Interesting Links for 19-10-2015

[andrewducker]

• Nice Fire Phoenix Puppet
  • (tags: video fire puppets )
• Amazon sues1,114 fake reviewers
  • (tags: Amazon reviews fraud )
• Soldiers share fascinating (and frankly horrifying) stories about Afghanistan
  • (tags: afghanistan )
• There will be no second Scottish Independence referendum without a year of 60% support
  • (tags: Scotland independence referendum snp )
• MIT

Comments

[danieldwilliam]

I think it's going to be difficult for them. You can already see the build up of difficults with things like the Edinburgh West MP and Police Scotland and educational attainment.

My observation of governments is that they either get kicked out after one term or keep going until 3 things build up. 1 is the number of potential scandals, which then start breaking in a rush, making you look sleazy and corrupt. 2 is the number of errors of policy or implementation or the build up of the downsides of policy decisions you knowingly took, things aren't working as well as you said they would and you start looking inept. 3, disappointed ambition, sacked former ministers, losing by-election candidates, former spin-doctors and Spads all start chirping away about how, if only they had been listened to things would be perfect now, making you look fractious.

And then the public says, that's enough, out you go.

They will the 2016 election by an unprecidented margin. Not sure if that will give them enough momentum to carry them through to winning the 2021 election (they are being de-synched with Westminster in 2020 I think.) and thence on to a second referendum in 2023.

So, I guess we get a one term coalition government in 2021 and IndyRef 2 in 2027 - ish. I'm guessing.

[skington]

There's a fourth: running out of ideas. This arguably did for the Jospin government in 2002.

[danieldwilliam]

Yes, yes, you are spot on. Thanks.