Quoth the leader of the Labour Party: "If the price of having a Labour government is a deal or coalition with the SNP, it’s not going to happen
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1) School playground tribal politics - Miliband knows the Labour backbenchers will destroy any coalition / arrangement with the SNP out of pure spite over the nasty fighting that's been going on in Scotland, so as that's not going to work out anyway, he's hoping to get the tiny bit of political capital available from sinking the Conservative scare message about the SNP tail wagging the dog / privileges for Scotland / breakup of the union.
2) Labour don't actually want the next government because they can see the economy is still so screwed that no-one will ever forgive them for what they are going to have to do, so are clutching any opportunity to look principled while throwing it away...
After that it gets into deep conspiracy theory weirdness where the backers of both main parties somehow are really scared of the SNP.
I really don't understand the fear though. If they don't want to give more powers to Scotland then a tiny party can't force them to do so.
Frankly, I can think of nothing more likely to cause another, successful, Independence referendum than Labour treating the 56% of people who vote SNP as if they have The Plague.
As I said, someone who knows things being afraid of giving more powers to Scotland (as opposed to than The Credulous Electorate, some portion of which probably do) is way down the list.
My leading theory is still schoolyard politics - Labour are pretty bad for that - remember the backbench MPs breaking ranks to give TV interviews about how they would wreck any attempt at a rainbow coalition last time round.
So it seems likely to me that some dangerous minority of Labour MPs have promised to break ranks if Miliband even considers a deal with the SNP, so as that's off the table he is making all the political hay of it that is available (as the Conservatives are definitely targetting Labour with 'the SNP will make them do bad things' messages).
He's an idiot. He's allowed the Tories to set the agenda and the right-wing press to set the agenda. And the moron has probably doomed himself in the process.
Leaves him with the option of running a minority government which will survive what, maybe 18 months? Before he's gone, the Labour party need a new leader, and it's general election time again.
- Scotland get even more determined to vote SNP - SNP get bloody tons of seats. - Tories and Lib Dems form coalition - They do Queens speech - Labour say that if SNP don't vote it down, they'll get the Tory government they fear. - SNP and Labour vote down Coalition Government - Labour make queen's speech. - It stands. - Labour say "If you start voting against our stuff, SNP, you'll just cause chaos, so you'd better tow the line" - SNP nod their heads sagely, but silently and behave for about 5 minutes. - SNP start voting down anything they don't like - Everybody's south of the border is unhappy, as the SNP can veto everything. SNP agitate that this situation is wholly unnecessary, with a hint that it's the English administration's hatred of the Scots causing this. - Another election - Scotland votes SNP again, possibly more fervently, as it's Westminster's fault.
It doesn't take a two thirds majority to repeal the Fixed Term Parliament Act -- a simple majority in both Commons and Lords will do, the same as for any other legislation. It's not possible to pass legislation that has a higher threshold than that for repeal. It only takes a two thirds majority to call an early election under the Act.
Part of my understanding is that the Fixed Term Parliament Act leaves the door open for a minority government without a confidence and supply agreement. Which would allow a Labour minority government to operate on a vote by vote basis. In which case they're assuming that LibDem and SNP MPs would be inclined to vote with them, not with the Tories...
I've heard this claim but I'm not sure how you think parliamentary procedure has changed. We have previously had minority governments with no confidence and supply. The only change to a "hostile" removal of a government is governments can no longer be removed by losing a vote considered crucial -- (it was never constitutionally clear what counted as such a vote and certainly governments have lost important votes to them.)
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My leading theories are:
1) School playground tribal politics - Miliband knows the Labour backbenchers will destroy any coalition / arrangement with the SNP out of pure spite over the nasty fighting that's been going on in Scotland, so as that's not going to work out anyway, he's hoping to get the tiny bit of political capital available from sinking the Conservative scare message about the SNP tail wagging the dog / privileges for Scotland / breakup of the union.
2) Labour don't actually want the next government because they can see the economy is still so screwed that no-one will ever forgive them for what they are going to have to do, so are clutching any opportunity to look principled while throwing it away...
After that it gets into deep conspiracy theory weirdness where the backers of both main parties somehow are really scared of the SNP.
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Frankly, I can think of nothing more likely to cause another, successful, Independence referendum than Labour treating the 56% of people who vote SNP as if they have The Plague.
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My leading theory is still schoolyard politics - Labour are pretty bad for that - remember the backbench MPs breaking ranks to give TV interviews about how they would wreck any attempt at a rainbow coalition last time round.
So it seems likely to me that some dangerous minority of Labour MPs have promised to break ranks if Miliband even considers a deal with the SNP, so as that's off the table he is making all the political hay of it that is available (as the Conservatives are definitely targetting Labour with 'the SNP will make them do bad things' messages).
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Leaves him with the option of running a minority government which will survive what, maybe 18 months? Before he's gone, the Labour party need a new leader, and it's general election time again.
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Though I don't think one can over-state the animosity that exists between the SNP and Scottish-Labour now. The fighting is pretty brutal.
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- Scotland get even more determined to vote SNP
- SNP get bloody tons of seats.
- Tories and Lib Dems form coalition
- They do Queens speech
- Labour say that if SNP don't vote it down, they'll get the Tory government they fear.
- SNP and Labour vote down Coalition Government
- Labour make queen's speech.
- It stands.
- Labour say "If you start voting against our stuff, SNP, you'll just cause chaos, so you'd better tow the line"
- SNP nod their heads sagely, but silently and behave for about 5 minutes.
- SNP start voting down anything they don't like
- Everybody's south of the border is unhappy, as the SNP can veto everything. SNP agitate that this situation is wholly unnecessary, with a hint that it's the English administration's hatred of the Scots causing this.
- Another election
- Scotland votes SNP again, possibly more fervently, as it's Westminster's fault.
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It'll take both Tories and Labour to do it (two-thirds majority), but I think they'll decide that it's for the best.
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