I had an odd discussion about voting systems

Oct 16, 2015 20:43

Over on Twitter I was having an odd argument about voting systems, where I really didn't understand the other person's argument. Probably because trying to put across a significant point in 140 character is. both hard and frustrating. So I offered to stick up a post about it, so we could continue the conversation over here. That being the case, ( Read more... )

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steer October 16 2015, 20:14:43 UTC
Note that what I am about to say here is in no way a defence of FPTP. STV is a superior system to FPTP. If the choice was there tomorrow and it was STV vs FPTP I would vote STV. Because I support something does not mean I support any argument for it. My pet peeve is people making erroneous arguments for stuff I support.

OK -- so I start from the standpoint if you're going to look at a news item and go "hooray, this supports my viewpoint" you have to ask yourself the question "would you have accepted this argument if it was made in favour of something you disagree with". He're we're told "Electoral system X was used and 76% of people got their first preference". In general if you are told "X is good because Y=Z" you have to ask
(a) does Y=Z actually represent a "good" result
and
(b) is this a representative comparison of X versus some alternative
and
(c) is Y what you should look at anyway.

Continued next post.

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steer October 16 2015, 20:15:01 UTC
Taking these in turn, firstly is "76% of people got their first preference" actually a large number of people to get their first preference. No, it's not. It's actually very easy to have a high proportion of people get their first preference results in most elections. This was for the Scottish local elections of 2012 I am guessing -- if not some of the rest of this looks a bit silly but the general point applies. I am presuming their result means that person got their first preference in that ward. In most places this meant three or four candidates to each ward I think. Assume 3 for pessimism. If you simply threw the votes away and elected 1 SNP, 1 labour and 1 tory you get 76% without looking at any votes. That particular election had actually a quite diverse vote split too. If you looked at (say) the 2010 general election then you would get 88% of people getting first preference by giving every seat a tory, labour and LD candidate irrespective of the votes. The 76% figure seems high because we're not used to analysing ( ... )

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 20:31:38 UTC
So they are comparing "there was one person elected, you got the one you wanted most" with "there are three or four people elected, you got one of the ones you wanted".Except that a lot of the time people don't. As I said in paragraph four. Because you frequently end up with very similar distributions of votes across areas. And thus all three of them voting in the party with 40% of the vote, and three SNP councillors elected. Which is one of the reasons why Scotland's local elections got more diverse after STV, and we went from lots of councils that had one party in control to the vast majority of them being either minority or coalition ( ... )

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steer October 16 2015, 20:38:34 UTC
You seriously don't consider this a dishonest comparison? I am gobsmacked. So if it was the other way round, they compared the number of people who got their first pref in a single member STV election with the number of people who got their first pref in a multi-member FPTP (which, by the way, optimises first pref wins by design) then you'd say "oh, good point, nice graphic, FPTP must have some good points I hadn't previously grasped".

I'm sorry but I view it as amazingly dishonest.

If you're taking this as an argument for multi-member versus single member then... well, it's an argument... it's not a great argument.

You keep coming across as if systems can only have one advantage. And that's simply not true.

Yes, but on the other hand, you're looking at something that STV is terrible at and being mislead by an abuse of stats into believing it is good at it. STV is bad at getting people their first choice candidate. This is by design.

what system you're thinking would produce it that's actually being suggested by anyone?The ( ... )

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 20:46:19 UTC
I don't consider it dishonest, no. Because I know, from looking at the results, repeatedly, that it does have that effect overall - if you took three constituencies next to each other before, and the same ones now that they're joined, the results are more diverse, and more people do get the candidate they wanted. If the results had been "one of each" before and were still "one of each" now, then yes, I'd agree that it was dishonest.

"you're looking at something that STV is terrible at "

No, I'm not. Because it seems to me that it is better than FPTP at it. And AV.

If anyone was actively suggesting FPTP multi-candidate elections for the UK then I'd understand comparing it with that, but as nobody is, I really don't see the point, any more than I'm comparing STV with Condorcet when gauging fairness.

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steer October 16 2015, 20:54:46 UTC
Well, we clearly have a markedly different opinion of what counts as a reasonable comparison because I couldn't sleep at night if I'd produced that info graphic.

Because it seems to me that it is better than FPTP at it.

It really is not. Multi-party FPTP is absolutely the optimal system for that metric.

If anyone was actively suggesting FPTP multi-candidate elections for the UK then I'd understand comparing it with that

That really does seem a cop out. Well, we *could* compare with a system that would be much better at this yes...

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 20:58:16 UTC
That really does seem a cop out. Well, we *could* compare with a system that would be much better at this yes...

But why would we, as nobody is suggesting it? The infographic is comparing "Here's what happened under FPTP" with "Here's what happens under STV". If you want to go off and compare to 20 other voting systems that's your prerogative, but I fail to see what it has to do with this comparison right here.

I mean you seem to be floundering around here, both objecting to the actual evidence that STV produces more diversity, and more people getting a result they want, and then complaining that they didn't do the comparison that you would have liked them to make. It all seems very defensive, and I can't work out why.

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steer October 16 2015, 21:01:39 UTC
the actual evidence that STV produces more diversity

AUGH! I could scream. You're a clever person. Why are you falling for this.

1) This tells us *nothing* about diversity. It doesn't even measure it.

2) This tells us *nothing* about STV. It tells us about multi-candidate elections. Almost any reasonable electoral system for multi-party elections would get that 76% figure. To be honest the surprising thing is how low it is.

Honestly, I know you're a big fan of PR but this tells us absolutely nothing about this.

It does tell us quite clearly that if you elect more people in an election then more people get the one they wanted most. That is not a surprise.

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 21:09:11 UTC
"1) This tells us *nothing* about diversity. It doesn't even measure it."

I didn't say it did. I said I had observed it, upthread. You seem to be ignoring large chunks of what I've written.

I don't consider it dishonest, no. Because I know, from looking at the results, repeatedly, that it does have that effect overall - if you took three constituencies next to each other before, and the same ones now that they're joined, the results are more diverse, and more people do get the candidate they wanted. If the results had been "one of each" before and were still "one of each" now, then yes, I'd agree that it was dishonest

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steer October 16 2015, 21:02:54 UTC
Look, we're not going to agree here so I'm going to back out of this. This touches all of the things I hate most... people making bad arguments from non-evidence and claiming it is support for something I actually do support.

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 21:09:41 UTC
Ok, I shall shut up now.

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steer October 16 2015, 21:10:23 UTC
And at the risk of breaking my "last word" thing, I do enjoy our discussions even when we disagree.

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 21:11:07 UTC
Me too. And I am glad I posted this so that we could actually get a _decent_ disagreement out of it!

Hope you're doing something nice this weekend :-)

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steer October 16 2015, 21:12:07 UTC
Bit of work bit of gym and seeing the Sisters and Black Moth on Sunday. Hope you are having a good chilled weekend.

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andrewducker October 16 2015, 21:13:27 UTC
I shall be envious of you seeing The Sisters.

I'm having breakfast down by the beach, and then a friend is having a party _and_ there's a housewarming. Oh the horrors :-)

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steer October 16 2015, 21:14:00 UTC
(Laugh) Have a good one Andy.

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