Interesting Links for 18-03-2016
Sugar tax: What is the UK's most sugary drink?
(tags: sugar drinking uk tax )
Reality Check: How soon can Turkey join the EU?
(tags: turkey eu )
Why Osborne’s sugar tax is half baked
(tags: sugar tax uk viaPatrickHadfield )
What's going on with the UK and sin taxes?
(tags: tax uk viaPatrickHadfield )
I have never wanted to be Taylor Swift more
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The person having the greatest Number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice.
If I were the Republican Party I'd not place my full faith and confidence in the 12th Amendment.
Firstly, voters don't like being gamed. They don't like it if they see you doing it. They like it even less if they don't see you doing it until after you've done it. Running a "third party" spoiler candidate as a transparent ploy to queer the election and have the House decide might backfire badly. Running a non-transparent ploy and surprising the electorate with an engineered House selection might backfire for generations.
Secondly, for the ploy to succeed Clinton has to not get half of the electoral college votes. Against a divided opposition where most states are winner takes all in the electoral college. And it is a divided opposition. Trump would be the official Republican nominee. The actual Republican nominee would be AN Other. The party machine would be split between Trump supporters, Not-Trump supporters, and those who believe that the official nominee should be the actual nominee in deed as in word.
Thirdly, for the ploy to succeed the Republicans need to have a majority in the House and in a special way. There's no guarantee that a divided Republican Party (with a huge question mark over who would actually be the Republican President would not lose seats.)
Fourthly, one of the Republican Party's problems with Trump is that he doesn't do much for the down ticket. I.e he doesn't raise funds for Republican candidates for other offices and, because he's extreme he drives moderates away from the Republican Party towards the Democrats or staying at home. So, Trump, alone as official nominee, could damage the Republicans general performance in the election. In addition, if you're a swing voter and don't like Trump but are happy with a Republican Representative then, if you thought the House would foist Trump on you against your vote you might think twice about voting for Republican Congress.
Fifthly, if I'm reading the 12th Amendment correctly (and I may not be) it's not a vote of the House by individuals. It's a vote of House by States. So Alaska votes and counts as 1. California votes and counts as 1. Currently the Republicans have the majority of Representatives in 33 of the 50 States, the Democrats in 14 with 3 split. However, 13 States with a Republican majority only have a mahority of 1. In a situation where the Republicans do badly in the House elections for a variety of reasons it entirely possible that they lose their majority of states.
So the ploy could self-destruct if voters don't like it and it also requires the Republicans to win the House in a particular way whilst fighting their own nominee for President.
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