Nov 13, 2016 12:00
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Comments 12
I would only advise people who've both read his "Story of Your Life" and seen the new movie Arrival to read my comment on them.
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Next time we get a boom, having plans in place to take advantage of the bust would be useful...
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Timing is the crucial thing, and that is horrendously tricky to judge. Having enough money not to get wiped out waiting is kinda hard, too.
Also, government economic interference can sink predictions. Or regulatory (to ensure that only the big boys get to make major profits). Very high minimum stakes, for example
I got bored waiting for a house price bubble collapse almost 10 years ago (and that was after waiting longer than I expected).
I find my self generally a not-very-useful 10 - 15 years ahead of the curve in most societal and economic trends. This error margin is enough to make sure that I rarely profit (having become bored waiting, and thinking it is all already over because everyone has already seen it are the usual reasons).
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Thank you for the summation of this particular issue.
I have thought about it myself and have heard some opinions, but nothing this concise. I have tried to show the other side of the coin to people who expressed deep resentment about the deterioration of their quality of life/financial status and who often pick the wrong culprit, but I never can find the best analogies or the right words for a historic perspective.
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I assume that's directed at the original article, and not my comment :-).
It is a fabulous article, way better written than I ever could. :-) I find it some justification for me having been banging on on this topic for years. I'm glad to see the experts spreading the thinking more widely!
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I have since found other articles and comments that barely scratch the surface; as if this were a new issue the writers have just begun to think about. I also found this: http://forsetti.tumblr.com/post/153181757500/on-rural-america-understanding-isnt-the-problem
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