Interesting Links for 20-07-2016
Government lawyer tells court UK will not trigger Article 50 this year
(tags: uk europe )
David Cameron built fewest houses of any Prime Minister since 1923 (Frankly, Labour's record not much better)
(tags: housing uk epicfail )
People with low cognitive needs don't care about spoilers (and they don't bother people with low need for affect)
(
( Read more... )
It seems remarkably clear to me that the two ends of the party don't actually belong in the same party - the differences are too large for it to be stable (and, indeed, they were only stable under Blair because of a brief decade of sustained economic growth which kept everyone quiet-ish).
And yes, UKIP would quite possible have done so, and Cameron could have taken them up on it. But the argument isn't that a Eurosceptic party couldn't have demanded things, it's that a large chunk of the population feels taken for granted by the current parties, and have lashed out. Whereas if there was a party which was there for them (rather than being off chasing the votes of the swing counties) they wouldn't feel so utterly disenfranchised as to, effectively, set fire to their home.
Reply
It seems remarkably clear to me that the two ends of the party don't actually belong in the same party
I dunno. This problem has been around in the Labour movement in some form or other since the Menshevik-Bolshevik split and probably before that. I'd hesitate to say the differences are so large that a split is inevitable - though mainly because I am holding off from any predictions about what will happen in this climate.
feel so utterly disenfranchised as to, effectively, set fire to their home
The pro-Brexit people I've spoken to are almost certainly a small unrepresentative subset, but all of them seemed to genuinely think voting Leave was a good idea and would make things better, rather than being an act of desperate self-immolation. The only sense of disenfranchisement they've consistently mentioned is having had increased European integration for the last 40 years. (See e.g. http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-when-article-50-why-did-people-vote-wages-housing-market-young-people-a7141206.html) Sure, in a proportional system more Tory-voting Leavers might have voted for UKIP, or Conservatives.Eurosceptic, but my guess is that that wouldn't have made them less likely to vote Leave, surely? I'll grant there's some correlation between a sense of disenfranchisement and economic misery and voting Leave, but it's a long way from being perfect and complete.
In broader terms, much as I would love to believe it, I really don't think improving the electoral system is an effective solution to most deep-seated problems. France has a slightly-less-awful system than FPTP (if no absolutely majority, the top two candidates have a runoff election - famously, you vote with your heart in the first round and with your head in the second) and that doesn't seem to have prevented widespread disenfranchisement and the rise of the Front National. Italy has a proportional system (varying over time, I've lost track of the current changes) and is perhaps the runner-up to Belgium for most dysfunctional politics in Western Europe.
Reply
Of course they would. But that would be something that would only need to be _really_ focussed on when it came to time to worry about coalitions. And labour.Right might decide it had more in common with Lib.Dem or Conservative.Sane than Labour.Left. Or whoever.
"my guess is that that wouldn't have made them less likely to vote Leave, surely?"
Well, we clearly disagree here. The number of people voting from rural areas who voted to leave because they believed that the current system doesn't work for them is my basis for thinking that way. Not all people would feel that way, obviously. But Labour basically abandoned their heartlands in order to grab the centre-ground, and you can see how many of those areas voted in the referendum.
And I don't think that improving the electoral system is an effective solution to everything, all by itself. But I do think that it's a vital part of it, and that any solution which doesn't include giving a voice to the disenfranchised is doomed.
Reply
Leave a comment