May 26, 2015 12:00
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I expect USian cities that feel confident about their economic future will follow suit and raise their local minimum wages to circa $20 an hour.
Those less certain will probably stick with a now significantly lower minimum wage.
Those cities correctly confident about their future will see people immigrating to them and a virtuous cycle of increased population and productivity (if you're paying someone $20 you want to make sure they are doing good work and plenty of it). Those correctly unconfident will see good people drift away. And the cities that were too pessmistic should see shortages of labour begin to drive up wages.
I'll be interested to see what the smaller cities near to the larger $20/hr do. Are they able to keep their minimum wage low and attract low skilled work in to their cities? Maybe - depends a lot on the nature of the work I think and the relative bouyancy of the neighbouring cities' economies.
My expectation is that this will spread quite rapidlly through the US and put a new floor under wages and one that stiumulates economic growth significantly as the marginal propensity to spend is higher if you are on lower wages.
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