Interesting Links for 21-02-2016

[andrewducker]

See the Cast of 'Ferris Bueller's Day Off' Then and Now (tags: FerrisBueller movies age ) Homeopathy successfully turns water into a placebo (tags: homeopathy placebo ) Global wind power capacity tops nuclear energy for first time (tags: nuclearpower windpower renewables ) CIA-backed rebels are now fighting Pentagon-backed militants in Syria (

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

I think you're 30% capacity factor for wind might be a bit out of date. The National Energy Research Lab have a nice map showing the potential of areas in the USA for onshore wind with a capacity above 35%. The chart sitting next to the map is shows the area of land by capacity factor. With hub hights of 140m they are estimating neary 2 million square kilometers of area where you would expect a capacity factor of 60% or more.

http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/windmaps/resource_potential.asp

The Rameez Naam essays (linked below and from there to the other five essays in the series) are, to be fair, very optimistic about solar PV and onshore wind but it's a pretty meticulous examination of the technology and economic factors operating on the renewables industry.

http://rameznaam.com/2015/08/30/how-steady-can-the-wind-blow/

He's estimating an on-going learning curve effect of about 16%. Clearly there is no guarantee that this continues for either wind or solar but there's doesn't appear to be signs that it is abating in the near term.

And there are a few other links suggesting capacity factors of significantly better than 35%

http://cleantechnica.com/2012/07/27/wind-turbine-net-capacity-factor-50-the-new-normal/

http://en.openei.org/apps/TCDB/

I think where the technology movement is is in the materials used for turbine blades - making them strong enough to cope with the blade tip speeds experienced on very large turbines mounted on large towers and technology of getting those very large blades and towers from the factory to site safely and cheaply. The trick isn't to be able to build a 140m high tower, it is to build a 140m tower cheaper and easier than an 80m tower.

On-shore wind looks like it is pretty much already as cheap as the grid average and solar PV should be there soon.

I'd pray in aid the attempts by the Saudis to destroy renewables just before they become cost competitive and start putting a cap on energy prices.

[andrewducker]

Thank you.

[resonant]

Solar PV is now cheaper than coal (amortized cost per GWh), and plummeting towards natural gas. The cost curve is unbelievably steep. I have no idea where it will bottom out. But it's already dropped so much that labour (which used to be a trivial portion of the cost of a panel) is now a significant portion of the cost; we're having to transfer some of my company's solar panel production lines to Thailand because of lower wages.

[danieldwilliam]

Indeed. I was reading (somewhere) a nice article that was discussing how reduction in cost for the panels meant that the proportion of the cost of an installed domestic PV system had gone from 80:20 panel to balance of plant to now 45:55 panel to balance of plant. It meant that even though the cost of the panels was coming down just as quickly as before buyers weren't noticing because a 5% reduction in 80% of the cost of a system is 4% but a 5% reduction in 45% of the cost of a system is less than 2%. So it was about time that the people making inverters and racking and providing the installation labour did some work to reduce their costs.