May's deal. (Which is still a deeply unpleasant Hard Brexit which would kill people and tank the economy, but is less apocalyptic.)
3) A second vote.
Only if we look like we're sliding into No Deal. Then back to option (2).
4) A major renegotiation.
The EU have repeatedly said No. And the things that people are talking about renegotiating (like the Irish Backstop) aren't up for grabs. So this isn't happening.
5) A general election.
Really unlikely. Theresa May probably isn't going to call one, and without her doing that, it can't get the 2/3 majority it needs.
6) A vote of no confidence.
Slightly more likely. But still incredibly unlikely. The DUP have said they'd support May, so you'd need some pro-Brexit Conservatives to vote no-confidence in their own party. Corbyn is clinging on to this, but it's almost certainly not happening. We'll probably need to fail this before we go to (7).
7) Another referendum.
I don't see any other alternatives which might get a majority. So I suspect we get this by default. You'll get enough Conservatives and Labour voting for it that it will probably go through. And it's a hideous compromise that allows everyone to pretend that it's Not Their Fault.
Original post on Dreamwidth - there are
comments there.